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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 12 November 2012

Weekend review (10th-11th Nov)

Although the quality of horseracing over the weekend wasn't great, there were some stirring performances worthy of entry into the notebook. Most notably, in my opinion, from HOUBLON DES OBEAUX at  Wincanton who looked a decent chaser in the making when taking the novice chase from the front. It was not until stepped-up to 3-mile as a hurdler that we saw his true worth when beating reliable yardstick Kayf Aramis on the 1st January this year at Cheltenham. He then followed that up with a good 4th in the Pertemps final at the Cheltenham Festival (again over 3-mile) confirming his liking for the course. As such, we should see some improvement when stepped-up in trip to 3-mile (Saturdays win was over 2m5f) and he looks a live RSA Chase candidate for next March. Oh, and I named him as one of my 5 selections on Saturday morning, so his win at odds of 9/1 was very welcome.

In the Elite Hurdle that followed, ZARKANDAR looked back his best when beating his stablemate Prospect Wells - in receipt of 17lb and ridden by Ruby Walsh. He was another of my 5 Saturday selections and I was most surprised to be able to obtain odds of 7/2 (he eventually had an SP of 100/30). ZARKANDAR was my Champion Hurdle selection last March when he probably wasn't quite right on his recovery from injury, but he has certainly thrown down the gauntlet with this performance.

My selection in the Badger Ales Trophy chase, No Loose Change, was subject of a bit of a gamble having been 20/1 in the morning; his eventual SP was 9/1. He still looked capable of being placed 4-out but at that point his stamina gave way and he pulled-up quickly before the 3rd-last. He's not looked a battler in previous performances, so he may be one to note if his sights are lowered, especially if dropped in trip to less than 2m6f.

At Kelso, my selection Stagecoach Pearl ran no sort of race at all and this run is (perhaps) best ignored. I'd say the same about the final Saturday selection Graduation Day who ran at Sandown. He beat the race winner Time For Spring when they met at Cheltenham and I had expected him to confirm that form. However, in winning at Sandown, Time For Spring recorded his 4th win (plus 2 x 2nds) from 8 races when going right-handed. Going left handed (like at Cheltenham) he is no wins from 7 races. Charlie Longsdon (trainer of Time For Spring) said the long-term objective for the horse was the Kim Miur at the Cheltenham
Festival but, given the horses preference for going right-handed, I would forget a return there next March. Make note of Imperial Circus who ran a  cracker considering it was only his 2nd chase race.

So, all-in-all a decent performance from my selections on Saturday with 2 winners at odds of 9/1 and 100/30 from the 5 named horses.

Other performance of note were from GALLOX BRIDGE (Sandown 12:45, 10th Nov) who led for a long way before losing out to the eventual winner. I reckon the ground was against this horse and a much improved performance could be due on better (ie good-to-soft) ground. VALID REASON (Sandown 3:00, 10th Nov) was also eye-catching over a 2-mile trip that was almost certainly on the short-side as he won over 2m5f at Towcester last December. He'd been brought back to fitness on the flat since his summer break, and he can improve on this performance if stepped-up in trip NTO.

One from my Horses-to-Follow list for last season (I haven't put one together for this season) runs today - SARANDO. On paper, he stands little chance in the 2:25 at Carlisle but, if you dig a little deeper, there is a glimmer of a chance. He won this race last year, and he won it easily. He'll handle the ground and the trip is no problem, but the same can be said for the fav Across The Bay who comes here with a chase win LTO. Cappa Bleu has the Grand National as the long-term target and connections won't be wanting to win this and jeopardise his current rating of 147; in fact, they probably want it to be around OR140 come the Spring. I had SARANDO as a potential OR150 chaser after he won this race last season, and he ran well for a long way in the Hennessey Gold Cup (before falling) off a OR149 rating. So, at level weights, he could give the fav Across The Bay who won LTO off OR135 a run for his money and at 7/1 (with Stan James) he is worth a wager.

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