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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 9 November 2012

Cue Card - handicap blown

We had a good result with the blog selection last Friday, but today's racing - despite there being 3 jumps meetings on at Fontwell, Musselburgh and Hexham - looks uninspiring.  When I'm faced with such fare, then I usually try and fathom some value by paying closer attention to the trainers and where they have sent their horses, and who they've booked to ride them.

For instance, at Fontwell, jockey Daryl Jacob has only one ride and that on the Seamus Mullins trained Annimation on the 1:40. However, at odds of 5/2 for this mares only beginners chase I would not be going overboard to get on. Trainer Lydia Richards sends just Venetian Lad to the track for the 2:40 when he'll face just 3 rivals and he should scoot home and record a fifth course win. Again tho' the best odds offered - evens - are skinny, and are probably only worth taking if you're a connection willing to have a "lump" on. Considering how well this horse has run at Fontwell and that he's just a 7yo, I find it odd that his syndicate are having to advertise remaining shares in the horse in today's Racing Post. He's lightly raced, stays 3-mile, and goes on soft ground so there are plenty of opportunities for him and he's won over £11,000 to date.

The meeting at Hexham has little to recommend it on paper, altho' there is an interesting novice hurdle at 3:00 over an extended 2m4f. I'm quite taken by ASHES HOUSE and that trainer Tim Vaughan has made the long journey north from south Wales so this horse can run its debut hurdle. A winner over 3-mile in a point-to-point, he should stay this trip without any bother and the soft going wont phase him either. It is also Richard Killoran's only ride of the day and so odds of 9/4 (see Bet365 and sportingodds) look tempting.

Try as I might, I can't find anything at Musselburgh.  

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, CUE CARD took the Haldon Gold Cup in emphatic style, just as I expected he would. Racing off OR157, CUE CARD was absolutely thrown-in and, in my opinion, should have been aimed at the Paddy Power at Cheltenham on 17th November, rather than this race.  I agreed with connections who thought the horse had the potential to win a Grade 1 chase this season after a very good performance in the Arkle behind Sprinter Sacre last March. It is a missed opportunity that, having such a high opinion of the horse's ability, they did not take advantage of it and the lenient handicap mark he held by going for the Paddy Power. Still, no point crying about it; the horse done good and won well. Now, the question is whether he will stay 3-mile around Kempton in the KGV. I think his style of running - from the front - is well suited to Kempton, but I'm not tempted by the 10/1 on offer (tho' I admit I took 20/1 for the race some time ago). This year's KGV looks like being very competitive and if you cast your eye over the antepost list of odds for the race there are some interesting observations, eg: Kauto Stone @ 16/1; Captain Chris @ 25/1 along with Hunt Ball, The Giant Bolster and Bobs Worth; and what about Last Instalment @ 50/1. For me, Long Run is more of a "grinder" who may be more suited by a race like the Welsh National that the KGV. I'm more interested in Grand Crus @ 5/1 who may prefer a track like Kempton over Cheltenham as a chaser.  

The blog will be back tomorrow, and the format for the immediate future is to publish online on Friday & Saturday, with a review of the weekends racing on Monday

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