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Saturday 17 November 2012

Paddy Power Gold Cup

A bit of a late posting of the blog for today, but then it looks a decent day’s horseracing ahead. I’ll be posting this at least an hour before any of my selections run.
A big day at Cheltenham and the feature is the Paddy Power Gold Cup but, first, I’ll take a quick look at the novice chase at 1:20 over 3-mile. The going is soft today, and that is the only issue with not making SIRE COLLONGES my wager of the day. He really does look the real deal and altho’ giving 3lb to Sea Of Thunder – who he beat LTO – I really can’t s4ee the latter reversing the form. I was also impressed with the debut chase win of Masters Hill and he could be seriously under-rated.
The Henrietta Knight handicap chase over 3m3f is at 1:55 and this looks like being a cracker of a race. It takes a very good horse to carry more than 11st to win this race and, looking at past winners, the market usually gets this race right with no winner being longer than 9/1 in the past 10 years. I can’t see any of those at the head of the market and carrying more than 11st to be up to the task. Galaxy Rock maybe, but none of the others. As such, I’m going for BRADLEY who will love the ground, and the trip and looks like he is still improving – he was staying on really well here LTO. He was 13/2 earlier on, and is best –priced now at 6/1 and he looks a good bet to win. There are 4-places in this race, so if you are looking for a long-odds each/way chance Any Currency @ 16/1 was 2nd in this race in 2010, and Monbeg Dude was going well until falling 4-out here LTO and he’s 40/1.
The feature race is at 2:35, and it all hangs on whether Grand Crus is as good as they say he is. I bought the T-shirt last season, and thought he was a potential Gold Cup horse before he flopped in the RSA. Now, I’m not so sure and, at just 2/1 for one of the most competitive handicaps of the jumps season, I won’t be staking my money on him to find out. The fact that Nicky Henderson sends 4 to this race suggests he reckons the favourite can be beaten and I favour NADIYA DE LA VEGA  @ 16/1 with AP McCoy in the saddle. A winner here LTO, this mare is on the upgrade. I also have a soft spot for HUNT BALL and, what’s more, he’ll love the soft ground. At 9/1 he looks great eachway value. Bet365 and Paddy Power are paying quarter-odds to 5 places on this race, don’t bet with anyone else!

Away from Cheltenham, at Wetherby in the 2:25 is a horse I’ve been waiting a long time for to return to the track, WYKE HILL. He looks to be on a very lenient rating of OR122 and if he’s fit he’ll take a lot to stop winning this race. As such, I’m on at 3/1.

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1 comment:

  1. What a day for the blog!
    I named 3 horses for the 1:55 at Cheltenham and they came 1st, 2nd & 4th - the winner being MONBEG DUDE @ 25/1 (advised at 40/1).
    Then, WYKE HILL brought home the bacon with a solid performance to win @ 3/1.
    Finally, Nadiya de la Vega came 3rd @ 16/1 to secure the place money.


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