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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 10 November 2012

It's Graduation Night

Today’s race meetings look a bit disappointing considering it is a Saturday.

The meeting at Sandown looks disappointing, although the handicap chase at 3:35 looks likely to provide a wager. The current fav is GRADUATION NIGHT who we know will definitely get the trip and appreciate the good-to-soft ground. The 2nd fav Time For Spring does not stay a yeard more than 2m6f, and how Imperial Circus can be 3rd fav on the back of a single chase run shows how limited the opposition is to GRADUATION NIGHT. You can get 4/1 about the fav and that looks generous. He looks a 9/4 chance in my book.

At Kelso, STAGECOACH PEARL goes for a repeat of last year’s win in the 2:40, and he could be worth a punt even if the odds are a bit on the short side at just 15/8.

Wincanton provides the best racing of the day and the feature race, the Badger Ales Trophy at 3:25. Before that tho’ we have some interesting racing especially the novice chase at 2:15. Last year, Paul Nicholls went through this card like a dose of salts and I reckon he’s hoping for a repeat this afternoon. He sends Poungach for the 2:15 and while this horse will come to the races prepared to do the biz, I was more than impressed with the winning debut performance of HOUBLON DES OBEAUX just 17-days ago. The Venetia Williams horse was up to giving this opposition a race as a hurdler and now proven as a chaser he looks better than an 8/1 chance in this. Novice chases are not the safest betting medium, so only small stakes here if you want to have an interest in the race.

 I will be surprised if ZARKANDAR is beaten in the Elite Hurdle at 2:50, even if Ruby Walsh rides stablemate Prospect Wells. The 4yo Balder Success does not look good enough, even when in-receipt of 16lb as he is today.

Onto the Badger at 3:25. I would not be confident of Michel Le Bon or Zarrafakt being good enough to win this, and The Package has only one chase win to his name from 12 attempts – he surely needs 3m4f+ these days. The ground will likely be too quick for Diamond Harry and West End Rocker, so I can see this race going to a long odds outsider. Several are likely candidates, Mic’s Delight loves going right-handed and Triangular ran no sort of race LTO, but the one I like is NO LOOSE CHANGE. Ok, Paul Nicholls sends Michel Le Bon and Ruby Walsh rides, but he clearly thinks there’s a place for a 2nd-string in what could be a weak race. The way he won at Newbury last March showed the horse has some class and, at 20/1, he’s more than worthy of a wager – eachway of course.

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