There was just the one selection yesterday, WIESENTRAUM in the 2:10 at Leicester. Advised as an eachway selection at 7/1, by the "off" his odds had drifted to 10/1, which was a bonus (always place your wagers with a bookie whose terms are "best odds guaranteed" or BOG, in respect of internet wagers). As I expected, the race-fav Lovcen did not enjoy the experience of chasing at all (I did write that he did not look a natural chaser) and he flopped badly having to be ridden-along before 4-out after which he became tailed-off. He was trading at odds-on for the early part of the race too, and you could have laid-him at odds on 1.90 - 1.95 on Betfair in-running. My selection WIESENTRAUM was trading at 14.0 on Betfair before the off (huge odds in my opinion) and went out to 20 - 22 in the early part of the race before coming-in to under 4.00 once the race-fav dropped out with 4 fences to go. So there was plenty of opportunity to profit on the advice I gave for this race, either by following my recommended wager, laying the race-fav, or playing a "back-to-lay" strategy on WIESENTRAUM. My recommended wager of ½pt eachway provided a ¾pt profit at the SP of 10/1 (ie a £10 ew wager would have paid-out £35, or a £15 profit).
Not much feedback on my suggestion yesterday of providing a "only pay if you win" service, but none was unsupportive (which is a positive). I would, of course, take into account the "donation" required in calculating profit margins. However, there has to be a minimum level of stake if, as a punter, you are paying for advice and (at £5 per donation) I'd say the bare minimum wager should be £10 win or £5 eachway. By way of comparison, my wagers are to £40 per point.
Whatever direction the blog selections go in, I will be continuing to write the blog, mainly because I enjoy doing it. I was discussing the World Hurdle yesterday with another respected judge and we both thought that, without Big Bucks, the race is potentially wide open. In today's Weekender, Paul Kealy (the paper's flagship tipster) takes a look at the race and comes to somewhat the same conclusion and opts for an eachway wager on REVE DE SIVOLA @ 10/1. Now, I like this horse and he's been on my personal alert list since the autumn of 2009. I even think he's not a bad chaser, he did (after all) come 3rd in the Festival Handicap Chase off OR140 in 2011 and that's not bad. I expected him to go chasing again after his seasonal debut at the Hennessey meeting when 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury, as his handicap rating of OR138 in that sphere looks incredibly lenient. What worries me about the horse is that his trainer (Nick Williams) has gone on-record as saying his participation in the World Hurdle is "ground dependent", in other words he will require soft/heavy going. Paul Kealy rightly says in his column today that the horse does not appear ground dependent (ie. needing soft/heavy) as all his best performances have been on "good" ground. As such, I'll be waiting until the 48-hour declarations on the race before having a wager on REVE DE SIVOLA. I'm thinking of having a small eachway wager on a couple of very long-shots for the World Hurdle as I can't see (and I agree with Paul Kealy on this) many of the current market leaders making an impact in the race come March. One that I really like is CAPE TRIBULATION @ 20/1 who won the Pertemps Hurdle Final over 3-mile last March and is in the form of his life having just romped home in the Rowland Meyrick Chase on Boxing Day. Another is CRACK AWAY JACK @ 50/1 who could easily run into a place (unlikely to win as 3-mile is beyond him) in what could turn out to be a very weak Grade 1 hurdle.
No selections today.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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