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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 27 January 2013

Cheltenham Festival thoughts

Yesterdays Selections were:
Cheltenham 1:15, KATENKO, 1pt win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power, BOG)
Cheltenham 1:50, SOMERSBY, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365, quarter-odds 1,2,3 BOG)
Cheltenham 2:25, CAPE TRIBULATION, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes – 5th odds 1,2,3)
Cheltenham 3:35, KAUTO STONE, 1pt win @ 15/2 (Stan James, BOG)

Total = 4pts stake

KATENKO romped home a very convincing winner with a performance that, it my opinion, puts him in the Gold Cup picture. Look again at my blog yesterday, and I also said Fruity O'Rooney (2nd) would be placed and that Nadiya De La Vega (3rd) would be involved in the finish. The Tricast paid £374 - this blog I write is gold-dust!

In the next race, Somersby ran a very brave effort to be 3rd, only losing out on the runners-up spot on the run-in from the final fence. He badly needed this race by the looks of it, and I would expect a much better run NTO. Had I known that there were to be a couple of non-runners in the morning then I would not have advised an eachway wager on Somersby, but that is the risk with writing a blog and posting it up on a Saturday morning. 

Order was restored in the big handicap chase of the day when CAPE TRIBULATION stayed-on best of all to capture the Argento Chase. Readers will know that I pointed Cape Tribulation out in my blog on Friday when he was 14/1. I had my money on at those odds but, with no Tidal Bay, he was still great value at 9/1 on Saturday morning with doubtful stayers and outclassed opposition in Grands Crus, Weird Al, and Hunt Ball.  Can we finally put the Grands Crus enigma back in its box now? The horse does not stay 3-mile as a chaser. 

You can't win them all, and Kauto Stone ran well enough for a long way to merit an interest in the Cleeve Hurdle. All-in-all, a great day for the blog - yet another very profitable Saturday - and 8.40pts profit posted. I wager to £40 a point and I ended the day up £336.

My question is, would you have paid £5 for this advice yesterday morning? I think my advice is worth paying for but, do you?

What did we learn yesterday at Cheltenham? I've already said KATENKO is now firmly in the Gold Cup picture, which is what I said after he won at Sandown on 5th January. The horse jumps like a stag and, as Our Mick found out, he's as strong as an ox. Currently 33/1 for the Gold Cup, this horse is worth a tickle at eachway.

SPRINTER SACRE won yesterday without even breaking sweat. I rated it at 154 (via Mad Moose at 140) and we know he can run to 20lb better than that. Honestly, unless he falls (or does not turn up) he can't lose the QM Champion Chase and if I had £5,000 I'd make a quick £2,000 by taking the odds of 2/5 on offer for that race. He should be 1/8, maybe even 1/10.

I'm not sure how to rate CAPE TRIBULATION, but I think courageous Imperial Commander has now had his day. He won't improve for this run and, if he were mine, I'd miss Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead, 

Finally, I don't think we saw the winner of the World Hurdle in the Cleeve yesterday. Oscar Whisky merely matched his World Hurdle run of last year with 160 in my book - and that puts Reve De Sivola on a similar mark, and that's just not good enough as they were all-out. I think I have the winner of this race and I'll be advising those who purchase my Festival Bulletin next month.

So then, yet another profitable Saturday for readers of the blog following a fair few other profitable Saturdays this jump season. Make this blog the first you read every Saturday - you know it makes sense!

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