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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 3 January 2013

Antepost Angst

We have a short period of quiet on the horseracing jumps scene before the Welsh National this Saturday. It is well worth taking advantage of such periods to take a look at the antepost markets for the Cheltenham Festival. Antepost betting is not "in-vogue" at the moment, but I cannot understand why after last year's Festival brought news of an outstanding piece of antepost betting from the stablelad at Nicky Henderson's yard. Conor Murphy won a million after placing a £50 accumulator on 5 horses in November 2011 for the Cheltenham Festival the following March. The punter would have won more but his winnings were restricted by the bookie he used to just £1 million.

The races that featured in the wager were:
The Arkle: the novice chase championship race over 2-miles.
The Neptune Hurdle: the novice hurdle championship race over 2m5f.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase: the all-aged chase championship race over 2-miles.
The RSA Chase: the novice chase championship race over 3m1f.
The Ryanair chase. The all-aged chase championship race over 2m5f.

The common factor of these races is that they were all "championship" races, in which all the runners carry the same weight. To these, you can add:-
The Champion Hurdle, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and the World Hurdle

Personally, I would forget about the Neptune hurdle as the winner of this race usually does not emerge as a likely contender until March (altho' PONT ALEXANDRE looks an immense prospect, and is described by Willie Mullins "as nice a horse as I have ever seen"), and focus on the other Championship races. Remember, it is not imperative to find the winner. A successful antepost treble on Simonsig (Arkle) @ "evens", Dynaste (RSA chase) @ 5/2, and Sprinter Sacre (QMCC) @ 1/2 would only return £1,050 to a £100 stake; whereas a £50 eachway treble on Sanctuaire (QMCC) @ 14/1, Oscars Well (Arkle) @ 14/1, and Back In focus (RSA Chase) @ 16/1 would return £5,062.50 should all three be placed. I've not yet placed an antepost wager but I'll be going into the market before the Cheltenham "Trials" meeting on Saturday 26th January.

In the meantime, I'm looking at the Welsh National today and should be able to post up a selection tomorrow (Friday). I've made a "resolution" to reduce the number of wagers I make and increase the stakes to maintain the turnover and (hopefully) generate more profit by weeding out the selections that are not value. As such, you will see more narrative blogs rather than tipping blogs in the coming weeks. It's good to change the way you do things from time-to-time as it keeps the brain fresh

Good luck & thanks for reading this blog to all visitors, I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it.  If you've had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!  Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

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