There are a couple of meetings today at Chepstow and Leicester. Not a lot of interest, but there is one horse from my personal alert list running today and I think it looks value at it's current odds and it should stay that way until the off unless there is a non-runner. There is a short-priced market leader for the race but I think that my alert list runner should be trading at under 3/1 for this race, maybe ever at 5/2. He's trading a lot longer than that as I write but, unless the fav is a non-runner, you should be able to obtain longer than 5/1 before the off.
I was going to try an experiment and ask for donations of £5 and then I'd send an email by return with the name of the horse selected, race venue and time, and the recommended wager. However, as I'm operating away from home today I thought that may be a tad difficult to implement if I receive more requests for the selection than I'm expecting. Not only that, but I need to explore the time difference between a donation being made via the blog and the email confirmation being sent to me via Paypal. The intention is that if the suggested wager makes a profit, then I keep the donation; but, if the wager is a loser then I would refund the donation.
Just thinking out-loud now, this scenario would probably best work on a Saturday when I am able to be available at my computer for the whole of the morning - so I won't be doing this today. Before I go any further, the selection I was going to advise is:-
Leicester 2:10, WIESENTRAUM, currently 7/1. Yes, the race-fav Lovcen was a much better hurdler, but he didn't strike me as a natural chaser at Kempton last month and at "evens" he looks no value at all. Minella Class has shown himself to be nothing special tho', coming from Henderson's stable, he will be fit to do his best. Same Difference does not look as good as WIESENTRAUM as a chaser and does not look like he stays this sort of trip either. WIESENTRAUM was not expected to win his chase debut LTO, but he did and over a trip much shorter than he'd prefer (2m3f) and he beat that day a decent looking novice chaser in Vintage Star. Today's 3-mile will suit him well. If he doesn't win then he should be 2nd as I cannot see more than 2 of these finishing in front of him. I'm on to a ½pt eachway.
Anyway, I'd be interested in some feedback as to whether readers of the blog would be willing to donate a small amount, ie £5, on a no profit / no payment basis. The way I see it, there has to be some "return" from the blog to make writing it worthwhile. Looking ahead, I'm starting to write my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin this coming weekend and that will be for sale only - no freebies!
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
No comments:
Post a Comment