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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 7 January 2013

Cheltenham Festival pointers

What a result on Saturday!

MONBEG DUDE hit the spot as the blog selection swooping on the run-up to the final fence of this 3m5f & 110 yards marathon to collar the leader, race-fav Tea For Three, and then holding-on to the line to win at an SP of 10/1. Remember, I tipped this horse on the Thursday before the race at 14/1, and reiterated my support for him again on Saturday morning when he was 12/1. I actually managed to obtain 14/1 at about 10:20am on Saturday morning (about 20-mins after posting-up the blog) courtesy of BetVictor. This was a cracking renewal and Tea For Three ran a gallant race, but he was never going to be able to give 16lb to an improving chaser like MONBEG DUDE. What I like about the winner is he hasn't learnt how to jump properly yet and he made 4 errors over the last 6 fences - any of which would have cost lesser horses their chance in the race. What saved MONBEG DUDE is that he has a colossal engine in him. Watch a replay and how he slices thru' the field when starting to make his move on the back stretch about a mile out. He went off screen when jumping the 6th-last fence and must've made a huge error there as he lost about 4-lengths (his in-running odds moved from <7.00 to 40.0+). I thought before Saturdays race that MONBEG DUDE would be OR145+ by April, but - when this horse learns to jump a fence properly - I think that's more likely to be OR155+. Don't forget TEA FOR THREE, he has Grand National winner written all over him. And what about Triggerman in 3rd? This horse won a "bumper" as a 6yo, and didn't have his hurdle debut until he was a 7yo; he may be an 11yo but there could be a big handicap in him yet.

The were some great performances on Saturday and they have to be noted with the Cheltenham Festival now within sight. At Sandown, altho' I did not advise a wager I gave my support to PENDRA in the Tolworth Hurdle and this very promising horse ran a cracker of a race over a trip half-a-mile too short. This could be a speculative eachway punt (he's 33/1) for the Neptune Hurdle but, next season, he'll make a tremendous novice chaser over 3-mile.

At Chepstow, novice hurdler SWNYMOR fell at the final flight with the race at his mercy and odds of 20/1 for the Triumph Hurdle look tempting. Be careful with antepost wagers on the Cheltenham Festival as if the horse does not run you will lose your stake money. We are probably 6-weeks away from the first bookie offering "non-runner, no bet" (NRNB).

At Sandown, I was hugely impressed with the 3-mile chase winner KATENKO, a 7yo having just his 3rd run - and only 2nd chase race - for Venetia Williams. This horse jumped like a stag and was in total command a long way out in a very competitive race. The runner-up JOHN'S SPIRIT has lots of promise and this was his first attempt at a trip beyond 2m5f so he was tenderly ridden given his stamina was untried. My eachway selection Fruity O'Rooney ran his usual game race to be 3rd and he's a good yardstick, as is the 4th horse home Tartak. Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm and race-fav Alfie Spinner were not far behind them, but KATENKO won this in a canter. I see it that Venetia Williams has 2 races to aim for with this horse at the Festival: the Festival Handicap Chase on Day 1 for which he's currently 14/1 with Hills (only bookie offering odds), or the Gold Cup itself as he's capable of running to a place in the big race. Honest, I think this horse looks 160+.

The other great performance at Sandown was from WILLIAM'S WISHES in the 2-mile handicap chase. This horse is now unbeaten in all his 5 chases to-date (all at 2-mile), and we know he stays 2m4f as a hurdler so the QMCC and a meeting with Sprinter Sacre has to be on the cards. My own personal opinion is that Sprinter Sacre is not a 1/2 chance (some books have him at 2/5).. If Flemenstar were to run, then I think we'd see Sprinter Sacre trade at 11/10 - 11/8 but, I don't think Flemenstar will travel over from Ireland. That leaves the runner-up spot open at least, tho' I reckon if Sizing Europe, Williams Wishes and (possibly) Sanctuaire are upsides Sprinter Sacre at the 2nd-last fence then we could see what the fav really is made of.

Lastly, I think I give good value with this blog.

I post it online well before any of my selections are due to run and I tell readers how much to place, the bet type and which bookie to go to. I send out a "tweet" via twitter as soon as I post the blog so that you don't have to sit by your computer.  You don't need to register or use any passwords to read my blog, and there is no charge for the information. I am not a prolific tipster: I do not post 8 to 10 selections a day hoping 1 or 2 will win and then declare that I've made you a profit of perhaps 2pts on an outlay of 12 to 15 points or more. I don't just provide a list of horse names and race-times, I give a narrative of why I think a horse will win and why I think it is value at the odds available. I understand that the majority of punters out there, like those who filled the stands at Plumpton yesterday when I attended, want to have a "bet" a couple of times a week on a couple of horses on which they can lay-out £20 to £50 with a reasonable likelihood of getting a return.

Had readers of my Saturday blog had £10 eachway on Monbeg Dude and Fruity O'Rooney, plus another £5 eachway on Our Island which were the wagers recommended then, for a total stake of £50, you would have enjoyed a profit of £145.

All I ask is that if you enjoy a profit on the back of what you read on this blog, then share the wealth and make a donation. I had a great response on twitter after Monbeg Dude won and, when I checked the stats, there had been 345 visits to the blog prior to the race. Many thanks to those who did have the good grace and integrity to make a donation.

If you are wanting to get the latest Cheltenham Festival betting odds then make sure you head over to Betfair today!

Remember!  Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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