Finally, an 8/1 winner!

It took a little longer than expected, but we finally hit the back of the net with an 8/1 winner in COOLOGUE yesterday. It was the only selection for the blog, and it was a very welcome winner. The race went even better than I expected as several of the fancied rivals either fell (Cogry & Racing Pulse) or pulled-up (Henryville & Full Shift) early in the race. Even so, our selection was pushed all the way to the line by the 6yo Keltus who we knew was race-fit, but we also knew we had our money on the better horse. What I learned from the race-report afterwards was that Coologue had the benefit of a breathing operation during the summer and now looks almost certain to end up a 150+ rated chaser.

It is onwards and upwards now, and today we have a Sunday meeting at Aintree with the feature being the "Monets Garden" handicap chase over 2m4f. The fav as I write is the 6yo Three Musketeers @ 3/1. This horse certainly has potential to improve but, in my opinion, he will need to to beat some of these rivals. He was last seen at Cheltenham coming 4th to Black Hercules over 2m4f and I reckon the handicapper has him about right at OR152.  God's Own is next in the market, and this C&D winner - and a Grade 1 winner at that - sets a high standard. This trip suits him better than the bare 2-mile, but I believe his OR166 rating is a bit rich. I cannot understand how Vibrato Valtat is rated OR160 after a season of poor efforts, so I cannot see him winning unless he's the only finisher. We all know Sire De Grugy does not stay a yard beyond 2-mile, and Smad Place is surely using this race as a prep for another bid at the Hennessey Gold Cup in a months time. Third Intention is interesting as - if he repeats the form of his seasonal debut of November 2015 when he met Vibrato Valtat, God's Own and Sire De Grugy in  the Haldon Chase at Exeter - he will beat them all as he races off at least 10lb better terms (and 16lb better-off with God's Own). And then there is Royal Regatta, and old fav of the blog from last season, if he can run to the level of his Ascot win in Dec15 he will massacre this field.  The ground will be the key in my opinion, Royal Regatta will be better on good-to-soft, while "good" ground suits THIRD INTENTION.  The 7/1 about this horse, with the others having so many issues, looks too good to ignore. Let's hope he's fit.

Last year I looked at the veterans chase and virtually pointed to the winner without naming it. As with most veterans chases, they are dominated by 10yo's as these horses still retain most of their ability. The current fav is Double Ross but, if you are a long term reader of the blog, you know I do not think this horse is a true 3-mile chaser. He scraped home LTO and, over an extra 330 yards, he looks vulnerable. His best performance last season was when 4th in the 2m4f Paddy Power handicap and I just cannot see him winning. Some horses have stamina doubts such as Eastlake (trying 3-mile for the 1st time) Bearly Legal and Dineur. Some are just slow, like Masters Hill and Baileys Concerto. If you take out those older than 10yo, then you are left with FORGOTTEN GOLD. He won a veterans chase at Ascot last April over 3-mile, and only found one better NTO at Cheltenham over 3m2f off a 7lb higher rating of OR139. He goes well fresh, stays the trip well, handles good ground and, with 2 wins from 5 starts last season, was as good as ever when last seen. I would have him the 5/2 fav, and as he's 7/2 with most bookies he looks a fair wager.

There is a trappy 3m2f handicap chase at Wincanton at 3:30pm with only 4 runners. I do not like these small field races as they can become too tactical. However, the morning fav I'm In Charge may stay the trip but he's not (in my book) an OR120 chaser. When the handicapper put him up 15lb after winning last May (his 13th chase race) it was seriously over the top in my opinion. The mare Miss Serious will also stay this trip well enough, and split a couple of NTO winners when 2nd on 16th September at Newton Abbot. However despite falling earlier this week when racing at Exeter, providing she hasn't lost any confidence she will go close. With Gentleman Jon not looking like he can stay this sort of trip, we move to Cernunos who is on my alert list. When you look at the form of his races last season at Kempton in Feb/March over 2m4f you have to consider him a lot better than OR132. However, since coming 2nd on 19Mar16, he's only run in snatches.  Will he stay this 3m2f trip? That's debateable, as the sire is virtually unknown in the UK, and his dam has only produced one other foal, that raced on the flat as did Cernunos. It's too big an ask, even if he is the best horse in the race, and odds of 3/1 are not good enough. Miss Serious seems the most obvious one to go for here.

Selection
Aintree 3:50pm THIRD INTENTION, £10 win @ 7/1 (Betfred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes)