How time flies! Winter jumps-scene ahoy!

This is the 332nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

It's been a week since my last blog posting and altho' I don't like having breaks between posts this long, there is not much I can do about it. Unlike some of the tipsters who blog or are on Twitter, I am not a full-time tipster and actually have a day-job. Recently, I've moved to a new office where internet access is restricted and independent via my "USB stick" is virtually useless. As such, I have been reduced to buying a daily Racing Post again (after a break of about 18 months) and it just isn't the same as reading the form from their website.

So, for the time-being, the blog will be published at least once a week, probably twice and (if I get enough time) 3 times a week – that is Wednesdays (after publication of the Weekender), Saturdays (morning), and possibly Sunday or Monday. 

I am continuing to post selections on Betting League and, in actual fact, not having to write a daily blog gives me a bit more time to study the form. If you are following my selections on Betting League then I strongly suggest that you also follow me via Twitter (@wayward_lad) . The reason being is during the autumn going changes brought about by inclement weather can result in late non-runners. As such, an opportunity not available in the morning could quickly come to light during the course of the day. When I post a selection on Betting League, I will immediately make an announcement on Twitter via @wayward_lad. Altho' I may leave making a selection until as late as possible, I will always publish my selections no later than 2 hours before the race "off" time; ie for a race at 4:30pm I will publish my selection on Betting League no later than 2:30pm. That should give followers plenty of time to get on.

A couple of recent examples of late withdrawals resulting in decent opportunities have been:

30^th Aug at Epsom in the 4:20pm – the withdrawal of the morning fav Ellie In The Pink left the way open for KONSTANTIN who was subsequently gambled-on from 3/1 in to 2/1, and I reckon he would've been value at 5/4 given lack of strength of the opposition.

26^th Aug at Ffos Las in the 3:40pm – the (late) withdrawal of fav Zero Money left COLONEL MAK with a very easy opportunity, and an SP of 3/1 was an absolute gift.   

Last Friday, my selection of OGEE was not good. The meeting at Ffos Las at the end of August has quickly become one of my favourites – and I really like the course. This time last year I tipped Templer and he struggled when put under pressure. His subsequent form suggested his OR127 rating was a bit stiff and so, when he came into this year's race on the same rating, I thought he wasn't up to it. Clearly, this years race was not of the same strength as last year, and Templer will struggle now I reckon. As for OGEE, every time he ran last season he looked to be in need of the race. On Friday, he looked to be in need of race-practise! The horse has talent, is on a very lenient rating now, but there is clearly something wrong and in need of changing with regards his training regime.

Yesterday, I tipped FASTNET ROCK in the 4:10 at Ripon. I remember going to Ripon many years ago in the mid-1990's with my brother and we had one of the best portions of fish'n'chips I've ever had on the course. I wonder if it's the same now? It was a speculative selection as I reckoned the going/trip would find out more than a few of the opposition and FASTNET ROCK would at least be able to hold-on to a place. I thought the wide draw would be tricky and that it would bring about a slight change of tactics with jockey Lee Newman opting to drop-in behind the leaders and launch a sustained run from 3f-out. However, Newman stuck to the script and tried to lead from the break, and the effort of grabbing the lead from the wide stall took too much out of the horse. 

Looking ahead, Friday at Haydock could be the next wagering opportunity. If nothing is doing then, Saturday is a very attractive days racing. I will be heading-off to Ascot so selections will be posted on Betting League before 10:00am on Saturday morning.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Some decent jump racing this weekend

This is the 331st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections on Wednesday but we could have a selection on Thursday and almost certainly will do on Friday if events pan-out well.

There is a decent “jumps” meeting at Ffos Las on Thursday & Friday as the jumpers start to warm-up for the new season ‘proper’. Like most humans I am a creature of habit and, this time last year, I had a couple of wagers at the Ffos Las meeting and then another at the Cartmel meeting on Saturday. What I like to see is that the same trainers who were involved in those races last year are involved this year too – and with some of the same horses.

I am particularly drawn to the class 2, 3m 1½f chase at Ffos Las on Friday at 4:50pm, and the 3-mile handicap hurdle (class 3) that follows it at 5:25pm. There are also a couple of interesting races at Hamilton on Friday evening, including the Lanark Silver Bell; a class 3 handicap over 12f worth £20,000. This is likely to be very competitive and we could be able to find some value in this race. The afternoon meeting at Newmarket on Friday holds the class 3 Piper-Heidsieck “Rare” Handicap over 1m 6f & 175 yards. This race has been an excellent pointer to the Cesarewitch (run on October 8th this year) and as I write 14 of the entries are also entered for the Cesarewitch. One that catches my eye is John Gosden’s improving 3yo, Manifestation.

The racing on Saturday looks fairly uninspiring and, looking at the races and entries, the best opportunity for a wager could well be at the Windsor meeting. That said, I will also be paying attention to the racing at Cartmel over the jumps.

I was hoping to be able to announce that I had re-joined the horseracing owner’s fraternity this week, having purchased a share in the syndicate run by Bechers Brook (Robert Gibbs) – see adjacent link to his blog – in the horse KING OF CASTILE. However, Robert decided he wasn’t for us and so the horse was quickly sent back to the sales where he was bought by trainer Jim Best. He happens to train at stables near to me at the old Lewes Racecourse in East Sussex. As such, I will be keeping an eye on him over the next couple of months as I am expecting the horse to be subject to a gamble as some stage this winter. In fact, there are a fair few decent East Sussex trainers over the jumps, and I am inspired to make my local trainers a feature of my winter horseracing blog.

Readers may have noticed that I have started a duplicate blog using Wordpress (link is adjacent) and the intention is to transfer totally to Wordpress from 1st October. By this time I hope I will have learnt how to use that platform to best effect. In the meantime, if fellow bloggers want to include a link to the Wordpress page on your own blog, please do.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
I hope that readers of the blog get as much enjoyment from it as I get from writing it. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

George Baker, George Baker, George Baker!

This is the 330th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

One selection, one winner – GEORGE BAKER was my selection posted on Betting League today and he won at an SP of 5/2 (advised at 7/2). Always in command, he won a shade cosily at the end and I reckon his jockey – George Baker – will have felt the sharp edge of trainer George Baker’s tongue!

What is good is that it brought an end to my short losing streak and has put me back on track. As regular visitors will know, since 1st July I have been posting all of my selections on the Betting League website and not on the blog. The results since the 1st July are as follows:-

4th July, DRAGONERA, 2pts win @ 4/1; WON …8.00pts PROFIT
5th July, OFF CHANCE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
5th July, FLOWING CAPE , 1pt win @ 7/2; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
8th July, CHARLIE COOL, 2pts win @ 11/4; WON …5.50pts PROFIT
9th July, AWZAAN, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
14th July, JARROW, 1pts win @ 7/1; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
22nd July, DHAAMER, 1pt win @ 13/2; unplaced …1.00pts lost
26th July, STRONG SUIT, 1pts win @ 3/1; WON …3.00pts PROFIT
28th July, BOOGIE SHOES, 1pt EW @ 12/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
6th August, ZUIDER ZEE, 1pt win @ 13/2; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
13th August, DOCOFTHEBAY, 1pt EW @ 12/1; placed 3rd …0.80pts PROFIT
19th August, NATIONALISM, 1pt EW @ 7/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
20th August, HARLESTONE TIMES, 1pt EW @ 25/1; unplaced …2.00pts lost
23rd August, GEORGE BAKER, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT

Total = 20.30pts PROFIT

Not a bad set of results, even if I say so myself.

I always like to keep an eye on the world of the bloggers, and ‘Joe’ who writes the Steeplechasing blog (see adjacent link) has an excellent page written by renowned journalist David Ashworth. Do visit and have a read, it may save your life (or, extend it a bit).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Absolute Shambles does it again

This is the 329th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No luck today for my selection posted on Betting League, which was HARLESTONE TIMES in the Ebor handicap. I really thought this horse had a much better chance than the morning odds of 25/1 as John Dunlop has a great strike-rate at York and had aimed this horse at the race since he won at Goodwood back in May. Unfortunately, he never got a look in and trailed in 11th. I had a feeling in my bones this morning about John Dunlop as he sent out just 3 horses to the races today; 2 to York and the other one – Berling – went to Chester, where it won at odds of 11/2 (touched 7/1). You can’t back all the “single” runners that every trainer sends out to a track and, in fact, Dunlop hasn’t had a winner at Chester in over 5 seasons, but making a note of trainers with single runners at a track is always a good place to start when looking for winners.

Those who followed my jumps season Horses-to-Follow list last season will know I was enthusiastic about Absolute Shambles early-on, but that enthusiasm waned as he ran poorly struggling to find his form. He did win a chase off OR80 in March but was unable to follow up suggesting he was just unreliable. Well, LTO he was put over hurdles with 1st-time cheek-pieces off OR76 (which was 11lb below the last rating he ran from over hurdles) and he won at 25/1. Today, raised just 6lb for that win to OR82, he was confidently ridden by 5lb claimer Tom Cannon and won again at 8/1. I wrote in my Horses-to-Follow list that ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES looked to be on a very lenient rating of OR92 back in September 2010, as such with his new-found confidence he should be up to winning off that mark over hurdles and, as such, can defy another hike by the handicapper. Remember, he can handle good-to-soft, stays 3-mile-plus and runs from the front – he could turn out to be OR100+. His full-sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler, and his half-brother Longshanks was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch and won off OR130 as a chaser; so stick with him.

I have started a duplicate blog using Wordpress (link is adjacent) and the intention is to transfer totally to Wordpress from 1st October by which time I will have learnt how to use the platform to best effect. In the meantime, if fellow bloggers want to include a link to the Wordpress page on your own blog, please do.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Day 3 at York - "Gimcrack"

This is the 328th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s blog generated a lot of interest and a fair few supportive comments – thanks to those who responded via this blog and twitter. It’s always good to get feedback especially from other horseracing bloggers and aficionados.

It’s a late blog today as there is only one race that captured my interest (the 3:05 at York) and my selection for that race has been posted on Betting League. You have to sign up to view my selections now and it costs you a few quid a month but I think its worth it. I won’t flood your email box with half-a-dozen selections a day, chipping away at your hard-earned betting bank. If I have a selection, then I will have seriously considered not only its chance but also the odds available and whether it is worthwhile. Sometimes, I over cautious and if you refer to my blog page on Wednesday you will see that I talked myself out of a winning wager on TWICE OVER for the flimsiest of reasons – despite nominating him as by far the best value in the race.

I also left posting this blog late to leave the previous post on the page-front as I’m not sure how many visitors scroll-down and read blogs they’ve missed – and it did generate a fair amount of interest.

When I was younger (that is, under 11yo) the “Gimcrack” used to really capture my imagination – in fact, it was one of the highlights of the flat racing season for me. Old hands will no doubt recall owner David M. Robinson won it several times in the late 1960’s with horses trained by Paul Davey. I think I am right in saying that it is a picture by Stubbs of the horse Gimcrack that sold recently at one of the highest prices paid for a painting at auction - £22.40 million on 5th July this year. It was purchased by the seller for just £12,600 in 1951. It’s come a long way down the pecking order since Mill Reef won the race in 1970 – and then went on to win the Derby and “Arc” as a 3yo before starring on the BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year show.

I cannot see anything from this year’s race repeating those feats, and so for glorious deeds we need to look to the Nunthorpe at 3:40. This race is a cracker with a heritage to match, and this year’s event fits the bill exactly. This is a race that I will watch, as I’m never quite sure with sprinters. However, HOOF IT looks a seriously good candidate following his Stewards Cup win. It would have been interesting if the 2yo Best Terms had run in this rather than the Lowther Stakes (Group 2) which she won convincingly yesterday.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Day 2 at York's Ebor meeting

This is the 327th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day for followers of the blog yesterday.
I rated TWICE OVER a 9/4 chance in the Juddmonte International being by far the best value in the race at the (then) odds of 5/1. Well, he started at longer odds than that, 11/2 and was 6/1 in places, and won in convincing style. I didn’t put him up as a “solid” selection as I thought jockey Tom Queally had passed him over, but I learnt from twitter at about 1:30pm that in fact it was Sir Henry Cecil who selected the jockeys for the horses. That put a different light on the matter, and that’s what I tweeted reiterating that TWICE OVER should not be ignored and that (at the odds) TWICE OVER was the value punt.

The Great Voltigeur was always about whether Sea Moon was a talking horse or one that did his business on the track. He finally showed what he was capable of with an emphatic win and, in doing so, leapt to the head of the St Leger market. This season’s 3yo colts are developing into a decent bunch and as it’s likely several will be staying in training as 4yo’s then 2012 could be a good year for the sport.

This time last year I was deep into selecting and writing about my Horse’s to Follow for the coming 2010-11 ‘jumps’ season. While it provided me (and, I hope, you readers out there) with some entertainment, it did not provide me with an overwhelming amount of profit. I made a couple of schoolboy errors with the list (not surprising, given it was the 1st time I’d attempted the task) primarily they were:-
- Selecting a couple of horses that had progressed into another class bracket against which they could not compete; and
- Selecting a couple of horses that did not run throughout the entire period under review.

It was the first point above that made me take a closer look at the Nick Mordin column in yesterday’s Weekender. He writes that the average punter overlooks performances in lower class racing (ie, classes 4, 5 & 6) that are above average and, therefore, that creates value when they step-up on class to race. Now, I like Nick Mordin and I like the way he invites the reader to analyse and re-assess the way they look at racing. I’ve been looking at race-class for many years and it all started when I moved to live and work in Hong Kong in 1990 (I lived there from March 1990 till July 1997).

There were no English formbooks out there then, and the raceform in the local English newspaper (South China Morning Post) focused mainly on reporting facts (ie, race-time, position at finish, position at “quarters” in the race, etc) and had no ratings system. Using a basic spreadsheet computer programme, I set up a time-based ratings system with which I analysed and assessed the results to produce ratings. It started off fairly basic with me having to determine a “standard time” for each distance of HK’s two courses, from which I rated each performance. This race rating was adjusted by a ‘going’ allowance, but even that did not produce the results that I was hoping for. Why? Because lower class races often produced performances that seemed to merit a high rating but, when upped in class, the horses were not able to follow-thru’ and repeat the form. I had to delve into my betting experience and took on lessons learned when I was a regular at the Hove greyhound track between 1986-88 (I lived in Hove, less than half-a-mile from the track, between 1985-88) during which time I went dog racing at least twice a week.
You would think that if a greyhound can win a race in grade 7 at a time that would win a grade 5 then it should be capable of winning a grade 6 race – well, it can’t. This is not a universal law, there will be exceptions - but those exceptions prove the rule. Why is this? I put it down to the quality of the opposition (in the grade 7 race the dog is clearly the fastest in the race but, in the grade 6, its not) and also how the race is run. As you go up in grade, the dogs are not just faster, they break quicker, they are more track-wise and they have more stamina.
In my opinion, it’s the same with racehorses. The higher the class of race, the “better” the quality of horse in terms of pace, attitude, resolution, determination, stamina etc. So much so, that in order to make my ratings work in Hong Kong, I had to add 10lbs to each class of race up the scale. That is, if a horse won a race in Class 3 with the same weight and in the same time as a horse in Class 2 on the same day over the same trip, the horse that won the class 2 race was rated 10lbs better than the class 3 winner by me in my ratings.
I know it does not make sense, and “time” pundits will be falling over themselves to ridicule me – but it worked then in Hong Kong, and I reckon it works now here in the UK; tho’ I don’t use a 10lb “class factor” here!

If I’m putting-up a selection today you’ll find out via Betting League.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Day 1 at York's Ebor meeting

This is the 326th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections were posted-up by me on Betting League yesterday (Tuesday) and there are none again today on what looks a fairly ordinary opening day to the York Ebor meeting.

I was going to put up TWICE OVER for the Juddmonte International at 3:40pm today for a number of reasons – but the fact that jockey Tom Queally has passed him over for Midday has had too big an effect on me. That said, I reckon TWICE OVER will appreciate today's going better than Midday and the trip is perfect too. There is a possibility that the pace may not be strong enough but once he gets going he will take a lot of beating and 5/1 (Vic Chandler) represents value in my mind in what should be a tactical affair. No matter how much I look at the form, I cannot see the AP O'Brien runner Await The Dawn as an odds-on chance.

My odds-line (100% book) has them at :-
Await The Dawn @ 7/4
Midday @ 9/4
Twice Over @ 9/4
And the other 2 runners at 100/1

The Great Voltigeur at 3:05pm should go to Seville, who on known form is head & shoulders better than these and, as such, is much more worthy of being 'odds-on' than his stable companion Await The Dawn. If you consider his odds of 6/4 are more to do with the unknown potential of 2nd-fav Sea Moon – who really has to find a fair bit of improvement on what he's shown to-date to win this – then I would expect the big players to descend on this price and for it to shorten considerably today. As for Sea Moon, he looks a "place-lay" as he is by no means certain to be able to compete at this level. Take him out of the race and the next-best is Namibian who was never likely to be considered for this race, even after his Royal Ascot win, until the likes of Nathaniel and Masked Marvel sought alternative targets. He looks the most likely to follow Seville home today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you've read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Is horse welfare really on the agenda for "jump" racing?

This is the 325th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I’ve been occupied these past couple of weeks entertaining my 8yo son (whom I hardly see as he lives with his mum in far-west Cornwall, over 300 miles from me). Hence, my blog has been a bit quiet. Please accept my apologies.

There have been some developments in horseracing recently – developments that cannot be overlooked.

Last week we had the announcement of a 4-year ban on established “front-rank” jumps trainer Howard Johnson. He was found guilty of actions that were detrimental to a racehorse’s welfare, whilst in his care. Personally, I found the 4-year ban out of kilter with other recent disciplinary measures – such as the much shorter ban for doping handed-out last year to Nicky Henderson. I understand that there are measures of responsibility involved but, in my opinion, “bans” must be realistic and consistent if “horseracing” is to provide an acceptable face to the general public as well as its own community. A 4-year ban in any sport is pretty conclusive – and so it proved to Howard Johnson, as he immediately announced his retirement. I was saddened by this as it must be remembered that Johnson (thru’ his stable) brought “champion” hurdler Inglis Drever back from a career-threatening injury to win not one, but two further World Hurdle races at the Cheltenham Festival. Yes, he made an error of judgment but, given his career history, are horses in his care fundamentally at risk? And is that risk enough to warrant his removal from the sport entirely? We’ve all seen the “riots” on tv last week, but are all those apprehended to be tarred with the same brush irrespective of the level of their individual crime? If you say yes to that, then we as a nation should apply the same level of blame in all areas – in other words, if you are guilty then there are no half-measures of punishment. However, I think that our strength as a nation is that we are compassionate, and the level of punishment levied at Howard Johnson was – in my opinion - over-the-top.

This week (yesterday, in fact) we’ve had the announcement of further modifications to the Aintree Grand National course, made in the effort to make the course “safer”. Some fences have been reduced in height and, at some fences – including Bechers Brook – the level of the “landing” side of the fence has been raised. After this year’s race was marred by the deaths of two horses, there was much media attention on whether it was worth it. At the time, and it has been repeated in media reports today, it was reported that more than half the number of fallers in the race occurred in the 1st-6 fences, ie up to and including Bechers Brook on the 1st circuit of the National. Jockeys and Trainers, as well as those experienced in “Jump” racing all sang from the same hymn sheet in blaming the speed the horses ran at over those 1st-6 fences as being the primary contributory factor of the fallers. With fallers comes the potential of injury and, in the case of broken bones, the death of the horse.

In my opinion, reducing the height of some fences and making then more inviting to jump by increasing the height of the “kick-board” in front of the fence will just mean the horses will run faster over the 1st-6 fences. As such, raising the level of the landing side will have no effect in reducing the number of fallers that fall due to the speed they are travelling at and, as the horses will be travelling quicker, the potential for injury will be increased.

There is always a risk involved with racing. It seems some people have already forgotten the scenes at Ascot a few weeks ago when Rewilding broke a leg when running at full speed in front of the stands. That was a “Flat” race by-the-way, and one of the most prestigious flat races of the season in Europe.

The hidden agenda for the Grand National is its future demise and removal from the racing calendar. In chipping away at its reason for being, support for the race within the industry will wither as it ceases to be the historic spectacular of past years. There is already apathy towards the event from some bookmakers, and the BBC only televise it because they feel obliged to. If racing wants to preserve the race and guarantee its future then it needs to think outside the box.

The pace of the race over the initial mile must be reduced. That could be done by:-
(a) fixing it’s date in the calendar. If it is always run on the last Saturday in March, that should provide softer (and slower) going. [The Gold Cup at Cheltenham could be run 15 days earlier – again, fixed in the calendar.] Another possibility is:-
(b) to move the starting position to a point alongside the Melling Road on the ‘back-straight’ of the Mildmay course. That way, the distance of race could be maintained but, rather than a sprint in a straight-line to the 1st-fence, the runners would have to negotiate a sharp left-turn after a furlong which should slow them enough to approach the 1st-fence at a more moderate gallop.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The search for the elusive "value"

This is the 324th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

My search for that elusive jewel, "value", took me to Haydock yesterday where racegoers had an 8-race card. As I wrote here, in the final race on the card I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looked to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, I didn't as (by the time I wrote my blog page) the 11/2 on offer in the morning had gone and at the 7/2 on offer then I did not consider him a "value" wager. Of course, he went on to win in convincing style at 100/30, thereby showing me up. Horses love making fools of you.

My selection of the day - posted on Betting League - was ZUIDER ZEE. Now, I really do think this horse is well-handicapped but he suffers from being one-paced. He flatters to deceive in his racing, staying-on very well but always finding 1 or 2 too good for him, but giving the impression there is more in the locker. I "tweeted" afterwards that he'd had my last penny (as a flat horse) on him now and that he'd probably do better sent hurdling - and that comment was reflected in the RP race analysis!

I did have another wager in the evening at Ayr when, after a couple of non-runners, MUSIC FESTIVAL looked to have an outstanding chance in the 6:40. He was sent-off at 11/4 (tho' I was on at 3/1+ on Betfair) and never looked like winning as he trailed the eventual winner Benny The Bear all-the-way. Despite not getting within 3-lengths of the winner, and his jockey resorting to the whip 2-furlongs out, he actually traded at 1.17 in-running on Betfair! How the hell that happened is beyond me.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Shergar Cup Day at Ascot

This is the 323rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There have been no recent posts as the horseracing in the UK has been pretty poor this week. Today being a Saturday tho', it is a bit better.

Firstly, I have posted a selection on Betting League (see adjacent link) for those who are interested.

Of todays racing, at Ascot the Shergar Cup is not something that would make me want to go racing. A jockey championship on a single day at the races it not what judges (IMO) who the best jockeys are around. The rules of racing state that jockeys should always be trying so that it is the best horse that wins a race, not the best jockey. Of course, not all men are created equal, so those jockeys with more natural ability succeed the most.

There is some decent racing at the other meetings today, notably at Haydock where racegoers have an 8-race card. My attention has been drawn to the final race on the card at 5:35 which looks particularly competitive. After considering the pace in the field (Karaka Jack & Dolphin Rock) I was going to advise a punt on MARKAZZI as he looks to still have some potential to improve beyond his rating. However, the 11/2 on offer this morning has gone and at 7/2 now he is no longer a "value" wager. I considered him a 4/1 chance.

Newmarket's meeting is disappointing from a wagering point of view, and I'm happy to give it a miss. Ditto the meeting at Redcar.

Lastly; I was very disappointed to hear of the retirement to stud of CANFORD CLIFFS in the week. He was an exceptional miler, one of the best we've seen in years. Was his last run affected by his injury? We'll never know for sure, tho' the doubters of Frankel will be saying it was. Personally, I saw enough at Goodwood last week to be sure in my own mind that Frankel is the best horse over a mile that I've seen since Brigadier Gerard.

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Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.