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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 17 May 2012

Fahey has the COMMON TOUCH

The 483rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The 2 trading opportunities I identified yesterday did well enough. First up was AREA FIFTY ONE and, as anticipated, he was in the leading pair till the 3-furlong pole. That's when he appeared to struggle, but he battled back into contention inside the 2-fulrong pole (never looked like winning) before fitness told and he faded. As such, I was lucky to get out - with not all my stake, but most – at 6.40. It was an encouraging run, and he's one I'll be looking out for when he next runs. The 2nd trade was on The CHEKA and what a performance, as he went down by just a head. I was on at 13.0 and traded-out at 6.20, and he actually went under 2.10 in-running. Connections thought he was unlucky not to win, and I agree with them as about 300 yards out the leader (at the time) Bogart "wobbled" under pressure and caused THE CHEKA to check, costing him at least half-a-length if not more.

Today, I'm looking at York again and in the Middleton Stakes at 2:00 we have a solid field of fillies contesting. I'm looking at a trading opportunity again – this flat season I am going to try and keep away from straight wagers as the form (I find) is too unreliable – and one that looks attractive is SET TO MUSIC. This progressive filly is a course winner over 1m4f so this extended 10-furlong trip is well within her scope, and she should handle the going. I also like that she's usually "prominent" and I'd expect Jamie Spencer to make full use of her stamina in this race. She could well win, but I'm going to be happy to trade-out at 3.10 in-running as she's currently trading at 7.20-7.40.

The next trading opportunity is in the 3:00, the Hambleton Handicap over a mile. This race looks very competitive and whether or not I play in it depends on whether I've been successful with SET TO MUSIC earlier on the card. I say the race is competitive, but the pace early on could well be a bit sedate as there does not look a lot of front-runners in the race. As such, I'm opting for a local runner that loves York (3 wins from 4 runs, 0 from 3 elsewhere) and has looked very progressive – COMMON TOUCH. This is a speculative selection, so I'll probably trade to half-stakes; but he's currently trading at 15.0-15.50 and I would expect him to trade at <5.0 in-running if he's as good as I think he is.

Since 1st January, I've only been trading on Betfair and I've done exceedingly well. I've increased my "bank" 8-fold (ie, I started with a 10pt bank and now I'm on approx. 85pts) and I only wager with bookmakers nowadays.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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