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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 3 January 2014

Another year over, and a new one just begun

It has been a long Christmas break and I'm a little glad to be back at my desk. The horseracing has been very interesting over this past couple of weeks and some results could well have significant bearings on the remainder of the season.

The success of SILVINIACO CONTI over CUE CARD in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day will likely lead to the latter returning to the Cheltenham Festival to endeavour to repeat his success in the Ryanair Chase rather than attempt the Gold Cup. It was easily a career-best effort from the winner and, had he repeated that in last years Gold Cup (he fell 3-out with a rare jumping error) then I think he'd have taken some beating. For me, CUE CARD is one of the bravest chasers going. Although he has improved a few pounds since winning the Ryanair Chase last March, he has possibly reached his ceiling at about 174-176. That puts him well clear of his potential rivals in the Ryanair Chase, but leaves him about 5-7lb short of the level required to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March. Hopefully, connections will take the easier target and aim for the Ryanair and current odds of 3/1 look hugely generous given the superiority he holds over his potential rivals.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup market was also given a vigorous shake-up not only due to the result of the KGVI Chase but by the victory of BOBS WORTH in the Lexue Chase in Ireland on 28th December. By my reckoning (and also Racing Post Ratings), this performance was perhaps 10-12lb below that of SILVINIACO CONTI. Even so, it was a remarkable come-back for the horse, tho' whether he can find another 12-15lb between now and March is debateable. As such, at the current odds there is only one horse I could possibly wager on for the Gold Cup, and he was also my advised wager last year, and that is SILVINIACO CONTI; currently available at 4/1 with a number of bookies.

William Hill go 3/1 CUE CARD (for the Ryanair) and 4/1 SILVINIACO CONTI (for the Gold Cup) and I'm having a £20 win double on that pair today.

I'm in a bit of a dilemma over production of my annual Cheltenham Bulletin. Normally I start producing my draft document about now, updating statistics from last years festival, and making early suggestions for wagers. But, last year, I lost my laptop and had no back-up of my horseracing files. As such, my statistical research for the previous 12 years has gone as well as "word" versions of my previous bulletins. My aim is always to issue the bulettin as soon as possible after Valentines Day on 14th February, but I do not think I have the time to reproduce the entire bulletin from scratch in the next few weeks. What I currently intend doing is producing a scaled-down version, focusing on some individual races but, before I embark on the exercise, I'd like to verify what the response would be. Last year, I sent out 45 copies of my Cheltenham Bulletin and I'd like to beat that total this year.

I've added a poll to the top-right of the blog page and would be gratetful if you could if you could answer the questions polled. If you are not interested then don't take part as I can then compare the number of site visits to the number of responses top guage the interest.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. Wager placed and, with Sir Des Champs declared out for the season this afternoon, both look well placed to provide me with a winning double.