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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Sunday 26 January 2014

BIG BUCKS beaten

I suppose it had to happen some time and, if it was going to happen, yesterday when returning off a 420-day break was possibly the most like time it would. Even so, it was a tremendous effort and (at the weights) he was the best horse in the race. I rated the performance equal to that when he won the Cleeve Hurdle in 2009 and a repeat in March will see him win the World Hurdle. He should come on a bit for the run, so I really cannot see any point in opposing him except if he has a recurrence of his injury between now and then which would prevent him taking part. Now out to 5/2 for the World Hurdle, he's looking like forming the mainstay of my antepost wagers.

I did not have much luck with my recommended wagers. At Cheltenham, TAP NIGHT was disappointing having dropped too far off the pace early on. Being ridden by AP McCoy, I cannot imagine this tactic was planned so it is more likely the horse was playing-up. Even so, the horse made great progress before the 2nd-last and flirted with getting involved, but the effort proved too much. Had he run to the form expected he'd have won this race as he's about 12lb better than this. As expected, Double Ross ran a good race but in my opinion he's not improving he is just very consistent. If he goes up again, and it is likely, then he's going to find life tough. As for Wishful Thinking he bounced back to his best to take this. I've never thought him better than a 160 performer, but he does love Cheltenham and this was his 4th win from 6 starts at this 2m5f trip (he was 2nd on another occasion) and with 4 wins from 6 runs on soft ground, he was always likely to handle the heavy ground. This was an improvement on his run here in the Paddy Power when the ground then was possibly too quick for him.

At Doncaster, NIGHT IN MILAN ran a great race until the final half-mile when he literally ran out of puff. He was taken-on for the lead by Solix and the pace set by that horse was far too fast for the ground which looked more heavy than soft. As such, in my opinion the race collapsed in the final half-mile when the eventual winner The Rainbow Hunter and 2nd-placed Belle Anrai stayed on. Considering that Belle Anrai was easily brushed aside by NIGHT IN MILAN when they met over C&D in December and was only 4lb better off on Saturday, I'm sure that NIGHT IN MILAN would have run a lot better had he not been challenged for the lead by Solix.

Not a great day, but we only lost £16 of the £30 staked as TAP NIGHT secured 3rd place.

1 comment:

  1. Night In Milan ran well until he ran out of steam due to pace and late going change - Solix ran well with the first time visor and maybe worth keeping an eye on for a similar event on good/good to soft as his rating prob wont change that much.


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