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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 22 January 2014

Potential Festival double

Another quiet day on the jump racing scene today. Neither of the meeings at Catterick or Southwell hold any interest for me.
Looking ahead to the weekend, we have the exciting "Trials" day at Cheltenham on Saturday.
The feature race is the Argento Chase over 3m1f & 110 yards and the antepost fav ROCKY CREEK looks very interesting. Currently 5/2, he should be able to find a few pounds of improvement on his Hennessy run when 2nd to Triolo D'Alene especially on soft ground which will favour him a ;ot more than the "good" ground he encountered at Newbury LTO. He's never won in 4 races on "good" ground, but is 4 wins from 5 starts on round with the word "soft" in the description. The horse who beat him in the Hennessy, Triolo D'Alene, is the complete opposite regrding ground and has not won in 3 starts on "soft". He's also not run well in his 2 races at Cheltenham and that is enough doubt to strengthen the position of the fav Rocky Creek.
There is also a good handicap chase at Doncaster, the old Great Yorkshire Chase now known as the Skybet Chase. There are a couple in this race that interest me, but we'll have to wait until the final declarations as it would not surprise me if Unioniste goes to Cheltenham instead for th Argento Chase (where he can take 2nd place behind stablemate Rocky Creek). If so, the weights could go up a few pounds which will make me strongly consider NIGHT IN MILAN who has been aimed at this chase all season. This will be his Grand National. Trainer Keith Reveley loves having a winner at Doncaster.
Another wager I've been pondering over the past couple of days is a Cheltenham Festival win double on SPRINTER SACRE for the Champion Chase, and BIG BUCKS for the World Hurdle. The best odds available is 10/11 on Sprinter Sacre and 9/4 on Big Bucks with Sky-Bet - a £10 win wager would return £62.05 (a potential profit of £52.05). In my opinion, Sire De Grugy is not within a stone of Sprinter Sacre and I feel the Henderson horse will bounce back to his best at Cheltenham. Look at how Bobs Worth responded to his critics following his Betfair Chase flop. I get the feeling that Henderson has treated his Festival heroes with kid-gloves and that has meant they have both been beaten on their seasonal debut's. As for Big Bucks, this is a leap of faith. Trainer Paul Nicholls has a nack of keeping his horses at their peak well into the autumn of their careers, and his handling of Big Bucks to date cannot be faulted. If Big Bucks wins the Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday it will be business as usual and an SP for the coming World Hurdle of 4/9. If he loses on Saturday then we could see the plug pulled on an illustrious career and a send-off into retirement.
I'm still pondering this wager, and will come back to it on Saturday morning.

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