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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 30 January 2014

There's Gold in them there hills

Just the one jump race meeting today, at Wincanton. The ground is heavy (soft in places) but no further rain is anticipated. The Clerk of the course reports that they have the “driest ground since November”, there today.

It is getting close to the end of the period when trainers with Cheltenham Festival entries must try and get their final preparatory run into their horses.  If they haven’t got a run in by Sunday 16th (at the latest) then their chances at the Festival will be severely diminished.

There are a couple of interesting races here. The 2:40 is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2m5f with 9 runners. The fav is Bennys Mist who won 2 weeks ago in a race that I reviewed on the blog. My selection that day was Denali Highway who ran an absolute stinker due, I think, to the extremely sloppy ground. Personally, I didn’t think much of that win by Bennys Mist as he merely coped best with the conditions, but he’s been raised 6lb and that may be too much for him today. I can’t side with Bertie Boru as he basically only beat one other horse LTO over todays C&D. Venetia Williams (trainer of Bennys Mist) also runs Carrickboy who, coincidentally, ran in this race last year before going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival.  However, he pulled-up that day despite having won earlier in the month on heavy ground, and he’s a quirky horse who if in the mood would win this easily. Ultragold has only had 3 races in the UK (he was racing in France before that) and he’s been found wanting for stamina on the last couple of runs over 3-mile, despite travelling strongly. This drop to 2m5f could be just what he’s looking for and, having won on similar ground in France (twice), he looks interesting. Forgotten Gold did not seem to enjoy racing around the National fences at Aintree LTO but his form before that puts in in the frame for this, altho’ today’s trip is on the short side. He does like to run prominently tho’ and that could be to his advantage today.  Current odds of 7/1 look very fair and make him an eachway chance.  Rank outsider Coolking won at Sligo in Ireland last October on heavy ground, and he could sneak a place at long odds. The ground is against Requin; Rouge Et Blanc will find this trip more suitable than his last few runs over shorter but his OR127 rating looks too high for him to be competitive.  Webberys Dream usually goes well at Wincanton but he’s coming here today off a long break. The one that looks to be the best value is FORGOTTEN GOLD as you can excuse his run LTO and before that he was looking like a chaser who could potentially be OR145+.

The 3:40 at Wincanton is an interesting race in that all 4 of the runners in this 2-mile novices handicap chase are on my alert list. Brick Red may find his OR135 rating a bit high as he’s not a horse who stays much beyond 2-mile. Notarfbad will probably not enjoy this heavy ground. As for Tresor De Bontee, he won his chase debut beating Lord Of House and that won won NTO looking very useful and is now rated OR138. That makes the OR122 rating for Tresor De Bontee look a tad harsh. As such, that makes the highly tried Close House look interesting if he can improve his jumping.  The heavy ground will be not be a problem for him, and being a winner over 2m6f at Wincanton on heavy ground as a hurdler, he’s got plenty of stamina. That said, his chase rating of OR138 looks very stiff and is obviously taken from his form as a hurdler.  It’s unlikely that Close House will go any longer in the odds than 3/1, but he may well go shorter and so push out the odds on Tresor De Bontee.  If I can obtain 9/4 (or longer) on Tresor De Bontee then I’ll be tempted to have a wager on this race.

Wincanton 2:40 FORGOTTEN GOLD, £5 win & £5 eachway @ 7/1 with William Hill (5th odds a place, best odds guarantee)

Total = £15 staked

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