A good day of jump-racing with 3 meetings at Ludlow, Market Rasen and Wincanton.
The meeting at Ludlow has a couple of interesting races in the amateur riders chase race at 2:10 over 3-miles, and the mares' handicap hurdle over 3-miles at 2:40. For me, amateur riders races are all about jockeyship and hoping your jockey manages to stay in the saddle; so they are not great betting mediums. I am also very familiar with the fav Rydalis and, while his odds of 11/2 look fair, this horse would prefer a trip under 3-mile. The mares' hurdle should go to one of the market leaders: Mini Muck or Too Generous, but as both are 9/4 or shorter this race is not a wagering race for me. The novices limited handicap at 3:10 over a trip of 2-mile brings together and interesting field. The ground being heavy looks against C&D winner Zarzal; and Lord Of House looks held by the handicapper. There has been plenty of money for Rio De Sivola but I feel this horse is too short in the market at just 2/1 and it would not surprise me that thius heavy ground may slow things down enough for Tour D'Argent to get involved. It would be a leap of faith to recommend him, so this is another watching race.
Market Rasen has an alert horse of mine – FIRTH OF THE CLYDE – running in the 2:10, a class 3 handicap chase over 2m2f. He is a very lightly-raced 9yo and this will only be his 3rd chase. There is a doubt that he will stay this trip as he's only run over the minimum, but he should cope with the ground (soft). The fav is the French import Upepito, having his UK debut today for Venetia Williams. This horse could be anything, but the odds of 7/4 are too skinny for me to consider. This is another race that I will give a miss and just watch.
Finally we have Wincanton, my attention is caught by my alert runner DENALI HIGHWAY in the 1:50. This horse made great strides after leaving Alan King for Caroline Bailey winning twice over this trip on soft ground. He was in need of the run when reappearing at Wetherby in March over 3m1f, and you can ignore his last run over 3m3f as he doesn't stay that sort of trip. Even so, he proved his well-being and fitness that day and comes here with a lot in his favour, and should handle the heavy ground. The race-fav Bennys Mist loves heavy ground but, even so, he's looked out of sorts this season and needs to recapture his best form. I think this trip will test the stamina of Marie Des Angles; and Forest Walker looks to be struggling of his current rating which is 11lb higher than that which he won off on 1st November. Mic's Delight is the joker in the pack as he ran an improved performance LTO. This slightly shorter trip will help him and he'll handle the ground too; but I would not consider him to have the same chance as DENALI HIGHWAY yet they are both at the same odds: 9/2.
There was no blog yesterday as I didn't have the time to write one (it was reporting day at the office), but I did post up a couple of selections on twitter (my moniker is @wayward_lad) HANDY ANDY and TUTCHEC. Unfortunately, HANDY ANDY ran absolutely no sort of race and pulled-up when tailed-off with 4 fences still to jump. Thankfully, TUTCHEC made amends wining at 4/1. Proven over the trip and on heavy ground, I thought he'd start 2nd-fav at 9/4 to Imperial Vic who had to prove himself over this trip on heavy. As these selections were not included on the blog, I will not take any profit for them.
Selection:
Wincanton 1:50 DENALI HIGHWAY, £15 win @ 9/2 (William Hill and Coral, both go BOG)
Very disappointing from DENALI HIGHWAY who was struggling almost before they'd gone half-a-mile. Never jumping fluently, I can only assume he was hating the ground which was very wet. I'm giving this horse one more chance.
ReplyDelete