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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday 20 January 2014
Close, but not close enough
I do feel a bit robbed tho' as for both races I gave a good plug for the eventual winner. When I assess a race, I very nearly always start writing the blog not knowing what my eventual selection will be, so you can read my thought process. With the GRANDIOSO race, I've always thought this was a good horse if not a world-beater and, as such, one that we can obtain a decent price on when placing a wager. It is never easy when a trainer has a couple of entries in the same race and, as I wrote in the blog, I was finding it difficult to split the pair on ability. I sided with Grandioso as he had the benefit of the 5lb allowance claimed by jockey Harry Derham. Unfortunately, I was wrong and Bury Parade, who had showed he was capable of a +150 performance when btn on just a nose on 31st Jan last year, bounced right back to form on his favorite heavy ground (now 5 wins from 9 starts on soft/heavy, plus that "nose" defeat). Perhaps what I should have done was placed a "saver" wager in the form of a straight forecast on Bury Parade to beat Grandioso, as I could not see any of the others in the race being involved in the finish. The exacta paid £24.00 to a £1 stake, so only a small wager on the forecast would have been enough to turn a profit.
The Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock was very exciting. The selection VINTAGE STAR was always up with the pace and took up the lead before 2-out. He looked like moving into a decisive lead on the run-up to the final fence but was unable to do so. As such, after leading over the final fence, he succumbed to the challenge of the winner - whose jockey was in receipt of a 7lb claim and he'd already won the opening race of the meeting - and had nothing left to give. In fact, he almost lost 2nd place on the run-in to Merry King who was staying on strong. The winner Wychwoods Brook was unexposed at this trip, never having run beyond 2m5f and having only won at 2m4f. I did write that he could be the "joker in the pack" but only someone with a crystal ball could have picked him out as a potential winner before the race based on the form book.
So, from the wagers we made a small loss with GRANDIOSO returning £12.44 (after a 15% Rule 4 deduction) for the £15 stake; and VINTAGE STAR returning £12.00. The loss on the day was £5.56.
Even so, readers of the blog should have lumped onto SIRE DE GRUGY who won the Grade 1 Chase later in the afternoon at Ascot. The SP of 5/4 was very generous, and he even went 6/4 at one stage before the off. Old stager Somersby was never a realistic rival as he'd have needed a career-best effort to win and that was never on the cards. Can Sire De Grugy win the Champion Chase? Only if Sprinter Sacre doesn't take part in my view. Sire De Grugy is about 162-163 and that's about 20lb behind Sprinter Sacre at his best. Put it this way, I'd bet on Cue Card to beat Sire De Grugy at levels around Cheltenham in the Champion Chase.