After the hullabaloo of this week, it’s back to what we
know best – Cheltenham and the Festival trials meeting. I have an absolute
stack of runners from my alert list and I’ll try and sort thru’ those to find
us all a decent wager.
Cheltenham:
1:50 – RENARD, TAP NIGHT, SHANGANI
2:25 – HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ROCKY CREEK
3:00 – RED SHERLOCK
3:35 – REVE DE SIVOLA, QUARTZ DE THAIX,
4:10 - WATERUNDER
This meeting at Cheltenham is one that I await eagerly
and I’ve had some good results at in the past. The first race on my radar is
the 1:50, a Grade 3 handicap over 2m5f. Of my alert list runners I’m going to
delete Renard as (off OR143) he’s handicapped to the hilt; and Shangani is best
at trips less than 2m4f. I like the chance of TAP NIGHT; he’s slipped down the
ratings from OR153 to OR142 and he’s much better suited by soft/heavy ground
than the “good” ground he’s run on recently.
His 2nd to Cloudy Too (went on to win the Rowland Meyrick) in
November on heavy ground looks very good now, and he meets Double Ross on 18lb
better terms from their last encounter. Double Ross looks held now, tho’ he’s
sure to be thereabouts as he loves Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls runs both Cedre
Bleu and Ulck Du Lin, but the former is held on form and the latter is an
in-and-out performer. Our Mick is a much
better performer on Good-to-soft or better ground, but he could be thereabouts
as he’s well handicapped off OR140. Kumbeshwar looks held, as does Wishful
Thinking. Finally, Sew On Target has run 5 times at Cheltenham without winning,
and is probably better over a shorter trip. Odds of 9/1 (BetVictor) about TAP
NIGHT look huge as I’d have expected him to be the 9/2 2nd-fav to
Double Ross as he the ground, trip and AP McCoy in the saddle.
The Argento Chase should go to ROCKY CREEK and he’s the
6/4 fav for this race. He could be followed home by Harry Topper if that one
jumps a bit better, or Champion Court. I’m not sure that Houblon Des Obeaux
goes best at left-handed tracks as a chaser (won here over hurdles).
I’m certainly expecting RED SHERLOCK to maintain his
unbeaten run, and he’s 6/4 to do so.
And who can oppose the mighty BIG BUCKS? I’ve already
suggested taking the 2/1 about him for the World Hurdle as, should he win this
race as expected, then he’ll be 4/9 for the Festival.
Doncaster:
12:25 – HIDDEN JUSTICE
12:55 – FOX APPEAL
1:30 – RODY, KING OF THE WOLDS
3:15 – NIGHT IN MILAN, GULLINBURSTI, KRUZHLININ
The
Doncaster meeting is also a cracker and worthy of being the feature meeting of
the day. The meeting opens with a handicap hurdle over 2m3f and altho’ Hidden
Justice was noted by me last Feb when winning over 2-mile on soft at Catterick,
his seasonal debut 3-weeks ago was poor. I’m expecting a much improved run
today. Altho’ Fox Appeal is on my alert list, I cannot seriously see him
troubling the ex-Champion Hurdler ROCK ON RUBY.
The
1:30 is a 2-mile class 2 handicap chase, and the ground being good-to-soft will
probably be too quick for Rody who needs it soft/heavy. My other alert list
runner, KING OF THE WOLDS was unlucky to meet and in-form Pepite Rose LTO and
was out-classed. He can go close in this as I think he’s well-treated on form
off OR132.
The
feature race at Doncaster is the Skybet Chase over 3-mile. There are 3 alert
runners in the race and I can see them all contesting the finish. Gullinbursti
hasn’t won beyond 2m6f from 7 attempts, so it’s difficult to see him rectifying
that stat in this competitive race, but he could be placed. McCain’s Kruzhlinin
has looked an improved performer since stepping up in trip from 2m4f, winning
his last couple of starts. But all 6 of his wins have come in fields of 9 or
less runners and when faced with 19 rivals at Cheltenham last March (with trip
and ground in his favour) he struggled. It may be worth watching him for the
first mile to see how he goes and, if favourable, having a small
in-running wager. It is NIGHT In MILAN who I have liked the look of all week,
and I did mention him on Wednesday, and he is 12/1 available generally, tho’
Bet365 go eachway 4 places. The trip and going will be perfect for NIGHT IN
MILAN, and he’s a course winner too winning here LTO over C&D. After that
win I wrote: NIGHT IN MILAN has been on
my alert list since running 3rd to Chac Du Cadran in the North Yorkshire
National (10Jan13). This horse is a very good 3-mile chaser (tho' his stamina
cannot be relied upon beyond 3m1f) and he went one-better than his 2nd in the
same race last year at Doncaster. This has to go down as a missed opportunity
for me. He held his form well last season and so long as he's not raced on
soft/heavy or beyond 3m1f, then he can be followed.
The
fav Unioniste will run well, but I feel that his rating is OR153 is high enough
for him and he’ll not be able to carry topweight to victory.
Selections
Cheltenham
1:50 TAP NIGHT, £5 win & £5 eachway @ 9/1 with Bet Victor (5th
odds a place 1,2,3)
Doncaster
3:15 NIGHT IN MILAN, £5 win & £5 eachway @ 12/1 with Bet365 (¼ odds a place
1,2,3,4)
Total
staked = £30
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