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Thursday 19 November 2015

It's not about winning, it's about value

When I looked at the racing meetings in yesterday's edition of the Weekender, the one horse I thought could be a wager was CLOUDY BOB at Market Rasen in the 2m5f class 3 handicap chase at 1:30pm. When I looked at the early odds available at 5pm last night, Ladbrokes were offering 7/1 about Cloudy Bob, which I thought looked interesting, and Bet365 were offering 6/1 with no other bookies yet priced-up.  When I next looked at the odds for the race at about 8pm, Cloudy Bob was 5/1 across-the-board.

We know Cloudy Bob needs soft ground and about 20-21f, and if you throw-in a right-handed track, even better!  He has all those ticks today, and the last time he had them he ran 2nd at Kempton off OR122 (he is on OR119 today) recording an RPR of 128.  Currently, he's best-priced at 7/2. So, is that value?

Dartford Warbler has never won on soft (or worse) ground, or at trips beyond 2m4f; so it's unlikely that he will win today. Rio Milan won on soft ground in April, and goes well right-handed. He also ran well over 3-mile LTO, in a race were the form has stood-up well. he looks a big danger. Shockingtimes is at about his level on OR120.  He's very consistent, but one-paced, and will likely be tapped for speed on the run-in again. Russborough is a bit of an unknown quantity, and his trainer Venetia Williams likes to keep you guessing with her young horses. His seasonal debut wasn't anything special and he may well have needed that run, so improvement is expected. Cayman Islands is going the right way, and won his first chase LTO.  He's also won over hurdles on soft ground, and he is another who could improve a lot on what we have already seen, even tho' he's up 7lb for that LTO win. Up For An Oscar could win this doing cartwheels if he's in the mood off OR120, but he seems to have lost the plot since winning at Worcester over 2m7f in September last year. He's not run since May this year, so being fresh may put him in the mood - or it may not.
Harristown is another potential improver, as he's having only his 2nd chase race.  He was gently introduced on his chase debut, and this is a lot tougher, but he was rated OR132 over hurdles and will handle the soft ground and stay this trip (based on his hurdles form), so running off OR125 is interesting - except that he's carrying 11st 12lb and giving weight away all-round. The final pair of Owen Glendower and She's Late are outclassed.

I make this race between Cloudy Bob, Rio Milan, and Cayman Islands and, at the current odds - there is no value in Cloudy Bob at 7/2.  Cayman Islands is interesting, especially at 10/1 with William Hill (also 9/1 with Coral and Skybet), but the one that looks a potential winner and good value is RIO MILAN, at 7/1 with Paddy Power, BetVictor, Stan James and Boyles. Trainer Fergal O'Brien hasn't had many winners recently, but he has a great strike-rate at Market Rasen (24%) and he's booked Paddy Brennan for the ride, and Brennan rides most of the winning horses coming out of the O'Brien stable.  I'd have RIO MILAN at 4/1 for this, so 7/1 is good value in my book.

Market Rasen 1:30pm: RIO MILAN; £5 eachway @ 7/1 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)

1 comment:

  1. Well, I didn't expect that result!
    Dartford Warbler went out at a very strong pace (for the ground) and had most of the field on the ropes before 3-out. From about 6-out (open-ditch) I thought he'd run out of steam at any moment, but he ran-on strong. From 3-out he only had the one-paced Shockingtimes to see-off, and this was a good performance for the grade.
    Both Cloudy Bob and Rio Milan were beaten a long way out, but Dartford Warbler was a blot on the handicap based on this result.