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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 6 November 2015

Some you win, some you don't

It has been an up-and-down week after the euphoria of last weekend.
I have looked at 5 races and come up with 2 selections, both of which have been well beaten - but the other 3 races have had a "next best" (but not quite good enough to be advised as a selection) who have all gone on to win!
Yesterday was a prime example.  The selection Valleyofmilan was sent off at 12/1 which were tremendous odds considering there were only 6 runners and he was guaranteed to stay the trip and handle the ground.  All was going well, though I'd have preferred the horse to have been ridden more prominently, until the horse made a slight error at the 1st fence on the 2nd-circuit (5-out, there were 3 fences omitted of the 8 fences per circuit). The young jockey should have ensured the horse had a good look going into the next, but he didn't and there the horse made a bad error losing a lot of ground.  It was difficult from the camera angle (head-on) to see how much ground was lost, but when the field passed the camera as they turned into the home straight, Valleyofmilan was about 16-lengths off the lead and well behind the 4th horse (Problematic Tic had already been pulled-up). Up to this stage, the race had been run at a good pace, and that pace was starting to tell on the leaders. As such, Valleyofmilan made-up considerable ground to be, at the post, beaten less than 4-lengths - and he was making-up ground so quick on the leading pair he'd probably have passed them in another 150 yards. He is only a 5lb-claimer but the jockey, James Cowley, let us down there as I will be surprised if the winner of the race Cobajayisland wins over a trip of 3-mile again once he's been re-rated. 

The other race I looked at, a novice chase at Market Rasen, seemed a "toss-up" between the race fav No No Mac having his chase debut, and another chase debutant Kingswell Theatre who. at 9/2 in the morning, seemed by far the best value in the race. After blundering at the 9th fence (of 14), No No Mac lost his confidence and quickly became tailed-off, which left the race at the mercy of Kingswell Theatre who won eased-down in a canter at an SP of 11/4. After this, I was kicking myself for not, perhaps, suggesting a "split-stake" wager on the race, with £5 win on both No No Mac and £5 win on Kingswell Theatre. I am aware that some of those on the email list are not regular punters on the horses, and I don't want to make the betting advice given too sophisticated.  Or should I? Would anyone object if I suggested a split-stake wager on 2 horses in the same race?  I would welcome comments on the matter.

There are 3 meetings over the jumps today at Fontwell, Hexham and Musselburgh. With all the rain here in the South East, it is no surprise to see the ground at Fontwell is "soft", and it could well be worse than that.  No suitable races for a wager there.

Hexham also does not have any races suitable for a wager, as I'm sticking to races of Class 3 or better. That said, the opening maiden hurdle has the interestingly well-bred Cloudy Dream whose dam (Run Away Dream) is a half-sister to the Grade 1, 2-mile chaser Get Real.  This gelding could make rapid progress through the ranks and whatever he does this season will be a bonus, as he will be chasing next season. One for the alert list on breeding alone.  

At Musselburgh, we have an alert list runner in the 3m2f handicap chase at 2:30pm, but the race is only a Class 4.  The alert is The Backup Plan, however, both his last couple of wins have been at trips under 2m4f, so whether he will stay this 3m2f trip is anyone's guess. Will will watch and learn on this occasion

At 3:30pm there is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2m4f, with a strong fav in Village Vic.  He won LTO and has been raised only 4lb to OR129. I thought that was a great performance and, should he improve a few pounds for the run, he could post a 135+ run today.  That should be good enough to win as, although the 2nd-fav Mwaleshi will appreciate this trip (has been running over 3-mile recently), he really wants soft ground to show his best form.  A more interesting challenge may come from Kodicil, who won his last chase race (has since run on the flat, so comes here race-fit), and that looks very good form.  His nearest challengers that day have both won since, and both have been raised 9lb by the handicapper.  As such, if Kodicil met them both today he'd be a 1lb better-off even though he beat them well when they met in 20th September, as he's only gone up 8lb in the handicap! So, is he a handicap "good-thing"?   Possibly, but more likely not.  Village Vic was highly tried as a novice hurdler, and was only beaten less than 3-lengths by The New One (went on to win the Neptune Novice hurdle at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival and now rated OR162), so I'd expect Village Vic to be capable of achieving an OR145+ rating as a chaser given time and experience. As he's at best-odds of 6/4, this is a no-bet race for me.

No wagers advised today, so I will start looking at the weekends racing.  Just to inform you that there may not be a blog on Sunday at that is my birthday - so I will likely give myself the day off!

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