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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday 24 November 2015

Rain makes horseracing heavy going

This week, which leads up to the "Hennessy" meeting at Newbury, is fairly quiet, with most races at the lower end of the racing scale.
I find that, rather than "trying" to find a wager, it is better to hang on and wait and be patient for the better quality racing which will come in a few days time.
That said, I always peruse the day's racing to see if there are any "ricks" in the betting, or to follow-up on any alert list horses that are declared to run.
We have an alert list runner today at Lingfield in the Class 3 2m7f handicap chase at 3:00pm. There has been an enormous amount of rain over Sussex in the past 24-hours and, understandably, the ground is "heavy". When it is heavy at Lingfield, the ground is almost bottomless and, as I write this, I'm getting less and less likely to advise a wager today. The alert list runner is UMBERTO D'OLIVATE who went onto the list after running 3rd to Saroque at Exeter 3-weeks ago.

I've just learned (9:25am) that Umberto D'Olivate is a non-runner.

Given the state of the ground today I have decided that it is probably best to give the day's racing a miss. It will come down to which horse moves through the mud best and has the best attitude to racing in what will be atrocious conditions - and the winner will likely have little to do with known formlines.

Tomorrow, there are meetings at Fontwell and Wetherby and, while there are no suitable races at Fontwell, we may have an opportunity at Wetherby in the 2-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 2:25pm. The advance going is soft, so it will all depend on how much rain falls today, and how many horses remain entered in the morning. At this stage there are a couple of alert list runners in the race.

Thursday brings the opening day of the "Hennessy" meeting at Newbury, and there are several suitable races that day, so I'm happy to wait and be patient.  In the meantime, I will look ahead a the form for the big race itself - the Hennessy Gold Cup (handicap) Chase - on Saturday and try and find a value wager in the race.

It's likely that any antepost value in the Hennessy Gold Cup will be advised by email to those on the email list on either Thursday or Friday.  For the Paddy Power Gold Cup 2-weeks ago, I gave those on the email list the names of 3-horses to take antepost odds on 2-days before the race itself, and that shortlist of 3 included the winner Annacotty.

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