As I wrote yesterday, it's not about winning - it's about value.
The premise being that you cannot win with every wager so, if you maintain a "value" based betting ethic then you will profit in the long-run, I was completely blown-away by the performance of the Dartford Warbler yesterday, who made a mockery of his OR117 rating with an all-the-way win at a very strong pace over a trip I thought he would not stay (not as a chaser, anyway). That was only his 8th chase race and he could be one to follow for his next 2 or 3 runs. The pace he set did for the pair in the race that I considered; with neither alert-list runner Cloudy Bob, nor selection Rio Milan, able to get in a blow. I took my eye off the ball with this race and, once I had assessed that alert-list runner Cloudy Bob was no longer value, I should have let the race go and not looked for a "substitute" selection.
Before I move on to looking at the day's racing; I must comment on an event which happened on Thursday - one which probably would not have happened before the advent of social media. Racehorse trainer Sheena West, whom I know as she trained the first syndicate horse that I was involved in a few years ago, sent out 4 horses to race at Wincanton and Lingfield. All 4 were (are) moderate animals yet, for some unknown reason, a gamble began rolling in mid-morning. None of the horses ever got near the winner and everybody was left bemused. What is particularly awful, is that Sheena West was subjected to a fair amount of abhorrent abuse on twitter - for something that was nothing to do with her at all. How the rumour started on twitter (it was promoted by a number of odds-comparison sites with the intention of receiving commissions on losing wagers) should be investigated and the culprits named and shamed.
For a Friday, there are a lot of alert-list runners; although some we cannot consider because of the race conditions and the odds available. There has been a lot of rain (the Ffos Las meeting for today was abandoned yesterday), and the ground will be soft, if not heavy, at both Ascot and Haydock.
At Haydock, the opening 2m7f handicap hurdle looks interesting and we have a couple of alert runners in it: Oscar Blue and Hidden Justice. It was May 2014 when Hidden Justice last ran over hurdles, when he won at Haydock over 2m5f, and on OR125 he looks well handicapped, but the soft ground is against him today. Oscar Blue has gone into many a notebook for his two wins over hurdles this autumn, but his opening rating of OR125 looks a bit rich as he won both those races by a "neck".
Also on my alert list at Haydock are novice chasers Doctor Phoenix and Silsol, but both run in 3-runner races and their odds are under 9/4 which means they are too short to be advised as a wager - but I expect both to go close.
At Ascot, Loose Chips makes a quick reappearance after falling at Cheltenham last Friday, in the 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at 3:15pm. Unfortunately for us, he's the current market leader at 9/2. So, is that value? The 2nd-fav is the 5yo French-import having his UK debut Achille, sent by Venetia Williams - your guess is as good as mine with this one. Bob Tucker is a stablemate of Loose Chips, but he's not shown any real form on soft/heavy ground, with 3 wins on "good". However, he is race fit with a decent win LTO. Sands Cove just about clambered over the final fence when winning LTO. That was the first time he'd tackled 3-mile (normally seen over 2-miles) and his stamina is unlikely to last out in this stronger race. For a 9yo Desert Joe hasn't seen much racing, and he pulled-up LTO on his seasonal debut, but he ran well enough last season to suggest he's in with a chance here if he gets into a rhythm, but there is a doubt about the ground if it is very soft. Caulfields Venture is another who will not appreciate the soft ground, even if he's a LTO winner. Financial Climate will be having his 22nd chase race today, and he's very consistent and capable of winning this at his best. He should handle the ground, with wins on both soft and heavy in his form, and the trip of 3-mile is no problem as he's won over 3m2f. Today is his seasonal debut, but he ran well on his debut last year on ground that was a bit quick for him, and he has a better chance than his 10/1 odds suggest. As I consider that LOOSE CHIPS has about 8lb in-hand on my personal ratings, he's worth a wager today with conditions in his favour and fairly weak opposition.
Ascot 3:15pm, LOOSE CHIPS, £10 win @ 9/2 (Stan James, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
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Friday, 20 November 2015
Pick up the Loose Chips
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Sometimes, the results just don't go your way!ReplyDelete
LOOSE CHIPS had that race won, then pulled himself up and threw the race away!