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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 5 November 2015

Slim pickings despite three meetings

This may be a short blog as although there are 3 meetings over the jumps, the quality of horseracing is most Class 4 or lower.

There is a Class 3 handicap chase at Market Rasen at 2:45pm, but it is for novice chasers. However, the race does include a horse from my alert list in No No Mac who is having his chase debut. Last season No No Mac ran 2 game, consistent performances when the word "soft" was in the going description; but his final 2 races of last season, as well as his final race of the 2013-14 season, were run on "good" ground and he didn't excel.  The ground is forecast to be "soft" at Market Rasen, so that is a good pointer. The trip is good too, at 2m5f, but the odds are too short to advise as a wager at 7/4 (Note: I do not advise wagers on selections with odds shorter than 9/4).  The 2nd-fav Father Edward wants "good" ground and nothing worse, so he's at a disadvantage. The 3rd-Fav is Kingswell Theatre who is also having his chase debut. He also enjoys soft ground, and will have the stamina for this trip, and his full-brother Prince Tom (now an 11yo) came into his own over fences and has won off OR137, so there is scope for Kingswell Theatre off OR125 and his odds at 9/2 look very fair. If this were a hurdle then Raktiman would be well fancied, but his chase debut was disappointing and he's best watched; as is Big Jim who looks on a high mark at OR120 compared to his achievements over hurdles.  Overall, a no-bet race for me but, if tempted to have a wager, it would be a small wager on Kingswell Theatre at 9/2.

There is a Class 3 handicap chase over 3-mile at Musselburgh contested by just 6-runners at 2:35pm. This race has some scope for a wager as the fav Cobajayisland may have had a recent run 25-days ago, but he's not suggested in his career to date that he's capable of winning at this sort of trip. All his form is around 2m4f and he's not a 7/4 chance in my eyes.  The 2nd-fav Swing Hard has had a torrid time this past year as his form has gone, and his latest run didn't provide much encouragement that he was on the way back.  Add to that he was well beaten at level-weights last March by Red Admirable and, although meeting that one on 16lb better terms he is unlikely to reverse the placings. That day in March, Red Admirable had the race won when clouting the final fence, and his jumping can be erratic - it cost him the race when last seen - and he's likely to be exposed by his poor jumping again. Problematic Tic was a decent horse 2 years ago, capable of a 135+ performance, but he can't be relied on these days; even so he may decide to rekindle his form. Both Valleyofmilan and Purcells Bridge have winning form over fences at 3-mile, with Purcells Bridge having a win over C&D in January this year on soft ground. That the ground at Musselburgh is "good", and that he's also had a recent run, has swung me towards Valleyofmilan,  His win on good ground at Bangor over 3-mile in Aug14 looks good enough to take this if repeated. Also, his LTO race was a good one, and I've put the 1st and 2nd onto my alert list. Valleyofmilan was tenderly ridden but stayed on well in the final half-mile and if that race has brought him on a few pounds that could be enough to see him take this race, and current odds of 8/1 in this 6-runner race look generous given some of the runners have fairly weak form credentials for this 3-mile handicap chase, and I'd have him at about 7/2. There is a possibility of rain at Musselburgh but it is likely to fall after the race, so the ground should remain good for the race.

The meeting at Towcester has no opportunities.

Looking at Friday's racing, there does not look to be much opportunity for a wager.  So VALLEYOFMILAN it is and the horse should give us a good run as he's a safe jumper and 5lb claimer James Cowley has a good relationship with him.

Musselburgh 2:35 - VALLEYOFMILAN, £5 eachway @ 8/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Hills and Betfred all go BOG (best odds guaranteed) and quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Total staked = £10

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