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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 14 November 2015

She's "Simply the best!"

Nina Carberry - yet again - demonstrated what a superbly talented jockey she is yesterday with 2 wins at Cheltenham, including steering blog selection KNOCK HOUSE to a tremendous win.  I wrote that I thought Knock House had about 10lb in-hand going into the race, and he was going so easily when jumping upsides the leader 5-out that you could call him the winner then.  Nina Carberry could have won the race by 20-lengths, but she won the race with a supremely confident ride by just a "neck".  The handicapper will have a job on to catch hold of this one!  Both the other selections lost, and while Loose Chips will have another day, Silver Roque has had his final run from the alert list.

Another tremendous day's racing ahead of us at Cheltenham. But first, the alert list runners and, being Cheltenham, there is a stack from the alert list running, and they cannot all win. As on previous Saturday's, I will not name all those on the alert list that are running (to preserve the integrity of my list), only those that I consider have a great chance. There is the likelihood over heavy rain in the morning, so the ground may be softish for the first race, but getting quicker as the day progresses.

One from the alery list is Vintage Vinnie in the 3-mile Class 2 novice chase at 1:15pm at Cheltenham. This race is a definite step-up in grade from his previous race (in which he fell), but I reckon he will show just how good he is in this race, and while he may not win, he should go close.

The 3m3f Grade 3 handicap Chase at 1:50pm is a favourite race of mine, as I tipped Monbeg Dude to win the race in 2012 when he won at 25/1 (I also tipped him when he went on to win the Welsh National with his next race).  The ground will be key in this race, as it has changed to Good-to-soft due to overnight rain.  As such, I've had to re-write the blog this morning! The ground now suits Black Thunder and despite top-weight his OR153 rating is lenient as I think he's a 158-160 horse. . The same can be said for Shotgun Paddy, who has slipped to OR145 - the softer ground will be in his favour. There are a couple that must be on the shortlist: Godsmejudge who was 5th in this in 2013 off OR148, and races off OR139 which is the rating from which he won the Scottish National in 2013. He was aimed at the Grand National last season, but the race didn't suit him. The Romford Pele ran well off a very long break LTO, and we should see an improvement for that run.  If he can repeat the form of his win in the "Summer Cup" of 29June14 over 3m2f he will be bang in the mix. Knockanrawley will be having only his 7th chase race, but he's looked a stayer with a future in his last 2 races in 2014-15, and his OR136 rating looks very lenient.  The 6yo Audacious Plan is another young horse on the way up, who will also also prefer the softer ground. Sausalito Sunrise looked like he was capable of beating Drop Out Joe (who won again last week) when they met at Chepstow, but was pulled-up. Nothing was wrong, and he comes into this possibly the best handicapped horse in the race. The betting has an 8/1 fav in Upswing (who will be a better horse on soft ground), which shows how wide-open the race is. I could choose 4 or 5 and not find the winner, but Kim Bailey has his stable firing on all cylinders. His entry KNOCKANRAWLEY will stay every yard, love the ground, and at 14/1 (available generally) he looks great eachway value.

The feature race of the day is the Grade 3 Paddy Power gold Cup handicap chase over 2m4f & 78 yards at 2:25pm.  With 20 top class handicappers going to post, this looks a very tough nut to crack, especially as I think there are two potential Ryanair Chase winners in the race in Sound Investment and Irish Cavalier. If either of these horses are capable of winning the Ryanair Chase next March, then they will go very close (if not win) today.  No horse older than 8yo has won this in the past 10-years; this race is all about untapped potential held in young horses. With only one winner carrying over 11st in the last 8 years; weight is also a pointer for the most likely winner. Earlier this week, I gave those on the email list 3 horses in the race that I thought would be "market movers" and likely to be involved in the finish: Johns Spirit; Annacotty, and Present View. If Johns Spirit wins the race I will be cheering him home as he's provided me and blog readers with some great days and plenty of profit, but I feel there will be 1 or 2 too good for him - he 's a great "place-only" wager on the exchanges.  The change in the ground has affected my selection. Had it remained "good" it would likely be a bit too quick for Annacotty; and I'd favour Present View, who I think has been aimed at this since he was 3rd in the race last year off OR144. He comes here on OR143 which means he's 2lb better-off with Johns Spirit on last years run.  As the rain has got into the ground, then Annacotty's chance has improved and at 20/1 (available generally) we should get a good run from the horse who is having his debut for trainer Alan King.  I've not mentioned the race-fav Kings Palace as I feel this race is a bit of a fav's graveyard, and this year looks one of the best renewals of recent years; it's an immense field.
After a re-think due to the ground, there are just too many now with a chance with the softer ground, and I could name 5 or even 6, and still not have the winner.

At Wetherby in the 2:05pm, alert list runner Voyage A New York has his seasonal debut. Last February, he beat Wakanda, which is good enough for me. Yes, he received 8lb from the runner-up but we all know Wakanda is a very good horse. This trip of 2m3f is a bit short - he would prefer 2m6f+ but the ground is soft which will test stamina, and odds of 9/2 (Bet365, Bet Victor) look generous to me.

Cheltenham 1:50pm KNOCKANRAWLEY; £5 eachway @ 14/1 (available generally, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Wetherby 2:05pm VOYAGE A NEW YORK; £10 win @ 9/2 (Bet 365, Bet Victor)
Total staked = £20


  1. Tremendous run from KNOCKANRAWLEY to be 3rd. He was beaten only by the horse I wrote was "possibly the best handicapped horse in the race" and the race-fav.
    Jumping 3-out he looked capable of winning and had he held his position on the far rail jumping the last fence, who knows? He may have nicked it.
    He will win a big race this season.
    As for Voyage A New York, what a disappointment: and he was well supported too starting at 5/2 (from 9/2).

  2. Great read as always Wayward Lad !

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