It seems to happen every jumps season, and yet I always need reminding.
The Alert List should (probably) followed blindly, with a level-stake wager on every runner from it.
Saturday's 11/1 winner of the feature race, Drop Out Joe, was on my alert list - but I overlooked him for another horse (A Good Skin) who ran 3rd.
Then, yesterday, there were 4 horses from the alert list running:
Silsol; Seeyouatmidnight; Salubrious; and Deputy Dan
- and two won (Silsol @ 5/2 and Salubrious @ 11/4) with the other pair being beaten in the same races. A level-stake wager at £10 win on all 4 from the alert list would have resulted in a profit of £32.50 on the total stakes of £40.
Today, there are 3 jump racing meetings at Sedgefield, Lingfield, and Huntingdon. I will endeavour to keep this blog short (time constraints).
There are no "value" wagering opportunities at Huntingdon.
Lingfield looks like it may have an opportunity in the Class 3, 2-mile handicap chase at 3:00pm. The ground at Lingfield is heavy, and when it is heavy at Lingfield, it really is heavy! Only 6-runners go to post in this race and, given the condition of the ground, those that can run on heavy ground are the ones to focus on. The market leaders, Gores Island and Tresor De Bontee, both have winning form on heavy ground and both are C&D winners on soft/heavy ground. On known form, one of this pair should win the race. The 5yo Walk In The Mill is having his UK debut having been racing in France, and the level of his form is an unknown. Of the other 3 in the race: Doctor Pheonix ran an awful chase debut on 21st October, and needs to find a vast improvement. Boss In Boots hasn't shown any ability on soft/heavy ground before today, and Morgan's Bay is held on form by Tresor De Bontee. It may be worth having a reverse-forecast on Gores Island and Tresor De Bontee, as the former is race-fit, while the latter goes well fresh, and it it hard to separate them on form.
At Sedgefield, we have two from the alert list running.
In the 2:20pm, 2m3f novice handicap chase there is Friendly Royal who looked very accomplished when winning his chase debut last month. He won that race in a canter, and I think his OR106 rating today is a gift, as he should on OR120 and carrying top-weight in this race. Yes, Nautical Twilight ran well in his debut chase but he didn't win and he's conceding 4lb to Friendly Royal. Best odds on Friendly Royal are 9/4 but they are going fast - when I started the blog he was 3/1. As he may be only 2/1 at best when you read this blog, I cannot recommend a "value" wager (as odds will be under the cut-off of 9/4) but this horse should win.
The other horse from the alert list is Cloudy Joker in the 2m3f, Class 3 handicap chase at 2:50pm at Sedgefield. He missed the entire 2014-15 season, and has been coaxed back to fitness over hurdles. That sphere is not his forte, chasing is - and if he is anywhere near the form of his novice season then he will be tough to beat today, as OR125 is very fair considering he won 3 of his 4 chase starts in that novice season. The trip and ground at Sedgefield will be just about perfect for him, and odds of 13/2 look reasonable for an eachway wager with 8-runners making it 5th odds a place 1, 2, 3.
Selection
Sedgefield 2:50 CLOUDY JOKER, £5 eachway @ 13/2 (available generally, 5th odds a place 1, 2, 3)
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