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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday, 16 August 2010

Do not ignore the place-only markets

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of last week’s racing
Not a great week for the blog following the stupendous performance of the week before that (23pts profit from 11 points staked, 3 winners from 6 selections), and 5pts lost. Even so, a good day for the blog on Saturday despite not providing a “solid” selection, as SHAKESPEAREAN ran out a good winner @ 3/1, having led all the way. I can never quite understand Betfair sometimes as Shakespearean only had the fav - Ouqba - to fear, yet the Betfair place-only odds were 1.95 for Shakespearean to be placed 1-2-3 only 15 mins before the off! Given the lack of opposition (just 7 went to post), the place-only odds should have been less-than 1.20.

Do not ignore the place-only markets; there is sometimes huge value available on these markets as the vast majority of punters do not understand how to value the odds for a place.

Some great training performances last week, with Saeed bin Suroor hitting top-form with 8 winners from 20 runners in the 7-days (4 winners on Saturday from 10 runners). John Gosden also sent out 8 winners but from 21 runners in the 7-days. Ed Dunlop sent out 4 winners from just 9 runners, and Mick Jarvis maintained his consistent high standards with 3 winners from 8 runners.

Today’s Racing Selections
There are 2 afternoon meetings on the AW at Kempton and Wolverhampton, and 2 evening meetings on the turf at Windsor and Yarmouth. The Kempton meeting features a class 2 handicap over 7f that looks made for THE CONFESSOR. He won’t have things all his own way early on as there are a couple of other front-runners, but he’s out of stall 2 and he has easily the best speed-rating and the 6lb penalty for his win last week does not look anywhere near enough to stop him.

At Wolverhampton, a previous blog selection Glenridding has won twice since then and he may run well again today. But I thought he was beaten (when my selection) as he did not like sharing the lead and he won’t have things his own way today either. As such, I’m more inclined for another front-runner to come good in KIPCHAK who has won over a mile and won’t be lacking stamina for a battle. The odds of 12/1 suggest that “place-only” is the way to go as if Mountain Cat is in the mood today he’ll be hard to stop winning. There are a few with winning chances, including Smalljohn, but KIPCHACK place-only (should be able to get 3.20+) as if he’s disputing the lead at the furlong pole he should hit 1.40 in-running and you can lay-off your stake.

Tonight at Windsor, there’s an interesting fillies handicap at 7:10 and Sir Michael Stoute’s CABAL looks to hold the key. Seems to handle soft going and appears genuine enough, there is a lack of finishing pace in this race and she can grind out a win having a useful 3lb claimer riding.

Don’t bother with the meeting at Yarmouth. As such, there is no blog selection today mainly as the rain about the country can cause havoc with the going, but I would not put anyone off having wagers at small stakes on the 3 horses named above (THE CONFESSOR, KIPCHAK, and CABAL), especially on the place-only markets.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
No new name for the list today.

I’m about to embark on an analysis of the trainers over the jumps to try and give you a few pointers of what to expect and where they best of them will be placing the better horses and looking for winners. For instance, Peter Bowen has had 16 winners at Aintree from 78 runners in the past 6 season; but 11 of those winners have come over hurdles from just 36 runners (31% strike-rate) returning a huge profit of £82.63 to a £1 level stake; ie those 11 winners started at average odds of 10/1 so they were not the form-book selections and you are unlikely to have found them by any other means other than trainer-form. There will be more like this to come in the next few weeks as we begin the run-up to the jumps season.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. Just been reading some of the blogs and forgot to mention in mine the superb write-up given by SPRINTERSTOGO (see link on my blog-list) for the Great St Wilfred at Ripon on Saturday. Not only was the winner DAMIKA named as the best value in the race - it was named on Thursday after the draw! Brilliant.

  2. just wanted to say excellent blogging and great sites gents - keep up the good work