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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday, 3 August 2010

Sea Wall to lead from the front

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
James Given made it nil wins from 30 runners at Carlisle when AJAAFA ran unplaced @ 8/1. At Windsor, BITTER FORTUNE was disappointing for Noseda – clearly the horse is slow.
Other “trainers-in-form” were Barry Hills (8w:8p:38r = 42.1%) who sent out 3 runners and had 2 winners. Mick Jarvis (4w:5p:17r = 52.9%) sent out 2 runners and had a winner @ 11/4.
Geoff Harker sent out 2 winners from just 2 runners yesterday, making it 3 winners from his last 6 runners – he has 3 out at Catterick this afternoon.
Richard Hannon keeps rolling out the winners; he had a winner and 4 placed from just 6 runners yesterday, he sends 3 to Chepstow today.

Today’s Racing Selections
A couple of awful flat (turf) meetings at Chepstow and Catterick which should both be avoided.
The best racing may well be the jumps meeting at Ffos Las. Apart from reviewing my Chasers & Hurdlers list to follow, I’m not making selections over the jumps, but the Class 3 chase at 7:45 looks very interesting.
I had a good win (paid for Xmas) with Quattrocento here at Ffos Las on 21-Dec in a 3-mile chase. I reckoned he didn’t like it too soft then as he’d won on good-to-firm, and so it proved as he’s not won since (nor run particularly well) on soft and his rating has dropped back to his last winning mark of OR117. He has not run since April tho’ and he may need this run as he usually does. I am surprised that McCoy is not on Sea Wall as I reckon this horse has a great chance even tho’ raised 6lb for his LTO win. With McCoy taking the ride on the other O’Neill stable entry – Whataboutya – hoping to see a return to his very good Irish form of 2007, I reckon it may be best to take these all on with BALLYCARNEY. His 2nd to Putney Bridge was a cracking run (gave him 8lb then and would now receive 14lb – so no wonder he was btn 12 lengths). He didn’t stay 28f LTO (race won by stablemate Ouzbeck) so this return to 3-mile will suit him. He will handle the going (has won on good-to-firm) and the track should suit. Unfortunately, the value has gone as he’s just 3/1 for this (from 9/2). Even so, I think he is the most likely winner so if you can get 4/1 or more then grab it. With 8 runners there are 3 places win on, and at the odds Sea Wall @ 15/2 looks the value. He should be in the 1st-3 (I’d rate him a 2.10 place chance) and may well nick the race from the front.

No blog selection, but I will have a personal interest in SEA WALL tonight on the place-only market, and if I can get 4/1 about BALLYCARNEY then I'll have a wager on him too.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
No new horse for the list today. I have a few on the probable list, but they need some more form study. But it’s a lovely day here, so I’m off to the seafront at Hove with my 7yo son.
Already on the list:
KALELLSHAN, 7yo chaser trained by C Byrnes
QHILIMAR, 6yo chaser trained by A E JONES
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON

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  1. Can't really understand it as SEA WALL is 10/1 with Vic Chandler (only 13/2 with Boylesports). Have checked the form again and I reckon he should be no more than 5/1, maybe 9/2. These odds suggest that a "bet-to-lay" opportunity exists with the front-runner on the "win" market.