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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday, 19 August 2010

Ebor meeting at York - Day 3

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
Willie Haggas sent 2 runners to Folkestone, including the blog selection CLOUDS END and both were well beaten. I was particularly disappointed by CLOUDS END as he had everything in his favour. At the same meeting, Cumani’s only runner ISOBAR met one that was too good for him, but if he can’t win off OR62 then there is no hope. At York, John Dunlop’s TIMES UP ran extremely well, in the circumstances, to be 4th. Jockey Jamie Spencer had him last of the 16 entering the straight, and he tried to find a run up the stands rail but was ‘chopped’ by the eventual 2nd Dazzling Light. He recovered from that to come with a rattle, but too late. He is certainly one to consider NTO. Spencer employed the same tactics and enjoyed success on Gordon Elliot’s Dirar in winning the Ebor. For me, the going alongside the stands rail appears the fastest. Something to note from the Ebor was that Sir Mark Prescott’s FORTUNI (mentioned on the blog) was tracking the fancied Overturn, but when that one “stopped” abruptly 3f-out, he badly impeded FORTUNI who was pushed into the far-rail while the rest of the field moved over to the near-side. He tried to run alone along the far rail but, on the slower ground there, stood no chance. He can win NTO. John Dunlop’s other entry, AKMAL, tried to make it a true stamina test from the front but wasn’t able to lead them all the way and faded when beaten.
The only success for the blog came from following Adrian Nicholls in non-handicaps; his win on SILAAH at Carlisle (mentioned on the blog) made it 33 winners from 103 non-handicaps this season (compared with just 13 wins in 142 handicaps); that’s a strike-rate of 32%. And this rate of success in non-handicaps goes back over the past 3 seasons!

Don’t forget the jumps! Paul Nicholls (who needs no introduction) sent out another winner yesterday @ 2/1 making it 5 wins from his last 6 runners in the past 14-days, and 9 wins from 16 since 1st July. He works hard during the winter, so if he sends one out during the summer months then he’s not doing it for a day out, is he?

Today’s Racing Selections
It’s day 3 of the Ebor meeting at York, and I’m going to leave alone the opening two 2yo races as the class 2 handicap over a mile at 2:50 looks a juicy proposition. Luck in running will play a part in this as they will no doubt all spread across the track for the final half-mile, and then it’s a cavalry charge to the finish. Luca Cumani’s only runner today Acrostic, was 3rd in this last year and with Fallon aboard and a fair draw (10) has a decent chance. I’ve previously tipped here Capponi when he won over C&D, but his draw (20) looks tough and he’ll need to be well ahead of the handicapper to succeed here from that draw. With 20 starters, it’s always worth taking a longshot and there are 2 that look worthy of an ew punt; LIGHT FROM MARS and BALCARCE NOV. LIGHT FROM MARS is a course winner and was 3rd in the Bunbury Cup and despite being thought best at 7f, he has won 3 of his 4 races at a mile and at 20/1 he looks fair value for a place. BALCARCE NOV is local York trainer Tom Tate’s only runner today. He was a close 3rd in the Hambleton over C&D (with Acrostic in 4th) and that is top class form. He was then outclassed by Rio De La Plata (no disgrace in that) and he hates Ascot so ignore his run in the Royal Hunt Cup. At 16/1 he will give you a good run for your money and Jamie Spencer is in tip-top form here.
The journalists keep knocking SNOW FAIRY and she keeps on winning, and they are doing it again today and 7/2 as I write looks to me to say “game on” for the Yorkshire Oaks.

York 2:50 LIGHT FROM MARS, ½pt each-way @ 20/1
York 2:50 BALCARCE NOV, ½pt each-way @ 16/1
York 3:25 SNOW FAIRY, 2pts win @ 7/2
Total = 4pts staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
No new entry for the list today.

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1 comment:

  1. Was right about ACROSTIC, only reason I didn't put it up as an ew selection was I thought the odds were too short. BALCARCE NOV certainly gave us a run for our money, and I managed to not only lay-off my stake on the exchanges but make a small profit with him. LIGHT FROM MARS can consider himself unlucky as he was boxed in (behind Balcarce Nov) and made rapid headway when he saw daylight but I think came 5th.