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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday, 4 August 2010

SEA WALL romps in @ 9/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
What a stonking result for the blog with SEA WALL taking the race @ 9/1 (advised on this blog @ 10/1). As I said in my comment at 6pm, SEA WALL was more like a 9/2 chance and was virtually guaranteed to be placed. Ballycarney ran a stinker and may be in need of a break. It was a bad jumping error that took SEA WALL’s stablemate Whataboutya out of the race; at that point Whataboutya looked like winning and he’s the one to take from the race as his Irish form from 2007 is well above this class.
I also told you that trainer Geoff Harker was bang in form, and from the 3 he sent to Catterick he had 2 winners @ 13/8 and 1/2. All-in-all, a great day for the blog. If you want honest racing information backed by form at the track and intuition this is the place to find it.
Also yesterday, trainer Ron Harris sent out 2 winners to make it 3 wins from his last 5 runners, and when you consider his 2 losers were sent off at 66/1 and 40/1 and his winners were at odds of 4/1 (twice) and 7/1, it’s worth taking an interest in his runners likely to start at odds below 10/1 in the next 14-days.

Today’s Racing Selections
There’s a meeting at my local track at Brighton. Regular readers will know it’s not my favourite track as it can make many a horse unbalanced and so the form is unpredictable. There is a good handicap here today tho’, the Brighton Mile at 3:30. Plenty of competition for this Class 4 race worth £8,000 to the winner and Fallon is an eye-catching jockey booking for Mark Johnston’s only runner at Brighton, Licence to Till. You have to strongly consider the Jenny Fielden runner Ocean Countess who has won 4 from 8 starts here and never finished outside the 1st-3. Do not ignore the chance of Roger Charlton's CHEAM FOREVER a C&D winner here. Charlton is 7 winners from 12 runners (excluding 2yo's) at Brighton and @ 9/1 he looks the value wager having a great draw (3) with the main dangers drawn wide.

At Kempton, there’s a decent meeting on the AW but as many of the races are well contested there are no standout selections. Well worth taking an interest in tho’, especially the 3yo+ maiden over a mile at 7:35 which could throw-up some decent handicappers in time. Mick Jarvis has only 1 runner today; NADDWAH in the 8:35.

At Newcastle, Jeremy Noseda sends just MUFTI 245 miles for the 4:20. He’s found a weak maiden here and this half-brother to a Grade 2 winning filly in the US may be too good for these. Noseda enjoys regular winners at Brighton, but sends none there today – it may be a hint.

Pontefract, a course I like, has a class 2 handicap over 12f today that looks ripe for an upset. I was initially drawn to Saeed bin Suroor’s only runner today Highland Glen who has a lot of talent but is a tricky horse to get right. The ground could well be too quick for some of these (Ella, Red Cadeaux) but if PRECISION BREAK starts then he could have the race set-up for him by the strong pace off the Johnston trio. Paul Cole is in rare form and this runner comes a long way for this. He needed his run last week – his first since Sept – and he can pick off the leaders close home.

Nothing of interest at Yarmouth other than Barney Curley sends a couple including the winner of a Listed race in Germany Allanit who has dropped 25lbs since arriving here in 2008 and runs off OR75. A Listed race winner in a class 5 handicap at Yarmouth; it can only be done by Curley! Will his money be going down?

Pontefract 3:40 PRECISION BREAK, 1pt win @ 7/1
Pontefract 3:40 PRECISION BREAK @ 7/1, and
Brighton 3:30 CHEAM FOREVER @ 9/1, ½pt each-way double
Total = 2pts staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE, 7yo chaser trained by J Howard Johnson

There may be some thoughts that we may have missed the boat with PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE after his class 2 chase win at Haydock on 3rd April off OR132 after which he was raised to OR140. However, his half-brother Miko De Beauchene improved 18lb in his 7yo-8yo season winning the Welsh National and the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup at Haydock, so he may yet have more improvement to come. This is especially so as PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE has only had 6 chase runs. He has only finished outside the 1st-3 once in those 6 chase runs, when unplaced behind Our Vic in the Peter Marsh at Haydock – a race for which he started fav. As a result of that, it’s considered he didn’t stay the 3-mile-plus trip, but that was a very competitive race and a blunder at the 5th last fence was something he was unable to recover from in that top company. He more than showed he stayed the trip in the race before that at Carlisle, his first since the previous January, when he was 2nd to Huka Lodge. He’s never run on going better than soft; he handles heavy very well. I think we will see a much improved horse next season, one who is possibly very well handicapped if he can match his half-brothers form – and there is no reason why he should not. He has plenty of speed and will be hard to beat at any trip over 21f next season, and can be supported 1st-time-out. He’s likely to start at decent odds if that next race is over 3-miles, a trip that’s considered beyond him.

Already on the list:
KALELLSHAN, 7yo chaser trained by C Byrnes
QHILIMAR, 6yo chaser trained by A E JONES
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON

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