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Tuesday, 10 August 2010

ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE to score at Lingfield

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
My thoughts on yesterday’s meeting on the AW at Southwell were correct – not a single fav won, it was a great afternoon for the layers. The blog selection HIGH ROLLING was 3rd behind the 16/1 winner and 20/1 runner-up; both of whom ran well above their recent form levels. Not a great result as HIGH ROLLING did everything right and beat all known dangers, at least being an eachway wager at odds of 9/2 meant no stake money lost.
Jeremy Noseda’s only runner LOST IN THE MOMENT (highlighted in the blog) won @ 4/6.
But Paul Cole’s only runner Strategic Mission didn’t. As was mentioned on the blog, the three 3yo’s dominated this race, heading the betting and filling the 1st-3 places.

Today’s Racing Selections
Not a bad day’s racing ahead. The meeting on the AW at Lingfield is well supported and features some competitive races, notably the class 4 handicap over 7f at 4:00. Mishrif (drawn 9) will make the early pace, and should set the race up for a finisher (if not making all, as he did last time he ran here), even so at 8/1 he looks place value as there are 2 non-runners leaving 8 going to post. My Gacho is a rogue, Yankee Storm has never run well at Lingfield (in 5 starts) and the others look outclassed apart from Jeremy Noseda’s only runner today ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE. He’s a C&D winner and ran well at Newmarket in a hot class 4 handicap in June (plenty of winners have come out of that race), but probably found the going to quick LTO, so a return to this easier surface should suit. Blinkers 1st time will keep his mind on the job. At 9/2, he’s looking very tempting. Don’t ignore Mishrif in the place-only market on the exchanges; he’s worth taking 2.40+ about.

There are a couple of interesting meetings this evening at Ffos Las and Nottingham and if I consider something of value there, then I will return with a comment at 5pm.

Lingfield 4:00, ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE, ½pt each-way & 1pt win @ 9/2
Total = 2pts staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
FREE WORLD, 6yo chaser trained by Paul NICHOLLS

With a disappointing Festival by Paul Nicholls high standards, there are probably some well-handicapped horses in the stable at Ditcheat and this is my idea of one of them. He may not have won last season, but he put up some fine performances in defeat if you ignore his first run after an 8-month break and his last run at the Festival when he was unplaced (for the first time and only time in 9 chase runs) behind Pigeon Island when the race was not run to suit his hold-up tactics. It was when 2nd to French Opera on 12-Dec at Cheltenham that is the most taking result. He had top-weight that day with the impossible task of giving French Opera (OR147) 2lb which he nearly succeeded in doing. Since then, French Opera has won off OR158 and is almost certainly OR160+ and a likely contender for the Champion Chase or Ryanair at the 2011 Festival. This puts the current mark of OR152 for FREE WORLD into context and suggests he could be 8lb well-in, if not more (he is, after all, only a 6yo). Next time out he was 3rd to Kalahari King and, in hindsight, he was never going to beat him that day at the weights (FREE WORLD received just 5lb); he was also the youngest of the 15 runners in that race. He never really got into his race at Festival, but then with no winner of the Johnny Henderson Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (over 2m ½f) rated OR134+ since 1999 (or carrying 10st 11lb+) history was against him with 11st 11lb off OR153. His jumping could be a bit sticky last season but I expect he’s been well-schooled since; as such I would oppose him at your peril. He comes to hand early and can be supported first time out. Good-to-Soft suits best and he stays an extended 2-mile, I would not be surprised if he had the stamina to stay up to 20f. Despite horse’s rated in between OR148 – OR160 being difficult to place to win, I believe FREE WORLD will end the season on OR165+ and victory in a top handicap beckons this autumn.

Already on the list:
KALELLSHAN, 7yo chaser trained by C BYRNES
QHILIMAR, 6yo chaser trained by A E JONES
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON

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1 comment:

  1. That was an awful run from ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE who had no pace at all when it mattered. I've taken another look at evening racing and I am giving it a miss. I've added a few new pages to the blog, please check them out.