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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday, 25 August 2010

The saint - Simon TEMPLER

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
The favourite backers got it right in all 3 races that I looked at yesterday with Hamloola winning @ 1/2; Wake Up Call winning @ 13/8 and Senate winning @ 2/1; and what’s more, they all won their races very easily. Sometimes it pays not to oppose the market. The one horse that I thought had the best chance of causing an upset – ELLA – threatened about 3f out (touched 2.50 in-running) but was soon seen-off by the winner. I said earlier in the week about not ignoring the place-only market on Betfair, and yesterday I received an email from the excellent blog writer Daniel Kelly (the nhcblogspot.com – see adjacent link) who spotted ALL ANNALENA in this race who he thought was a great ew chance in this 8-runner race (there were 4 non-runners). Although starting at 33/1, ALL ANNALENA paid 12.80 on the place-only market! At quarter-odds, 33/1 represents a return of £46.25 for a £5.00 ew bet (£10 staked); that’s equivalent to odds of 7/2. Had that £10 been staked on the place-only market (and, being realistic, 33/1 winners do not come along every day) the return would have been £128.00 less 5% commission; or £121.60, equivalent to odds of 11/1. Admittedly, this was a particular situation, but there’s value to be had on the place-only markets every day – do not ignore them.

As an aside, I have a trawl through the blogsites and websites every week, and I came across this via the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) website – it’s a request to find new faces to promote horse-racing via http://www.lovetheraces.com/terms.php.

Today’s Racing Selections
Another ordinary day’s racing. There are 3 meetings on the flat this afternoon at Ayr, Catterick and Brighton. There is nothing at Ayr that interests me, tho’ Willie Haggas sends a solitary 2yo for the opener, Red Riverman.
At Catterick, there are 5 low-grade handicaps and they all looks wide-open. With races like this it can all hang on which horse is feeling like running best on the day and form-study does not really count for much. No thanks!
Despite Brighton being my local “flat” track, it’s not one that I like as it can make a horse unbalanced – even track specialists. It’s not often that Sir Michael Stoute sends one here and today he has two running for him and both ridden by Fallon. (Ryan Moore still absent thru’ injury). The 2yo Profondo Rosso is likely to be a lot better than OR90 as a 3yo and as such should prove good enough for this. It’s his other runner in the class 3 handicap at 4:00 MR IRONS who looks the most interesting, tho’ it looks like we’ve missed the boat on the value as he’s just 5/2 (from 7/2) now. Fallon got the best out of him LTO and he should do the biz again in this. The final 2 races are both 5-runner affairs and I’m not a fan of races with a few runners as they tend to depend on jockey tactics – but Mujood loves these sort of races where he can dominate a small field, and he can prove dangerous as the rank outsider in the 4:30.

There is a cracking class 2 handicap chase at Ffos Las at 7:20 tonight where a previous blog selection (and winner) Sea Wall runs again, but I fear this time he’ll not win. The 2009 fav for the Thyestes Chase in Ireland Hoopy looks primed for a big run after winning over hurdles LTO, as is Lyes Green who is on the comeback trail from injury. I don’t know what to make of Grand Slam Hero after pulling-up LTO, so he needs to make amends. Nostringsattached was 2nd in this race last year off OR136, so down to OR128 today makes him of interest – but last year he was in good form and looking for a hat-trick of wins. Gordon Elliot, who won the race last year, clearly wants to win it again, with 3 entries; but one horse who never seems to run a bad race and comes here his trainers only runner today is TEMPLER. He was rated OR134 after winning a C2 chase off OR130 at Stratford in May 09, so running today off OR127 when we know he’s in good form seems a good omen. He went hunter-chasing in the Spring mainly to get his confidence back, and it seems to have worked judged by his close-up 5th in the Summer National LTO. That was a hard race, but he’s been given plenty of time to recover and he’ll get the strong pace he loves in this race (from Sea Wall and others) and he can stay on strongest of all. Odds of 10/1 look fair.

Ffos Las 7:20 TEMPLER, 1pt e/w @ 10/1

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
There are no new names on today’s list, but for new readers of the blog, here is a complete list of those described so far. They are:-

1) ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo chaser trained by Chris GORDON
2) CESIUM, 5yo chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
3) EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
4) PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON
5) QHILIMAR, 6yo chaser trained by A E JONES
6) KALELLSHAN, 7yo chaser trained by C Byrnes
7) FREE WORLD, 6yo chaser trained by Paul NICHOLLS
8) GENTLE RANGER, 8yo chaser trained by David PIPE
9) GOING WRONG, 7yo hurdler (novice chaser) trained by Ferdy MURPHY
10) MIDNIGHT HAZE, 8yo chaser trained by Kim BAILEY
11) MONT PRESENT, 6yo chaser trained by Phil HOBBS
12) PICKAMUS, 7yo chaser trained by Henry DALY
13) ZANIR, 6yo hurdler trained by Tom GEORGE

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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