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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 9 February 2013

2nd @ 66/1 - you'll find no fav's tipped here!

A great result for the blog yesterday which, with a bit of luck, may have been an almighty result. CIRCUS OF DREAMS, advised at ¼pt eachway, stayed –on strong to take 2nd place at 66/1 in the 3-mile handicap chase. He ran exactly as I expected, altho’ his jumping was a bit suspect and had he not crashed thru’ the fence 5-out and come to a virtual stop then I reckon he may well have won. The horse picked himself up from that bad mistake and flew the next fence. I was a bit miffed as I had £10 on at an average of 165 (£5 @ 160, and £5 @ 170) with Betfair, plus another £5 @ 18.0 on the place-only market. Not a bad result in the end for me, but I would have been a lot happier with a win! That result gave the blog a profit on the day of 2.50pt profit on the day as the other selection didn’t win.

You don’t get favorites selected on this blog, so if you are looking to put your hard-earned cash on some short-priced hyped-up rumour from the bar near the stables then you are in the wrong place. My selections are based on form, form, and more form. They’ve done the business on the track and, in my opinion, they are favourably treated and the market has got it wrong. Simple. They don’t all win, or make a fair return, but these are not whispers but backed-up with genuine opinion – mine!

I am putting the final touches to my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin and I’m hoping to have it ready before next Sunday.

Onto the horseracing for today, and we have some great racing to get stuck into. At Newbury, the Denman Chase at 2:25 will answer a few questions of the likes of The Giant Bolster, Menorah, and Weird Al. I think the soft ground won’t be a help to The Giant Bolster and so I reckon Menorah should be the 2nd-fav to the odds-on Silviniaco Conti. If he stays this trip, and there is no reason he won’t as he won well over 2m5f LTO on heavy, then he has the class to push the fav. Weird Al will love the ground (he’s won 3 from 6 on soft) and he will stay this trip too. As such, I’d have him a lot shorter than 20/1. I don’t think Silviniaco Conti is an odds-on chance, so there could be value in both Menorah and Weird Al. Perhaps put those three in 3 x “swingers” on the Tote.

WISHFUL THINKING is the best horse at the weights in the “Super Saturday” Chase at 3:00, but I’m put off by the fact he’s only won once from 8 starts at about 2-mile, and he much better with an extra few furlongs. I feel that my old mate French Opera is not the horse he once was, and both the Nicholls horses – Shooters Wood and Edgardo Sol need to find improvement to take this, altho’ Edgardo Sol needs to find only a few pounds. This is a no bet race for me.

I’m not a fan of these huge handicap hurdles races, but the Betfair Hurdle has a couple that catch my eye.  I think CASH AND GO will end this season a lot higher than OR145 and his 2nd in the Greatwood at Cheltenham is great form. At odds of 9/1, there is not too much value in him, tho’  Bet365 and Paddy Power pay 5-places to ¼ odds, and he’s worth a small eachway wager. He lost his rider Barry Geraghty LTO in the Ladbroke Hurdle in December and if you look back to my blog of that day, I tipped PRINCETON PLAINS at eachway. That horse ran a cracker and but for taking a wide line into the straight and losing a few lengths in the process, he would have been possibly 3rd that day. Even so, he was an honourable 6th  and yet he's been dropped 1lb by the handicapper to OR138. He’s also 40/1 with Bet365 and a few others. He’s worth a small eachway wager.

Over in Ireland today, it’s a big day with both the Hennessey Gold Cup and the Dr PJ Moriarty (Novice) Chase. The Hennessey, especially, could be a cracker of a race and have a huge influence on the Cheltenham Gold Cup as whatever wins this race will be – or should be – the fav for that race given that the current fav Bobs Worth may go to Cheltenham without a prep run and isn’t the best chaser on ratings anyway. Watch and learn.

Nothing takes my interest at Uttoxeter, but Warwick has a great meeting. Unfortunately, as I write, there is snow falling at the track and an inspection is planned for 11:00am. If racing does go ahead then I’ll be looking favourably on DRUMSHAMBO in the 2:05.

Newbury 3:35, CASH AND GO, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 - ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5 BOG)
Newbury 3:35, PRINCETON PLAINS, ½pt eachway @ 40/1 (Bet365 - ¼ odds 1,2,3,4,5 BOG)
Total = 2pts staked

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  1. Your opinion that Weird Al will love the soft ground is totally wrong.

  2. Because he needs good ground. people assume because he's won on soft he acts on it.


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