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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 23 February 2013

Rolling Aces to play his hand

Not a great day at the office yesterday as all 3 selections ran below expectations, and 3pts were lost. Spanish Arch at Sandown was perhaps the first indication that those horses that plug on thru’ soft/heavy ground can’t cope when the ground dries as they have not change of gear. He ran a solid race but may need to step up to 2m6f+ on good-to-soft or quicker. Ringa Bay was given a poor ride by his amateur rider, Mr York, whose style left something to be desired. As for Charingworth, the wrong tactics were employed as the front-3 went off very quick and the eventual winner had 20-lb in-hand. Charingworth would never have won but, had he been closer to the pace, he probably would’ve stayed on for a place.

Onto today, and Newcastle is abandoned due to snow, so just the meetings at Kempton and Chepstow. First Chepstow, as I think I’ve found a decent wager in the 3:20 there. Venetia Williams has not been sending out the winners in the past 2-weeks so she’s reigned in her entries this weekend and has just 2 running at Chepstow, including RENARD. This horse never runs a bad race, loves 2-mile chasing, and the good-to-soft ground will suit. The horse hated the heavy ground LTO, but the time before that he ran a cracker at Newbury to be 3rd when meeting a handicap blot in Ulck Du Lin. A course and distance winner, odds of 7/1 are far too generous in a race where it looks like only the fav Dunowen Point  is the danger.

At Kempton, the big race is the Racing Plus Chase and I think ROLLING ACES at 9/2 is too big. I’ve been a supporter of Wyck Hil since he won his 2nd-chase as a novice and he’s won me good money, but he looks weighted-up to his rating on OR142. He may be worth a few more pounds, but he is unlikely to top 150. ROLLING ACES on the other hand looks a star in the making, and his win at Newbury in December (I tipped him that day) looks top-form now. He is on the fringes of being a Gold Cup horse and if he continues to improve he’ll be OR160 this time next year, if not sooner.

Chepstow 3:20, RENARD, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (William Hill, 5th odds a place 1,2,3 BOG)
Kempton 3:50, ROLLING ACES, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James, BOG)
Total = 2pts staked

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