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There is some great jump racing today with meetings at Kempton, Newcastle and Che[pstow.
The feature race at Newcastle is the 4-mile 1-furlong Eider Chase (handicap) and it's being run on heavy ground - it will be gruelling. You have to side with a horse that has won before on similar going, preferably more than once. This race will probably go to the last horse standing, do not expect more than a handful of finishers from the 16 starters. As such, I'd be happy enough to side with a plodder preferably aged 9yo or older as those horses will have the experience to meet the conditions. There is a gamble going on Wyck Hill this morning 10/1 from 14/1) but I think it's misplaced as the horse has not been running well since winning at Ascot last season. I've followed this horse for a long time, since Nov '11, and he does not strike me as a marathon horse. My idea of the winner is RELAX trained by Venetia Williams and coming into the race in top form. A lover of heavy ground, he'll be there till the end and 5lb claimer Callum Whillans is worth more than his claim. There are a lot of claimer jockeys in this race, so Whillans will not be at a disadvantage. Odds of 10/1 (Stan James & Bet Victor) look fair value.
At Kempton, there is a quality race meeting. In the opener, I like Ballinvarrig and his only rival looks to be Present View. They should dominate the race. I cannot settle on a selection in the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle which is a big pointer for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Next on the card, the Pendil Novices Chase looks a cracker, and if Balder Succes wins (as he should) well then he'll go to the Festival well fancied for the "Arkle".
At Kempton at 3:50 we have the 3-mile Betbright Chase (handicap), which looks very competitive. I do not think 3-mile will suit the fav Bury Parade who has shown great form over 20-21f on soft/heavy ground. Paul Nicholls also sends Grandioso who was 2nd to Bury Parade LTO, and Grandioso looks the pick of these at the weights be he too has stamina doubts for 3-mile. Ardkilly Witness looks held by the handicapper, as does Standing Ovation. I will be surprised if Planet Of Sound can repeat his run of LTO as consistency is not his best asset. Alan King also has a couple of runners, and while I reckon 3-mile is too much for Bless The Wings, it is perfect for MIDNIGHT APPEAL. Why this horse is at 16/1 with Bet Victor is beyond me. The horse has done the blog proud this season, winning at 25/1 on his seasonal debut over 3-mile on heavy. His recent run when 2nd at Kempton earlier this month will mean he is race-fit today and I cannot see him finishing outside the 1st-3. Usual jockey Wayne Hutchinson goes for Bless The Wings, and I can see why as he has perhaps the most potential, but over a shorter trip than today. MIDNIGHT APPEAL has to be an eachway wager in this competitive race.
Kempton 3:50 MIDNIGHT APPEAL, £5 eachway @ 16/1 (Bet Victor)
Newcastle 2:55 RELAX, £5 eachway & £5 win @ 10/1 (Bet Victor, Coral, Stan James, William Hill)
Total Staked = £25
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Saturday, 22 February 2014
Big day at Kempton
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Not a great day for the selections, but if you read the blog you'd have done well.ReplyDelete
In the opener at Kempton I did write that the race would be dominated by Ballinvarrig and Present View and they finished 1st & 2nd, the Exacta paying £10.50. And I also wrote that Balder Succes should win and he did - but I expected his SP to be more like 6/4 than 9/4 and I only recommend wagers when the odds are 9/4 or larger.
RELAX did not run well as his claimer did not give him a good ride by setting too fast a pace. As for MIDNIGHT APPEAL he looked like winning but perhaps hit the front too soon as he faded close to home. He made some early jumping errors and his odds in-running touched 70 but when he hit the front at 3-out his odds were <2.00 - for in-running punters he made plenty of profit.
As we were on at 16/1 it was gutting not to have him placed and he missed out on 3rd by just a neck.