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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 1 February 2014

Heavy going today, take it easy

My selection yesterday was not a good one and, on reflection, was a shot in the dark. It looked to have some potential beforehand and for those who back-to-lay there was plenty of opportunity to make a reasonable profit as odds of 28+ were available before the off and the horse traded at under 15 in running.

The weather has had an adverse effect on today’s jump racing with the Sandown card becoming all-chase races as the hurdle course is untraceable. There are other meetings at Ffos Las and Wetherby but, with all 3 tracks racing on very soft or heavy ground, it is a day for caution.

Horse alert runners are:-

The 2:10, Class 2 handicap chase over 2m4f & 110 yards, looks tricky with a couple of interesting types in Ultimate (trainer Brian Ellison has a good record here with chasers especially) and Ice ‘N’ Easy (Charlie Longsdon also has a good record with chasers here).  This trip could be a bit short for Alert list runner No Planning, whose trainer Sue Smith has a great record in this race (won it 3 times since 2007). However, it is not difficult to see ICE ‘N’ EASY winning this tho’ his odds of 2/1 are too short for me to recommend a wager (my cut-off is 9/4).
I’m a bit more interested in the (Grade 2) Class 2 novice chase over 3m1f at 3:20. Just 6 go to post but there looks a fair bit of competition. Of my alert list runners, GREEN FLAG looks the most interesting. He’s shown he can win at 3-mile as a chaser on testing ground already, whereas the fav Shutthefrontdoor is rated on his excellent hurdle for last season. I am more reliant on form that potential and so the odds of 5/2 about GREEN FLAG look fair.

Ffos Las
Horse alert runners are:-

The Welsh Champion Hurdle, a Class 2 limited handicap, is over 2m4f and it looks a cracker of a race. If Saphir Du Rheu can win this off OR158 giving 11lb to Whisper and 20lb to Home Run then he should be given a late-entry into the Champion Hurdle (if that is possible).  As such, I feel the winner will come from the latter pair. If there were 8 runners then I’d be on Home Run for a place but I doubt that I’d get the current 20/1 for an eachway wager.  WHISPER has to be the most likely winner and, to be fair, odds of 9/4 are reasonable.
For the West Wales National (why can’t it be called a “marathon”) over 3m4f, I cannot really recommend alert runner Emperor’s Choice as he’s not been running well this season and I’d like to see a change in his form as he has clear ability within him. He’s favourite today due to the tremendous form of his trainer Venetia Williams, and that means there is value in the market. That value could be De La Bech who had Mountainous behind him when winning at Chepstow in December, and now meets him on 8lb better terms. De La Bech loves heavy ground and that may be the key to him as he’s not gone well when tackling further than 3-miles before.

Horse alert runners are:-

The meeting at Sandown is a bit of a mish-mash due to the ground making the hurdle course un-raceable. I’m not sure about Spanish Arch on this ground but I cannot split market leaders Saroque and Toby Lerone.
The next on the card looks a very interesting race. The 2-miles at Sandown is one of the most spectacular on the jumping circuit and today’s heavy ground adds another dimension. I’m not sure about Desert Cry on heavy ground, and Filbert needs 2m4f. The horses that stand out for me are Eastlake and Kumbeshwar, tho’ the latter did not run well last weekend. That said, Kumbeshwar comes back to his optimum 2-mile trip today, but there is still that questionmark. As such, I’m siding more with EASTLAKE who has no fear of heavy ground around Sandown as he was a C&D winner on similar ground last season. There is also a case for Rebel Rebellion in this race as he is also a C&D winner on heavy ground, but he may want 2m4f+ these days. Odds of 13/2 with Bet Victor look very fair to me.

Sandown 1:50 EASTLAKE, £10 @ 13/2 with Bet Victor (best odds guaranteed)
Total = £10 staked

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