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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 26 February 2014

Cue Card misses the Festival

Events are happening on a daily basis now on the run-in to the Cheltenham Festival. Yesterday, it was the turn of last year's hero CUE CARD, who was withdrwn from all Festival engagements due to a pulled back muscle. While missing Cheltenham, it is expected that Cue Card will return to action at Aintree in April.

Last year, Cue Card formed the backbone of my antepost wagers as advised in my Cheltenham Bulletin. Placing wagers antepost is a risky business as you have to balance the prospect of better odds than available on the day with the potential of not getting a run for your money. At least now, bookie Bet365 are going "non-runner, no-bet", but do check the odds with other bookies before placing any wagers antepost.

This year's bulletin was made available to donators to the blog last Friday 21st February, and if you want a copy all you have to do is donate at least £10 (the donate button is at the top of this page) and I'll send you an copy via email. As well as the bulletin, donators are also recieving regular email updates and there will be a supplement issued this Friday for all the novice championship races, and there is a planned handicap supplement for the following Friday. There are more than a few Cheltenham advice booklets, one of which has significant sales. My bulletin is my own take on the Festival and one factor that may help you decide whether to have it is - do you want to have a Cheltenham betting guide that has perhaps 15,000 sales, or one with less than 200? Do you want to follow the herd, or take an alternative route?

There are a couple of interesting meetings today at Bangor and Wincanton. Unfortunately, there are no horse alerts from my peronal list running today.  The heavy ground at Bangor has resulted in small fields for all the races there today. With some short-odds fav's in the first-4 races on the card, I'd be looking to oppose them all if in the mood to wager at the track, especially Sir Mangan in the 3-mile handicap hurdle at 3:30. He's not looked a 3-miler to me in his form to date and his lack of stamina could be exposed by some proper stayers in Quel Elite, Jaunty Journey, Alpha Victor and Extreme Impact. They all have form at 3-mile and further on heavy ground, and while none of them have any gears they should all be able to grind out the trip.

The ground is also heavy at Wincanton. The most interesting race is the 3:20, a handicap chase over 2m5f.  Last March, the race-fav Opera Og and Time To Think met at Chepstow over a similar trip and ground. Time To Think prevailed that day, and altho' 8lb worse-off today for a 4-length winning margin, she should win again today over this slightly longer trip which will be in her favour. Opera Og has not won in 4-attempts beyond 2m4f and I cannot see the gelding rectifying that stat today. Of the others, Roll The Dice has been off for 313-days and is probably best on less testing ground than today. Miss Tenacious has raced recently over 2-mile as a chaser (she won twice at 2m6f as a hurdler) and the ground is not in her favour. The odd-one-out is 5yo Vif Argent from David Pipe's stable. He's shown nothing in 4-starts this season tho' he looked interesting when racing in France. Maybe the 1st-time use of binkers will have an affect. Odds of 11/2 for TIME TO THINK (William Hill) look very generous given the questionmarks of her few rivals in this race, and she's the wager.

Wincanton 3:20, TIME TO THINK, £20 win @ 11/2 (William Hill, best odds guaranteed)

1 comment:

  1. Yet another 2nd, and I'm particularly gutted as TIME TO THINK started at an SP of 8/1, so a £10 eachway wager (instead of £20 win) would have returned a £10 profit. I never expected the drift in the odds as I thought TIME TO THINK was more like a 5/2 chance, but the Pipe stable-lads must've been on their horse - Vif Argent, who looked a lot better than his current rating when winning this.