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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 7 February 2014

The early bird...

I've not had much luck with selections in recent weeks with a few close 2nd's, but I'm hoping that will be changing today at Kempton when previous winner for the blog MIDNIGHT APPEAL returns to the track in the 4:10 there this afternoon.
Kempton is the only jumps meeting today, and this race is the only one that catches my eye. MIDNIGHT APPEAL only has 7 rivals with Triangular being the 3/1 fav. I'm well aware of the limitations of Triangular as I reckon the horse is best at up to 2m6f, and we managed to topple him LTO by finding the winner of that race in Ifyousayso. Not only that, but todays heavy ground will not suit this horse either. Emma Lavelle's Court Victory is at 7/2, but it's a leap of faith to put your money on this one. Venetia Williams must always be feared and her Summery Justice is not without a chance, but he's been in the doldrums for some time now. Chartreux was on may alert list this time last year after winning at Wincanton on soft ground last January, but he's not built on that win. I can't really see Shuil Royale or Arbeo being involved in this race, tho Adrenelin Flight may well be better than his 16/1 odds as we know he handles heavy ground.
The odds of 7/1 about MIDNIGHT APPEAL look tremendous, as I'd have him at about 7/2 for this race judging by the opposition. This race should also set him up for the 3-mile chase handicap on Day-1 of the Cheltenham Festival. The only doubt I have about the horse is the record of his trainer Alan King, at Kempton. It is not the best around there but, knowing MIDNIGHT APPEAL goes well fresh, handles heavy ground, stays 3-mile well, and looks underated by the handicapper (he had Mountainous behind him at Bangor in November, and that horse went on to win the Welsh National), he is very hard to ignore.
Kempton 4:10 MIDNIGHT APPEAL, £5 win and £5 eachway @ 7/1 with Stan James or Coral
Total Staked = £15

1 comment:

  1. Beaten under a length into 2nd, with the fav Court Victory pulled-up, and the positive mention for Adrenalin Flight was not in vain as he came in 3rd. The winner was Triangular who has clearly improved under the guidance of "fresher" trainer Harry Fry.
    With returns of £12 from the £15 staked, it is another slight loss of £3 on the day. Our luck must change soon, but we keep knocking at the door.