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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 19 February 2014

Cheltenham Bulletin nearing completion

Saturday was an interesting day for me, not only for the blog but also personally. You see, at about noon, I was involved in a small car accident which left me with a badly cut hand requiring 4-stitches in the middle finger of my right hand.  As such, my ability to type is now hampered, but not curtailed.

The selections made on the blog both ran well, especially CLOUDY TOO at Ascot who belied his odds to come home 2nd (as expected) and landed the advised straight forecast. Unlike some others, I am not going overboard on the performance of the winner of the Ascot Chase CAPTAIN CHRIS who I reckon merely matched his best form. At best, he’s a 168-169 performer, but to run to his best he needs the ground to be soft-heavy. I reckon he also needs a trip of 3-mile or under as, from 5 races at 3-mile or further, he is yet to win and his best performance at 3-mile was chasing home Long Run in the KGVI in December 2012. To be competitive in the Gold Cup next month, he needs to find 10lb of improvement and show that form on ground almost certainly quicker than how he prefers it.

We very nearly managed to get both eachway selections placed on Saturday as NUTS N BOLTS stayed-on well to be 4th, just failing to peg-back the 3rd-placed Loch Ba.

Currently, I’m writing up the essays for the Cheltenham Bulletin as I’ve completed the race-by-race analysis. The year’s Festival looks very open to me and it would not surprise me if there is a fair number of “long-shots” taking the races.  As such, punters will need a lot of help to make the most of the opportunities. I'm still aiming for a release date of Friday evening.

There are a couple of meetings today over the jumps, at Doncaster and Ludlow. At Doncaster, the novice chase at 2:20 looks a cracker even tho’ only 5 runners go to post.  HOLYWELL was by far the best hurdler, and he jumped well enough LTO. He should prevail today, but with decent novices like Victor Hewgo, Top Of The Range, and Firm Order in the field he won’t have things easy.  Not a race to have a large wager on, tho’ if the form works out then it may pay to have a straight forecast on Holywell to beat Firm Order.

The veteran’s handicap chase at 3:35 has had an interesting recent history and, with Cheltenham in mind, it should be watched. Looking thru’ the field of 10-runners, there is not much recent winning form to be found, and I would not want to have a wager on this race until I’d seen the runners in the paddock before the race.

There is nothing much happening at Ludlow tho’, if the ground was soft rather than heavy, I could be tempted to have a speculative wager on Free World in the 3:15. However, the combination of 2-miles and heavy ground could see MOULIN DE LA CROIX run well as in October 2012 (just 16 months ago) this mare ran a couple of decent races over a similar trip and ground and if she’s fit enough to run to something like those performances then she will win this. Odds of 10/1 could look very generous come 3:30pm.

No selections advised but I would not put off anyone who may partake in the suggestions above.

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