Yesterday was a disappointing result for the blog, as I really thought I'd found a winner at very generous odds. The selection TIME TO THINK had the beating of just about every rival on known form and it was only a significant increase in form by the eventual winner - Vif Argent - that stopped her from winning at the generous SP of 8/1. After a 2nd-glance at the winner's formbook, the handicapper was probably on-the-button with an OR130 rating when the horse had his UK debut last October at Cheltenham, and Vif Argent should male a 140+ chaser with time and experience.
There are a couple of meetings today over the jumps, at Ludlow and Taunton, and I've a few runners from my alert list. At Ludlow, in the 2:30 there's CLOUDY JOKER, in the 3:00 DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT, and in the 3:30 BALLYOLIVER.
Cloudy Joker hasn't stopped improving since going chasing, and is unbeaten from 3 chase races this season. He beat today's race-fav Benbens when they met in December (a good novice chase this one, as subsequent winner Bobcatbilly was in 3rd) and he meets Benbens on 7lb worse terms for that wining margin of a "head". Benbens is very lightly race for a 9yo and this will be only his 2nd chase race, but he seems very consistent and should go well today. However, CLOUDY JOKER is only a 6yo and is very much on the upgrade and I'm expecting him to beat Benbens again. Of the others, Zarzal looks harshly on OR130 and Avoca Promise and Midnight Promise have little chance. This race looks a straight match between CLOUDY JOKER and Benbens and, at odds of 9/4, CLOUDY JOKER looks the value.
I've been waiting a long time for the return to the track of DANCINGTILMIDNIGHT, but current best odds of 6/4 are no value at all to me. A race to watch.
The ground is probably still a bit too soft for BALLYOLIVER, even tho' he's slipped 7lb to OR124 from his rating at the start of this season when he ran favourably at Wincanton on good-to-soft. The race-fav is Roalco De Farges, who pulled-up LTO after a break of 23-months after running 2nd to Tidal Bay at Sandown off OR134. He's on OR128 today, so if he's fit enough he'll be hard to beat. The 2nd-fav Brass Tax comes here off a break of 412-days but his rating of OR135 seems stiff considering his form to-date. The trip and ground will not inconvenience C&D winner Firebird Flyer. He beat Ballyoliver here when he won in Nov-12, and meets that rival on 4lb better terms despite having won by over 3-lengths. We know he's in form having chased home Emperor's Choice at Ffos Las LTO, and that form has been upheld since then. At 6/1 (William Hill and Betfred) he looks the value eachway wager. The others in the race either want a shorter trip than 3-mile, or better ground.
At Taunton, horse alert runner MASSENA looks hard to beat in the 3:10 there, but it could prove to be a tricky race to wager in. There seems to be a lot of confidence towards the Paul Nicholls runner Sound Investment, and you cannot discount Lord Of House returning to form in this lower grade of race. It may pay to watch this race.
The review of the novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival is under-way and I'm hoping to get it out to donators by Friday evening, but it may have to be put-back to Sunday afternoon due to the pressures of time.
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Selection
Ludlow 3:30 FIREBIRD FLYER, £10 eachway @ 6/1 (William Hill & Betfred)
All the best from Wayward Lad
Significant gamble on FIREBIRD FLYER resulted in an emphatic win.
ReplyDeleteFollowers of the blog were on at 6/1, the SP for the winner was 7/2.
Profit on the advised £10 ew wager @ 6/1 = £72
Well done, Ian. Consistent and profitable as ever. Thanks for your support and addition of Eric Winner to blogroll. You have pride of place on his too.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work and all the best for Cheltenham.
Jason