Value to be had in Gold Cup market

The 369th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day of racing yesterday and altho’ I was not able to give readers a winner, I was pretty damn close. The big disappointment of the day was DIAMOND HARRY not running in the Charlie Hall chase at Wetherby as he was lame. However, I did write that WEIRD AL was an interesting entry as he also held an entry for the 3-mile h’cap chase at Ascot and so, as such, he was my eachway selection in the race. WEIRD AL looked totally in-command throughout the whole race, for me it was an exemplary performance. First time out last season, WEIRD AL ran a cracker of a race when deat-heating with subsequent Paddy Power winner Little Josh – a performance I rated at 161. My rating of him for yesterday’s race was 160+ and I’ve settled on 163. That therefore puts him within striking distance of LONG RUN who’s winning performance in the Gold Cup I rated at 170 (on a line thru’ the 4th placed What A Friend).

WEIRD AL was one of my Alert List horses last season and my long-term Gold Cup selection. Admittedly, he did run down the field behind Long Run in the Gold Cup after a long lay-off thru’ injury having finished down the field in the Hennessey. He was reported to have bled in the Gold Cup and while that may have seriously affected his form that day, in my opinion he has yet to prove that he’ll stay that trip. If he were my horse, I’d give the Hennessey a miss and go for the either the King George on Boxing Day (for which he is at 14/1), or the Cotswold in January at Cheltenham’s trial meeting. Time For Rupert in 2nd yesterday gave a big boost the the form of the RSA at Cheltenham and the Irish 2nd-season chasers should not be underestimated. WEIRD AL is 20/1 for the Gold Cup and that looks good for an eachway antepost punt (small money) as he loves Cheltenham. But, if he is at 20’s what about the value with the Irish horses? Quito De La Roque is 25’s as is Bostons Angel, and Jessie’s Dream is 40/1.

At Ascot, my selection TAKEROC never looked happy and perhaps this race came too quick for him as he won last weekend at Aintree. Statistically, horses that have run well (ie placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd) and run again within 7-days over both codes (jumps and flat) do well, more so those that have won LTO. As such, I’ll give TAKEROC another chance as he was running respectably off OR148 in the Spring of 2010. Being a winner over 2-mile at Sandown, I don’t think Ascot being a stiff right-handed track, was the reason for his lack-lustre display. His jockey, 7lb claimer Harry Derham won the next race on Brampour with a peach of a ride, and he is a real find and I am sure Paul Nicholls will exploit his 7lb claim efficiently.

My other Ascot selection, MUIRHEAD, was given what I consider was a poor ride in such a hot handicap chase. With 4 to jump he was still well off the pace and altho’ he was hampered at that fence by a faller, it made no difference. With a more positive ride he should recoup the loss, but it was a disappointing result. I also took my eye of the ball in this race as the eventual winner EXMOOR RANGER was on a cracking handicap mark of OR137 considering he ran well off OR145 in the same race last year and ran well off OR144 at the Festival in March. After he was 2nd to Sandown specialist Monkerhostin in Feb 2010 off OR142, he was in my notebook, but before yesterday he had not won since. He can win again.

Today, as much as I am a fan of Qhilimar, he can be upset today by HUMBIE, a 3-parts brother to Denman who got his act together LTO and looks well treated on OR122 in the 2:40 at Carlisle, tho’ the odds are not great.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

DIAMOND HARRY to take the Charlie Hall

The 368th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A cracking days sport beckon with excellent meetings at Ascot and Wetherby.

At Wetherby we have the Charlie Hall chase at 3:20 and if DIAMOND HARRY is in the same form today as he was when fresh for the Hennessey last autumn, then he will take a lot of beating. Odds of 3/1 with both William Hill and Bet365 are too long as he has nothing to prove, whereas the others all have question-marks. Weird Al (one of my horse's to follow last season) is an interesting entry as I thought he'd go for the 3-mile chase at Ascot. He is my idea of an eachway horse if that is your fancy.

At Ascot, I looks near impossible for me to see TAKEROC not winning the 2:30 and his jockey Harry Derham has won 2 from 4 rides this season for Paul Nicholls. TAKEROC in my book should be less than 2/1, so odds of 11/4 with William Hill are generous.

Lastly, the 3-mile chase at Ascot at 3:40 looks a tremendous race and yet I cannot see past MUIRHEAD. He has the class to defy his OR147 rating today as he hacked-up LTO. Odds of 8/1 look extremely generous despite him having to renew rivalry with Bideford Legend. A previous winner for the blog Balthazar King could upset the selection, but I remain confident in MUIRHEAD.

Selection:
Wetherby 3:20, DIAMOND HARRY, 1pt win at 3/1 (William Hill & Bet365)
Ascot 2:30, TAKEROC, 1pt win at 11/4 (William Hill)
Ascot 3:40, MUIRHEAD, 1pt eachway at 8/1 (Bet365)
Total = 4pts staked (all bookmakers named go best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Lost Glory to continue improvement

The 367th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog again yesterday.

There are a couple of jumps meetings today at Fontwell and Stratford. I can’t see much to interest me at Fontwell , but at Stratford we have what looks to be an interesting chase over the extreme trip of 3m4f at 3:20.

Last year’s winner Runshan takes part again but he was allowed an uncontested lead when he won and he won’t be given that today with Ere Alfie and Power Pack Jack in the field. As such, I feel they will cut each other’s throats making too quick a pace as you will need to stamina to burn to win this. One that looks to fit the bill is LOST GLORY. Only 6yo and on the upgrade, he had the speed to win over hurdles 16 days ago, but he looks an out-&-out stayer. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill knows what is needed to win this race having won it twice in the last 7 years. The going and trip will not prove a problem and we know the horse is race-fit and ready to go. Ladbrokes go 5/1 (best odds guaranteed) and I think that is good value in a race like this as I’d have him at more like 100/30.

Selection:
Stratford 3:20, LOST GLORY, 1pt win at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

I have moved my “3-to-Follow” onto the adjacent pages for those who are interested and I will follow the progress of these horses through the season.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

3 to Follow for the Jumps - from Wayward Lad

The 366th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

For the last jumps season 2010-11, I produced a “Horse Alert List” identifying 19 horses to form the basis for an alert list for the season, and the results of that alert list are still available on the blog (see adjacent page). Of the 19 selected horses on the list, 3 did not run all season (Ebadiyan died in December 2010, Kalellshan has not been seen since winning at the Galway Festival of 2010, and Going Wrong finally reappeared in a novice chase last week). The other 16 horses ran a total of 63 times between 1st November 2010 and Sunday 10th April 2011 (the day after Grand National day) winning 10 races between them. What was remarkable about the list was that after Absolute Shambles lost on 1st February, the list was losing 53.25pts to recommended stakes (if 4/1 or under, 2pts win; over 4/1, 1pt eachway); but between then and close-of-play on Grand National day, the list recovered 35.125pts at SP.

There were mistakes and lessons learned from the list; Free World (ran 4, lost 4), Pickamus (ran 6, lost 6) and Cesium (ran 4, lost 4) were clearly badly handicapped and they may be worth taking a look at this season. Others, like Mont Present (ran once) Weird Al (ran 3, won 1, injured LTO), Gentle Ranger (ran 4, 4th in Midlands National), Midnight Haze (ran 3, won 1) and Rapid Increase (ran 3, won 1) still have a lot of potential. I am a bit gutted that I did not run the list from 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011, as the summer hat-trick by ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES (won at 25/1, 8/1 and 5/2) would surely have taken the list into profit for the season!

That introduction brings me to suggesting 3 horses to follow for the 2011-12 Jumps season, and they are:-
FLAT OUT – Willie Mullins unexposed 2nd-season chaser was last seen leading the Irish “Arkle” field into the 2nd-last fence and looking fully in command. That field included REALT DUBH (subsequently 3rd in the “Arkle” at the Festival to Captain Chris) and NOBLE PRINCE (won the Jewson Novice Chase over 2m5f at the Festival). It should be remembered that FLAT OUT was 5th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in what was only his 2nd hurdle race; the 1st four finishers being Menorah, Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, and Oscar Whisky; that was some performance and this has turned-out to be spectacular form!
Currently, FLAT OUT is rated on a very lenient handicap chasing mark of OR146 (Realt Dubh is now on OR157, and Noble Prince is on OR160). Mullins has him entered for the Paddy Power at Cheltenham next month, for which his odds are currently at 14/1. Myself, I would not be surprised to see this horse follow a similar path to that of Exotic Dancer in 2006/07, mopping-up top handicaps en-route to a Festival appearance.

GHIZAO- Paul Nicholls targeted this horse at the “Arkle” very early in the 2010-11 season. His win at Cheltenham in November 2010 was in a fast time and he had subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris well behind him that day. They met again at Newbury, and again (despite a 10lb penalty) GHIZAO put Captain Chris in his place. They next met in the “Arkle” itself and, as a vocal supporter of GHIZAO from that November race, he was carrying one of my larger wagers. It went wrong when at the top o’the hill, GHIZAO took-off half-a-stride too soon causing his lower abdomen to land on top of the fence. That mistake knocked the stuffing from him and he coasted thereon to the finish. He was next seen at Aintree where he met Finians Rainbow (2nd in the Arkle btn 2¾ lengths) at levels and, but for colliding with that horse at the 2nd-last and coming-off worst, he may well have won. Clearly, Captain Chris was a better horse in the Spring than he was in the previous autumn, but whether he is better than GHIZAO (should the latter get a clear round) is debateable. Paul Nicholls has already pencilled in races like the Tingle Creek en-route to taking-in the Queen Mother Champion Chase next March, and I reckon he will prove worthy. Currently 20/1 for the QMCC, he’s due to start this campaign in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on 1st November and we should see an improvement in his jumping.

My final horse of the 3 took a lot of deliberation. Having already nominated an Irish horse in FLAT OUT, I wanted to include another trained on this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish, going into the 2011-12 season, have perhaps their strongest “squad” for many a year; Noble Prince, Bostons Angel, and Hurricane Fly are just the tip of an iceberg of talent. Given the furore over the revised “whip” rules that is causing consternation amongst jockeys and punters, the horses that seem best-placed to benefit are those that love to bowl-along in front running & jumping for the pleasure of it and so requiring the minimum use of the whip. As such, my final choice for my 3-to-Follow is:-

WISHFUL THINKING trained by Phil Hobbs. Altho’ he was well-held by Noble Prince in the “Jewson” at the Festival, his two subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown showed him to be thoroughly top-class. This was especially so the way he put Medermit to the sword at Aintree. Given his style of running, a possible excuse for his defeat at the hands of Noble Prince was that he went-off too fast on ground that was probably too quick for him. Remember, he failed to act on similar going at Aintree in April 2010 and when the word “soft” appears in the going description he has won 5 from 7 (2nd on his debut NH Flat race, and fell at the 1st fence on his novice chase debut). Altho’ he has never run beyond 2m5f, he has only lacked the stamina to win when beaten by Noble Prince, so 3-mile should be within his scope. He could just be capable of leading all-the-way (like Desert Orchid) in the King George on Boxing Day for which he is currently 14/1.

No selections for the blog today despite there being an attractive meeting at Haydock.

Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online. If anyone has any problems with it please tell me.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Horseracing needs to get its act together

The 365th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a mess horseracing is in!
On Saturday morning, for the 1st time in ages, I watched the whole of Morning Line as the latest review by the BHA of the regulations regarding “whip” use were discussed. From that discussion and a “demonstration” of the use of the whip on a member of the public (if a whip is going to be demonstrated on tv, do it properly), it seemed to me that there are huge holes in the position from which the jockeys are taking.

Firstly, this is not solely a jockey problem – it is British Horseracing’s problem and involves ALL who take part or have an interest: owners, trainers, breeders, bookmakers, racecourse operators, valets, tack suppliers, and (of course) the racing public. And it is that racing public that (in my opinion) are the most important as if horseracing loses the confidence of that racing public in the sport, then horseracing in Britain will collapse like a pack of cards. Other countries, especially France and Ireland, will be happy to fill the gap left, and modern technology means that racing abroad can be watched and wagered on without much difficulty.

Horseracing as a whole needs to get it’s act together and the factions involved need to stop taking pot-shots at each other. Horseracing also needs to link-up with other sports and recreations that employ the use of animals. Animal lovers need to understand that groups like Animal Aid that hold extreme views will not be satisfied until every human in Britain is a vegan and no animals interact with humans in any way, be it horses for riding or a pet goldfish in a tank or bacon in a sandwich. There has to be a concerted effort to involve all animal lovers into acting together. There is no point in loving animals if (in the long run) humans have no interaction with them, and the general public need to understand that.

Onto horseracing, and I had a selection yesterday in GULLIBLE GORDON who ran well enough, but wasn’t good enough. It was almost certainly due to not having had a previous run as he was looking tired and his jumping was skewed from about 6 or 7 fences out. He is a gutsy performer tho’ and stayed-on, but had nothing more to give from the 2nd-last fence. The winner was GONE TO LUNCH who was able to recapture some of the level of form from his past (was 2nd in the Scottish National in April 2010 off OR140 - raced yesterday off OR122). If he can hold his form he should win again when reassessed, but that’s a big “if”. In 2nd was INTAC who ran a cracker of a race considering it was the furthest he’d ever run in public and had not shown any form in 4 previous attempts at trips beyond 2m5f, and had only won once from 6 attempts at 2m5f. What this race showed was that in races beyond 2m6f, horses which bowl-along in front galloping at their own pace without need of cajoling are still involved when the racing gets serious in the final half-mile. Other horses, such as Frosted Grape and Drybrook Bedouin were never able to get into the race and never would. Why? As they need constant cajoling to keep-up and, with only 8 uses of a “corrector” allowed, horses like these are destined for an early retirement.

No selections for the blog today as only flat racing available.

Lastly, I have added a subscription service to the blog so that readers can have new & updated blog content sent direct to their email in-box as soon as it is online.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Gordon! Don't be gullible.

The 364th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday – however, perhaps I should have had a wager given the results. I said I liked TATANIANO at Chepstow, but thought that his odds would be too short to represent value – and he had an SP of 5/2, incredible! Honest, I thought he’d start at 5/4 for this race and altho’ 9/4 was available when I wrote the blog yesterday I didn’t think readers would be able to get more than a “tenner” on him (if that) at those odds. Just goes to show that you have to keep your targets fixed during the day and step-in when the odds suggest that there is value. Remember, you don’t have to strike a bet, discretion lies with you.

The big story of the day was MASTER MINDED running well below form at Aintree. I did write on Friday that Master Minded was a bit of a character sometimes, and he certainly was not in the mood yesterday. Full marks tho’, go to Peter Bowen and connections of PURE FAITH who pushed eventual winner Albertas Run all the way to the final fence where he made a mistake which put paid to his chances – he still took 2nd place and £10,685 in prize-money. He is likely to be seen out at Aintree again today in a novice chase.

At Doncaster, CAMELOT trained in Ireland by AP O’Brien, took the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy and now heads the2012 Derby betting market at odds of 3/1 (which are bonkers). He showed a tremendous turn-of-foot to win this and is clearly an exceptional horse.

There is a very interesting h’cap chase at Wincanton at 2:50 over 3m3f. Last years winner Gullible Gordon returns and he is sure to be fit for this being sent here by Paul Nicholls. He carried 11st 8lb to win this last year, leading all-the-way. He has top-weight which is just another 4lb and he is the one to beat. Ballycarney does not look like he’ll stay much beyond 3-mile in a strong run race. Ballyvesey was 2nd in this race last year and meets Gullible Gordon on the same terms so its hard to see him reversing the places. Cullahill is another doubtful stayer beyond 3-mile, and whereas Templer will stay the trip, he struggles above OR128. Ethiopia will run his usual good race, but I feel the handicapper has him now, as is Frosted Grape. Of the others, Gone To Lunch needs to show he’s not “gone” at the game; Fortification is the 1st runner for trainer Kieran Burke and if he’s fit he could go very well off OR115 given he won a Class 2 chase off OR123 at Kempton in Dec 2009. As for Intac, this trip is a step into the unknown. Lastly, we have Drybrook Bedouin who is a horse I like as he stays all day long, but he’s up 11lb for a win last April and that’s tough. On reflection GULLIBLE GORDON at 6/1 (Ladbrokes) looks good value to repeat his win in the race of last season. The only doubt I have is the 7lb claimer who rides, David Pritchard, but that’s why GULLIBLE GORDON is 6/1 and not 7/2 fav.

Selection
Wincanton 2:50, GULLIBLE GORDON, 1pt win at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Master Minded to show who is boss

The 363rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

Today, we have 3 jumps meetings at Aintree, Chepstow and Stratford, and two flat meetings at Doncaster and Newbury. All-in-all, the day is set for a tremendous spectacle of horseracing.

Unfortunately, at Aintree (due, in no fault to the course) in what is the first major meeting of this jumps season, only 3 horse’s line-up for the feature race of the afternoon, the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. Now, I know MASTER MINDED is a class act but he is not unbeatable; and Albertas Run may be the one to beat in the “Ryanair“ come the Festival in March, but he is not normally at his best this early in the season. Both of these horses have the Festival next March as their prime targets – and so, this race at this time of year is when they should be best taken on. It’s obvious, isn’t it?
Fair play to Peter Bowen entering the outclassed novice Pure Faith to take the 3rd place money. However, I expect the Aintree management are wondering why the likes of Somersby, Mad Max, I’m So Lucky, Captain Cee Bee, Kalahari King, Tartak and others, are not here. None of them are ever going to be likely to win at the Festival in March, but they could claim a top race here when the best are at their weakest and, what’s more, race conditions are in their favour. It is very disappointing.
I cannot find a wager at Aintree today. I can see a few speculative “punts”, but nothing that I want to put my money on.

At Chepstow, I like Tataniano, but odds will be short.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Saturday lookahead

The 362nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Two selections for the blog yesterday with RAPID INCREASE taking 3rd place and the each-way spoils. Advised at 10/1 (SP 8/1), that’s 1.50pts profit (at quarter-odds).
The winner Horsham Lad had the benefit of a very lenient mark, and the front-3 pulled a long way clear of the remainder in what looked a race run at a testing gallop. All-in-all, a good effort from the selection and he goes back into my private alert list. If he reappears over an extra couple of furlongs he will be very interesting.
Unfortunately, the other selection, GOING WRONG, was 4th and missed out on a place only for lack of fitness and so 2pts lost there, meaning an overall ½pt loss on the day. On reflection, this looks a strong race (despite my comments in the blog yesterday) and GOING WRONG is one I’ll keep an eye out for when he runs next, especially if he steps up in trip to 2m4f+, and it could pay to keep an eye out all the 1st-4 home in this race.

Just a solitary jump meeting at Fakenham today and tho’ there are a couple of decent handicaps being run there, the fields are small and the races could get tactical.

Looking ahead to Saturday, and the meeting at Aintree is the first major meeting of the jumps season with the highlight being the “Old Roan” chase over 2m4f. MASTER MINDED stands out in this race and I would be very surprised if anything in the race can challenge him. That said, he is his own worst enemy and can idle when in front which, given the new “whip” rules could make things interesting after the final fence.
The opening hurdle over 2m1f is one that should be watched as recent winners have done extremely well in follow-up races. From the early entries, one I like the look of is HIGHWAY CODE who is sent by Richard Lee, and he won the race in 2006.
The Veteran’s handicap over 3m1f could be interesting. I have been following DOUBLE DIZZY for a couple of seasons as when he’s in the mood he can run a big race, and this looks his sort of opportunity.
There are a couple of my old fav’s entered later in the afternoon; in the 4:05 SOUND STAGE makes his seasonal debut. He was given only 3-runs last season, but each was a solid effort, and I’m sure Caroline Keevil will have this horse fit to do the business. Then, we have another from last season’s Horses to Follow list – PICKAMUS.
The meeting at Chepstow opens with a 3-mile maiden hurdle that has been won by some decent horses in recent years, so another race to have your notebook handy. Later on, the Persian War Novices Hurdle over 2m4f looks a cracker and it is a race Paul Nichols has won 3 times in the past 4 years. However, I will probably be looking for the winner of the 4:50, a 2m½f class 2 h’cap chase.
The other jumps meeting on Saturday is at Stratford and it has a couple of interesting handicaps.

I will be watching the Doncaster meeting, but I doubt I will be having a wager there. I am more interested in the flat meeting at Newbury which has, what looks to be, a cracking card.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

From last season HTF list, 2 selections at Carlisle

The 361st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but perhaps I should have been a bit more adventuraous with RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. He ran out a very easy winner yesterday as most of the field just did not perform and , with the benefit of hindsight, the morning odds of 2/1 were generous. Charlie Longsdon continued his tremendous form with a double by also winning with VINCITORE. I think this was a good result for form students and, despite there being only 4 runners in the race and the front 2 pulled clear, the runner-up was the Nicholls trained Aldertune. He may have been called a few names for being caught for pace at the business end, but Aldertune is well thought of by Nicholls and is a solid yardstick. VINCITORE won his previous race at Worcester on 23rd September and, so far 3 winners have won NTO (next time out) from that race (from 9 runners). Lastly, I did say TARVINI was looking like his old self and was worthy of an eachway wager and he duly ran 2nd at Fontwell.

Onto today and we have a useful looking meeting at Carlisle with another at Ludlow. Nothing takes my eye at Ludlow, but some of the races look interesting – so perhaps a day for the notebook there.
Carlisle has a couple that I want to be on today. In the 3:55, a class 3 h’cap chase over 3m & 110 yards, it is RAPID INCREASE that jumps out at me. He was on my Horses to Follow list last season when he ran just 3 times, but on the latest of those runs he won very easily at Fontwell over 3m2f. This trip may be on the short side, but Carlisle is a stiff track and this horse could be OR130+; as such odds of 10/1 (with Corals) looks great and with 4 places (16 go to post, barring non-runners) he looks one to be on. He has needed a run in the past, but O’Neill has had a few winners so I’m hoping he will be fit for this.

Next is another of last years Horses to Follow list that never actually ran – GOING WRONG. He is in the 5:00 at Carlisle which is a beginners chase over 2-mile. This trip may be on the short side for him too, but he should have the speed to cope having been a decent hurdler from just a few runs. As last as last February, he was Ferdy Murphy’s horse for the RSA at the Cheltenham Festival so he is clearly well thought of at home at at 10/1 (available generally) he is another decent looking opportunity in a race which (outside the fav) has little depth.

Selections:
Carlisle 3:55, RAPID INCREASE, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Corals)
Carlisle 5:00, GOING WRONG, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Shares available in CHILWORTH LASS

The 360th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday with CAPTAIN DASH being a non-runner.

With horseracing being poor yesterday, I took a look at the Trainers Stats for Jump Racing over the past 4 years to see if I could find any interesting pointers. This is a “work in progress” and something that I will add to “as & when” - so, don’t think this is the last of the trainer-form blogs. I will not be looking at the likes of Nicholls, Henderson etc as the horses from those stables are well researched anyway. What I’m looking for are trainers who regularly have 20+ winners during the winter who have greater than expected strike-rates with either hurdlers, or chasers, or before or after Xmas and the like.

David Arbuthnot
He does not have many horses in the stable (just 19 in 2010-11) but he had a 30% strike-rate for the season. Last season, he did particularly well with his hurdlers but that was unusual as he is consistently finding winners with his chasers. In the past 4 seasons he’s had 21 winners from 74 chases (28%) and considering not one was a 1st-time-out (FTO) winner (0 from 7) he’s a man to note, especially in chase races of class 3 or lower.

Kim Bailey
Currently undergoing a resurgence since moving to Thorndale Farm in Sept 2006. Many won’t know that Kim Bailey has won all of the “Big-3” races; the Grand National (1990: Mr Frisk), the Gold Cup (1995: Master Oats) and the Champion Hurdle (1995: Alderbrook). Bailey had his best season in years in 2010-11, but he seems particularly adept at placing his chasers; 14 wins from 59 chase runs and 6 of his 12 chasers won FTO. He should be especially noted when he sends one for a class 3 chase (or lower) at trips of 2m4f or longer (11 wins from 49 runs; +£41.58 to £1).

Next, a plug for the White Diamond Racing Partnership of which I am a member. This was formed to own and race the 3yo juvenile hurdler CHILWORTH LASS who is in training with Sheena West on the South Downs just outside Brighton. Sheena has been firing in the winners this autumn including a hat-trick with ALFRAAMSEY another 3yo hurdler that (like Chilworth Lass) was bought out of the Mick Channon yard. The vibes are good about Chilworth Lass and her debut over hurdles is anticipated to be in November. There are still a couple of shares left in the syndicate so if you are interested please contact whitediamondracing@gmail.com and Tom Castle or Stefan Fellows will sort out the details. I’ve a good feeling about this horse as she is tenacious and game and reminds me of Katchit (oh, were she to prove as good!).

A couple of jump meetings today, but both Fontwell and Worcester are suffering from good-to-firm ground. Racing at Fontwell looks uncompetitive although one from my private alert list – TARVINI – looks like he’s recapturing form of old and he could be an eachway wager in the hurdle at 4:30. So, the focus is on Worcester.

Paul Nicholls sends ALDERTUNE for the 3:15 which is a novice chase and while the Charlie Longsdon runner Vincitore must be respected, Nicholls thinks a lot of Aldertune and, in coming here, he must be considered one of his better novice chasers. Unfortunately, current odds of 11/10 (I was hoping for 9/4+) are too short and not value.

Charlie Longsdon sends one off my private alert list to Worcester – RESTEZEN D’ARMOR for the 4:20. Longsdon won this race last year with Sir Ian and, by comparison, the two horses are complete opposites – Sir Ian being a bold front-runner and Restezen D’Armor a hold-up horse; so-much-so that sometimes it looks like he’s given up! Another interesting one in the race is Rate Of Knots who looks extremely well handicapped on OR116. The doubt about him is the ground as he’s looked best suited by soft or worse, so why he’s running here today is debateable (have just learned he’s a non-runner). King Ozzy will no-doubt help make the pace and trainer Lawney Hill is 3 from 7 here with chasers and that makes his odds of 9/2 (Betfred) fair for this 6-runner race. It is hard to see RESTEZEN D’ARMOR being beaten now, but odds of 2/1 are not value (I’m wanting 5/2+).

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The BHA vs PJA

The 359th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but it was an informative day for horseracing.

Firstly, many thanks to the 21 readers of the blog who ticked one of the reaction boxes. According to my stats page, yesterday’s page was viewed (and hopefully read) by 41 visitors. There were a total of 499 “hits” on the blog, of which 287 came from 2 websites (one in the USA and one in Vietnam). This couple of websites have been flooding my blog with “pings” for about 3 weeks and I don’t know why or how to stop it. The balance of 171 “hits” is the usual background noise of the internet – search engines (I assume) pinging the blog when one of the labels is mentioned in a search on google or yahoo etc.

The BHA (British Horseracing Authority) met the PJA (Professional Jockeys Association) yesterday to discuss the implications of the whip rules. I expect that the whip rules are here to stay and there will be little (if any) respite. What I would expect there to be is a re-dressing of the penalties for infringements. Something along the lines of:-
Whip-use +1 (ie, 6 strikes in final furlong): jky caution & fine of 50% of riding fee/winnings;
Whip-use +2: Jockey gets 2-day ban & 75% fine;
Whip-use +3: Jockey gets 3-day ban & 100% fine;
Whip-use +4 and over: Jockey gets a day for every over-use of the whip.

At the moment, I feel the punishments levied have been draconian and unless the punishment is tempered then there will be trouble ahead.

The jump racing at Exeter is poorly attended today, probably due to the good-to-firm going. There is only one horse from my Alert List running, and it is CAPTAIN DASH in the 3:40 (won on Friday in a canter). There is a front-runner in the race who could set a fast early pace - Run Along Boy - and he may take some catching. It is a pity there are only 6 running as the rank outsider - Consulate - looked like he was recapturing some form LTO and he'll be staying-on. All-in-all, I cannot have CAPTAIN DASH at 13/8 as I think he’s more of a 9/4 chance. Being a hold-up horse early-on, he will likely trade much longer in-running and I may leave a small wager on after the off (say at 9.00) and see if it’s taken.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Please register your interest - thanks!

The 358th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I wish I had posted up the couple that were on my alert list - as they both won!

For those who follow me via twitter (you can find me at @wayward_lad) you will know that I posted the following in Saturday evening at 10:39pm (just before watching Match Of The Day): “Sheena West sends well-regarded ALFRAAMSEY to Kempton for the opener tomorrow, and it's hard not to see him winning.” And win he did at odds of 15/8.

Later in the afternoon on Sunday, the horse I told you of in last Thursday’s blog – De Valira – won at Cork over a trip of 2m4f. Being ridden by Ruby Walsh probably helped, as did the extra couple of furlongs (ran over 2m2f on Thursday), and he won at the rewarding odds of 11/2 (opened at 13/2).

I may not post selections or write a daily blog – but (and I’ve written this before) there is plenty of information on this blog to help find you winning wagers. If you like having a wager on horseracing, then you should make this blog a regular port of call.

Could I ask a favour of readers of this blog?
I am trying to ascertain how many of the “hits” on the blog are actual visitors who read it, and how many are just search engines that “ping” the blog. Could you please “tick” one of the reaction boxes that are below this blog (just above the comments section)? Also, would anyone prefer to have the blog emailed to them when it is published online rather than have to visit it via the internet (I appreciate that some employers restrict internet access) and does anyone know a “tool” that I can add onto the blog that would allow visitors to register for such a service? The notification tool on this blog only tells visitors who register when there is a change on the blog, it does not tell them what the change is.

The meeting at Plumpton is disappointing today, so no selections.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

BALTHAZAR KING another winner for the blog

The 357th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A good day for the blog yesterday with a good winner in BATHAZAR KING at an SP of 11/4 (advised at 7/2). The selection looked very leniently treated on OR136 based on his run at this meeting last year when 3rd to Chicago Grey (Balthazar King was 14lb better-off, for a 6-length beating) and he probably would have been only beaten a length or two when they met at level weights last November and Chicago Grey fell at the 2nd-last fence. I rate BATHAZAR KING at 146 on last season’s form, and he won like a 146 horse running-off OR136 today – he had a lot in-hand.

EDGEBRIAR, my other selection, was a disappointment. He was very keen early-on and basically ran out of energy so that, by the top of the hill on the 2nd circuit, when the leader Billie Magern quickened-up the pace EDGEBRIAR had nothing left in the tank and quickly folded. Not sure what to make of this; was the horse fit enough? He should have been, so perhaps there was another reason. As for Billie Magern, he was the horse I considered the “danger” to my selection and perhaps I should have advised a split-stake and had ½pt on both – but it is always easier in hindsight!

ONE FOR JOULES was running a big race till falling at the final flight. She would not have won, but I am sure she would have been 2nd, albeit well beaten by the impressive winner Kalaan.

Onto Ascot, and how Fame And Glory was sent off at odds of 3/1 when he was sent off to win the Ascot Gold Cup in June – just 4 months ago – as the 11/8 fav, is beyond me. Yes, he had looked disappointing in his latest run in the Irish St Leger, but he was proven on this course and on this going and was no worse off at the weights than at Royal Ascot in June. It was a lost opportunity.

FRANKEL was duly crowned the best racehorse in training in the World following his victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Apparently, Timeform have rated him at 143, and Racing Post Ratings at 139 (their highest ever rating since inception in 1988). Me? If 2nd-placed Excelebration ran to his OR126 rating (and I don’t think he did) then FRANKEL would be rated OR134. FRANKEL went into the race with a rating of OR135, and I don’t think he had to beat that to win today, nor did he look like he had a few pounds up his sleeve.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

2 wins from 3 selections yesterday

The 356th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

A great day for the blog yesterday, I hope you all took note of the 3 horses that I put up:
2:45, THAT’LL DO – won well at odds of 15/8 (advised at 11/4)
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – also won well at the tremendous odds of 8/1 (was 5/s in the morning)
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – ran a stinker, maybe ground was too quick for him.

Due to these results and all my recent blogs on the jumps racing which has seen me put-up winners at 14/1, 9/2, 8/1 and 15/8 from a handful of selections, I am going to change my advice policy. From now on ALL named horses will be posted-up as selections and included within my stats on Betting League and Tip Exchange.

TRAFFIC ARTICLE came off my private Alert List and this list is already proving profitable. I know (without bragging) that I can spot improving and under-rated horses over the jumps that go on and win NTO (next-time-out) at decent odds. My alert list will provide the backbone of my selections this jumps season.

Onto today, and we have Champions Day at Ascot. The Champion Stakes itself has been a good race for me recently as I have been a follower of TWICE OVER and he’s done me proud. He has shown himself as good as ever this season, and I believe that he handles this Ascot 10-furlong track and trip (based on his close 2nd in the Prince Of Wales to Byword in 2010). As such, current odds of 12/1 are in my opinion far too long, and I find it hard to see him finishing outside the 1st-3 in a race that has been his target all year.

At Cheltenham, the opening 3-mile novice hurdle looks competitive. I’ll not advise a selection in the race, but if the Paul Nicholls trained ROUND TOM get’s longer than 8/1 then I’ll be having a small wager on him, probably a back-to-lay (back at 9.20, lay-off at 4.60 to double investment).

Next on the card, the 2m4f class 2 h’cap chase, has cut-up due to the quick going and only 8 go to post. There will be some pace on from Billie Magern and he could take some catching as he stays 3-mile, but I think he will be caught as the pace and going should suit last year’s winner EDGEBRIAR who comes into this race just 1lb higher than the rating he won off last year. At 13/2, he looks a value wager.

The class 2 novice hurdle has one from my alert list in ONE FOR JOULES. He won easily LTO with 11st 10lb on his back and tho’ she may be outclassed by these today, she is proven race-fit and has the form in the book whereas the others still have it to prove. I think odds of 6/1 are fair value.

There are more non-runners in the 3m class 2 h’cap chase and that means the odds have contracted somewhat. But I feel that BALTHAZAR KING is on a lenient mark of OR136, not only that but he has winning form at Cheltenham and will love this going. At odds of 7/2 he looks value, but only just.

I cannot see a worthy selection at Kelso.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:40, EDGEBRIAR, 1pt win at 13/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go best odds guaranteed)
Cheltenham 3:50, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win at 7/2 (Bet365, Betfred, both go BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Richard Hughes quits over new whip rules

The 355th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

The devastating news that top jockey Richard Hughes has handed-in his license after receiving a 10-day ban (his 2nd ban of the week on top of a 4-day ban he received on Monday) for infringing the new whip rules, is mind boggling.

This is the same Richard Hughes who has received just 2, 1-day bans for riding infringements in the past 3 years (Frankie Dettori, take note).

I think the penalties for whip infringements are severe, too severe in my opinion. The rules have completely changed the way horses are ridden and (in some ways) are at-odds with the rules of racing which have applied for the past couple of hundred years. I would have though a 3-month probationary period for the rules with only 1-day bans applied for infringements would have allowed everyone to learn and appreciate the way forward. It would also have allowed the rules to be tweaked without receiving criticism for going backwards.

What I do know is that I reckon I have lost money on at least one wager this week on a horse that should have won but who’s jockey did not use their whip on the run-in for fear of infringing the rules. What it means for punters is that we have to value resolution and gameness in horses a lot more – quirky horses will be too risky to follow.

Another unfortunate result of Richard Hughes’ actions is that he’s gone “live” on radio and not done horseracing in general a good deed. He was clearly too emotional about yesterday’s events and he should have taken his complaints directly to the BHA and aired them in that private sphere, not in public. If he’d received short-shrift from the BHA, then he should have gone public, but then he would have possibly been able to provide a more reasoned argument to the general public. Instead, it is now “them & us”, and the general public are thinking jockeys want to be allowed to whip horses at the races – and this only months after the headlines were grabbed by an elephant being hit with a broom by his handler.

I fear that horseracing in the UK will soon go the way of greyhound coursing and fox-hunting.

Onto today’s action, and we have the opening meeting of the jumps season at Cheltenham. But first, I was right yesterday about DE VALIRA who held onto 3rd spot for the place money. This looked a top novice chase, and I would put the 1st-2 finishers into your notebook – LUCKY WILLIAM and WHODOYOUTHINK.

The racing at Cheltenham has cut-up probably due to the going being on the quick side. There are a couple I like the look of, but the odds about them are not great, so I’m not offering them up as selections. They are:-
2:45, THAT’LL DO – could be one of Paul Nicholls better novice chasers, he’s 11/4 with Corals.
3:55, TRAFFIC ARTICLE – Elliot’s chasers cannot be overlooked, he’s 5/1 with Vic Chandler.
5:05 SHADOW DANCER – I was impressed by this one LTO, he’s 6/1 generally.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

De Valira could show young-bloods the way home

The 354th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection – ARCHIE’S WISH – was a non-runner.
In hindsight, it was probably another bullet missed as I very much doubt that he’d have been able to win the race yesterday as Charlie Longsdon continues to keep his stable runners in top-form and his entry in the race – Wide Receiver – won the race very easily.

My other “tentative” selection was TRES CORONAS, but he got no run at all as he reared in the stalls and was left at the start – possibly due to his jockey being slow to remove the hood placed over the horse’s head to coax him to enter the stalls. As such, put a line thru’ this formline and ignore it.

There are a couple of interesting meetings at Wincanton and Uttoxeter, but there is also a quality midweek meeting in Ireland at Punchestown. I cannot see anything of interest at Wincanton, tho’ at Uttoxeter the 2-mile h’cap chase at 4:40 looks a possibility. I thought FARLEIGH HOUSE was a shade unlucky not to come out on-top and win on Tuesday at Huntingdon, as he looked to have the race at his mercy after the final flight (it was a hurdle race). From that, we know the horse is fit and in good spirits and, at this stage of the season, that’s a big plus.

At Punchestown, there is a competitive Grade 3 novice chase over 2m2f at 3:45 and DE VALIRA has looked a lot more like realising the potential of his novice hurdle days as a chaser (had a long period of absence due to injury). He may be a 9yo but he has bags of class and looked like winning LTO approaching the last fence till caught for pace. The extra couple of furlongs today will be more to his favour and he is better than a 10/1 chance, as I’d have him at 4/1 for this. I’m not sure he’ll win as both Shinrock Paddy and Rathlin have similar qualities and they are younger, but I’m sure DE VALIRA will be placed in the 1st-3, so perhaps a “place-only” wager on the exchanges.

No need to push the boat out yet as there is a good meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow and Saturday and there will surely be some good wagering opportunities.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Invest in what you know about

The 353rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

“Invest in what you know about”
Wise words from the “Off Piste” column of the Weekender provided by James Fanshawe when interviewd by John O’Hara. They originated from Lord White of Hull and although they were directed at stock market investing, they are just as valuable for “investors” in horse-racing. If you have not taken the time to appraise all the horses in a race, don’t invest in it.

I was also taken-in by the words Fanshawe said about his filly Spacious being his biggest disappointment when losing by a short-head at Ascot last summer. I was also "hit" by that loss; she was the subject that day of one of my largest ever wagers, and it marked the beginning of a losing sstreak for me.

No selections for the blog yesterday and, judging by how the results went, I probably dodged a bullet not advising anything.

The opening race was the 1st under the new “whip” rules over jumps and I felt that these new rules affected the result. Why? Because Farleigh House jumped the final flight as much the strongest horse and in front yet, his rider never once used his whip on the horse on the run-in. Not so eventual winner Tayarat, who had led for much of the race at his own pace. His rider was able to give the horse a couple of inducements on the run-in to which he responded well – and from looking a tired “also-ran” he quickly gained a winning advantage. We all have a lot to learn, and it could be an expensive winter if we don’t learn fast.

WALLS WAY may have gone close had he not fallen at the 2nd-last but, probably, the reason for the fall was that he was tired and so I doubt he’d have won anyway. BEDOUIN BAY looked impressive in winning the 20f+ novice hurdle, and he’s one going in my notebook.

What was most interesting was how much the Paul Nicholls runner SPOCK was beaten in the novice chase. Race winner OSTLAND enjoyed a return to novice company with an emphatic win, but SPOCK was disappointing. That he started the 3/1 fav and finished well ahead of a couple of race-fit rivals suggests that he met a very decent horse in OSTLAND.

As I wrote yesterday, not many horses stay 3-mile plus and as I expected, the 3 market leaders - Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy –filled 3 of the 1st-4 places. Jockey, AP McCoy, gave an exemplary display to win this race. He reserved a single use of the whip for his mount LOST GLORY on the 2nd-stride after the final flight, and then he showed his strength with hands’n’heels to push his horse to victory. Winter Alchemy was caught on the line, and I feel the form of this race is strong and can be followed.

I won’t be looking at the “flat” much from now on but one from my private alert list runs today at Nottingham in the 3:15 – TRES CORONAS. I’ve had him on my list since he was a fast-finishing 2nd to Granny McFee at Chester in May. I am surprised his trainer TD Barron has not employed Graham Gibbons for the ride but, even so, he looks worthy of a small ew wager at odds of 14/1 over this trip and on ground that should not inconvenience him (he did not handle the soft/heavy LTO).

There is a jumps meeting at Wetherby and at this meeting last year I advised a wager on ARCHIE’S WISH in the 2:50. He was 2nd that day off OR81 and then ran well NTO off OR84; so to go into today’s race on OR75 on ground he should appreciate looks good, and I rate him better than the 6/1 chance he currently is. The 7lb claiming jockey Joe Colliver is a bit of an unknown, but he’s won 3 races from 18 rides. The Bobby Renton H’Cap Chase probably needs a bit more thought, and if I have a selection then I will post it later.

Selection
Wetherby 2:50, ARCHIE’S WISH, 1pt win at 6/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Decent jumping action at Huntingdon

The 352nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There is just the one jumps meeting today at Huntingdon, and it's an interesting one too, and not just as it's the first jumps meeting using the new "whip" rules. The opening race is a brain teaser as both Phil Hobbs - Serious Choice - and Ferdy Murphy - Capricornus - have good strikerates at the Cambridgeshire track. Cumbrian trainer Nicky Richards usually does not travel well with horses sent far from home base, but he's won 2 from 6 here (both were chases) and he has the 3/1 fav Parc Des Princes. Those odds look fair about the fav and he would be the one I would be on for small money.

There has been a bit of money for Sambelucky probably on-account of trainer Keith Reveley having a good strike-rate here. However, I prefer WALLS WAY who was beaten by a good one LTO. Not a horse to take a short price on, odds of 7/2 are fair.

The 2m4f & 110yards trip is a step into the unknown for all the novice hurdlers in the 3:20. Of the field, I made a note of TROVARE when he won LTO and he should stay this trip.

When I woke this morning, I was going to oppose SPOCK in the 3:50 as I thought, being from the Paul Nicholls stable, he's be 7/4 or shorter. However, he is 3/1 with Vic Chandler and you cannot really oppose a chaser from the Nicholls stable in October. It is debateable whether Ostland can give him 14lbs. Firm Order races off his hurdle rating of OR122 yet this is his chase debut. Points Of View should stay 3-mile and he looked progressive earlier this summer (was outclassed LTO). For me, it is Peter Bowen's only runner NATURAL ACTION who fell LTO at the final fence. Bowen makes the long 241 mile trip here for this and the trip and going should suit this one. Odds of 11/2 available generally, look more than fair.

Not many horses stay 3-mile plus and so races like the 4:20 over 3m2f can sometime present easy pickings. This race tho' looks too tough to call and should fall to one of the market leaders of Lost Glory, Only Witness or Winter Alchemy. Given the odds, Winter Alchemy at 13/2 (Vic Chandler and Stan James) looks the most value.

Nothing jumps out at me as a firm selection (I wrote a similar statement last week, and had 2 winners from 2 named horses at 14/1 and 9/2). Will I rue those words?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Chepstow chasers

The 351st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

There is a good meeting on the flat at Newmarket today with a couple of Group 1 races for 2yo’s and the historic “Cesarewitch” handicap run over 2m2f. I have never been a big fan of the Cesarewitch, so I’m not even going to contemplate making a selection in this race of 34 runners. I am also opposed to the running of the Group 1 races, the Middle Park Stakes over 6f and the Dewhurst over 7f, on the same day. These races should be split and run on separate days with perhaps 14-days between them. One race will, over time, suffer – and it will most likely be the Middle Park Stakes.

There is a meeting on the flat at York, but this is another I will pass over.

So, I will concentrate on the two “jumps” meetings at Hexham and Chepstow. At Hexham, I was going to go for QUITE THE MAN in the opener as he ran a cracker of a race on his chase debut. However, there is no value in his current odds of 6/5, in fact I’d rather have a wager on L’Eldorado at 3/1 as there was little to split these two over hurdles when they met. There is an interesting h’cap chase at 3:15 over 2m4f &110yds and I like it as the markets look weak. Present To You has not looked anywhere near as good a chaser as hurdler, and this could be his last chance. Beneficial Reform makes his chase debut under rules, and he has not shown much over hurdles to warrant special merit. As such, with the going in his favour, I can see STAGECOACH AMBER making all here and taking the race at 4/1 (He was 13/2 as I wrote this earlier, but now Beneficial Reform is a non-runner).

Chepstow has a cracking novice chase at 4:10 even if it has only 4 runners. CUE CARD makes his much-awaited chase debut, however SILVINIACO CONTI was rated a better hurdler and comes into this the 5/4 2nd-fav. Personally, I would be on SILVINIACO CONTI as Paul Nicholls always has his novice chasers primed to do the business and I think the 3rd-fav MICHAEL FLIPS will follow him home as he has already proven he can jumps a fence in Oct 2010, and this 2m4f trip will suit him.

The next on the card, a h’cap hurdle, sees another Nicholls horse Domtaline as fav, but I think this horse still has a lot to prove and cannot be seen as value at current odds of 11/10. Given his “potential” this race is a no-bet one for me, unless you want to take on the fav. The 2nd-fav Jubail looks like he prefers going right-handed to left-handed so he’s not the one. MR HARMOOSH was unlucky not to win LTO and is bang-in-form for Sheena West, and he is the one I’d be on.

The 3-mile h’cap chase at 5:50 is the highlight of the Chepstow meeting. Emma Lavelle has won this race twice in the past 3 years so Ouzbeck, for her, must be respected. However, I reckon he wants further than 3-mile these days. I don’t think Templer can win off a rating higher than OR128, so he’s not for me. Born Again and Swincombe Rock both have to prove to me that they can stay this trip in this sort of company. Bellflower Boy will almost certainly need this run. I wagered on LE BEAU BAI several times last season and he will be finishing strongly but almost certainly too late. I think REVE DE SIVOLA is better than his OR142 and he will prove hard to beat even with top-weight. FIVE DREAM from Paul Nicholls stable and with Ruby Walsh in the saddle ran very well fresh this time last season off OR132 when 2nd at Market Rasen beating a race-fit field of proven performers. He comes into this on OR128 and the trip and going should suit him. Personally, I would want more than 7/1.

Selections:
Hexham 3:15, STAGECOACH AMBER, 1pt win @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes
Chepstow 5:50, REVE De SIVOLA, 1pt win @ 7/2 available generally

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Who fills the gap at Carlisle today?

The 350th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

No selections for the blog yesterday.

The one horse I mentioned – GOLAN GUY – was running in Ireland at Tramore for AJ Martin with Ruby Walsh in the saddle. He started off a solid fav at 7/4 but never got into the race and, at the finish, was found to be lame. These things happen in racing, horses are not machines and that’s why you have to “build-in” an element of risk into your wagers.

There are a couple of jumps meetings today (I’m not bothering with the meeting at York on the “flat”). I am particularly drawn to the meeting at Carlisle for a couple of reasons. Firstly, I have been fairly successful at this meeting for the past couple of years, mainly by following the runners of Howard Johnson. However, as a result of his ban from racing, he has now “retired” from the sport and that has left a huge gap that needs filling on the Northern jumps circuit. The obvious candidates to fill it are Don McCain, Nicky Richards and Sue Smith and all 3 are well represented at the races there today.

Nothing takes my eye at Newton Abbot.

I’m looking more at the meetings on Saturday at Chepstow and Hexham and there could be a decent wager to be had. I may also have a final wager on the flat racing at Newmarket for the season, but I doubt it will be on the Cesarewitch.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Two winners from two races; 14/1 & 9/2

The 349th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a cracking result for the blog yesterday!
I looked at just 2 races from which I made just 2 selections and both won – BOLD PERK made all to win at an SP of 14/1 and then MARKED MAN followed -up winning at 9/2.

BOLD PERK, as expected, made the pace in his race and considering he had virtually all his rivals off-the-bridle 5-out I am surprised he was trading so generously till that point at between 8.0 – 12.0 on the exchanges. He does have an awkward head carriage and seems to flinch constantly, but he is game horse, of that there is no doubt. As I expected CALYPSO BAY was the best of the rest, but he did not seem to enjoy Ludlow and, despite being well-placed, he hit a flat-spot about 5-out when he lost some ground on the leaders before rallying late on. The Tote Exacta paid an enormous £57.80 to a £1 stake and, considering I only thought these two were in the race, that was a missed opportunity.

As for MARKED MAN, what a race from the 15yo. He took it up at 7-out and quickly had them all struggling to keep up. It was only because he took a wide line into the home straight that Overton Lad came up-sides him again. But, MARKED MAN had been jumping clean & true and an another enormous jump at the 2nd last sealed the race. How this one started at odds of 9/2 is beyond me, as I had him clear fav and even the Racing Post had him at 2/1 in their betting forecast.

These 2 winning selections will NOT be included in the results list for this blog because, as I wrote yesterday “No recommended wagers for me but, if you want an interest in the afternoon to warrant some attention, then BOLD PERK and MARKED MAN should give you some entertainment.” However, as I wrote on the blog all last jumps season, there is plenty of info on here to help you find winning wagers – all you have to do is visit the blog every day, read it, and take note.

A couple of meetings at Exeter and Worcester over the jumps, but neither provides me with the sort of opportunities we had yesterday on first glance. One off my private alert list GOLAN GUY runs in Ireland at Tramore in the 3:15 for AJ Martin, and Ruby Walsh rides. When Ruby is in the saddle on a Martin runner, take note; but you won’t get much value with this one.

Lastly, to answer the comment from RSS: no, I can't give you 5 - 7 eachway selections for today. It's not my style, never has been. However, keep reading the blog and you may learn why I don't play the horses like that!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The "jumps" season proper starts today

The 348th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

On this day 2-years ago, I embarked (due to a period of prolonged unemployment) on a campaign of endeavour: to make money from wagering on horseracing - be it betting, laying, back-to-lay, place-laying, exchange price movements. You name it, I tried it.

This day sticks in my head as I had a fairly successful day at the races 2-years ago finding the 15/2 winner of what is today's 3:10 at Ludlow (a 3-mile class 4 h'cap chase) which was Winsley Hill. Today's meetings at Ludlow and Towcester mark, for me, the start of the "jumps" season proper. Unfortunately, the firm going at both tracks has put a dampener on the day's racing and some of the races have not attracted many entries. In the 3:10 at Ludlow, I like the chance of CALYPSO BAY who is easy to back at 4/1 generally, but he has tended to drop-out early in his races and Ludlow, being a tight right-handed track, may not suit him in getting back into the race if there is some pace on. That pace will likely come from BOLD PERK, and he can run better than his odds of 14/1 suggest (for a long way at least).

At Towcester, the 4:50 - a class 5 h'cap chase over 3-mile-plus - is a race I would normally avoid having just 6 runners. As it happens, the last time OVERTON LAD won (over C&D) in May 2010, I had a wager on him. That was only the 2nd win in his career off 38 races and he's a horse that needs coaxing along. VAN GALEN won this race last year, but he's not won since nor ever looked like winning. That leaves MARKED MAN, who may be a 15yo but he's in form that looks good enough to win this race. He's 7/2 generally, but 4/1 with Sportingodds if you can get a few quid on.

No recommended wagers for me but, if you want an interest in the afternoon to warrant some attention, then BOLD PERK and MARKED MAN should give you some entertainment.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

German filly DANEDREAM dominates Europe's best

The 347th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

We saw the arrival of a true champion filly in DANEDREAM yesterday at Longchamp when she massacred a quality opposition field in a race record time.

Some people were crying “foul” after the race and suggesting hard-luck stories. But, in my opinion, the race showed that jockeys should concentrate on winning the race in question and stop trying to be tactical and trying to out-wit the other jockeys.

For instance, although it was no surprise to me to see TREASURE BEACH go off into a good early lead, I was surprised the pace being set was one not able to be sustained by the Irish Derby winner. Given this was almost certainly a tactic that had been agreed before the race, I could not understand why race fav and stablemate SO YOU THINK was not brought thru’ the field to sit closer to the leaders between the 10f-6f poles. As such, when the leaders passed the 6f pole, SO YOU THINK was possibly 20+ lengths off the pace and – given the horses ahead of him being proven at the trip and with great powers of acceleration – had little or no chance of being involved at the finish. I’ve watched every running of the “Arc” live on tv since 1968 (when Vaguely Noble beat Sir Ivor) and it takes a truly exceptional horse to come from way-off the pace in the “Arc” and win; something like Dancing Brave in 1986. If you read my blog on the “Arc” you will know that I expected SO YOU THINK to be ridden much closer to the leaders and, had that been the case, he could well have been involved at the finish.

Whatever the fate of others, let nothing take anything away from the performance of DANEDREAM. The change of pace she showed at the furlong pole was devastating. Eventual 3rd SNOW FAIRY, who herself has a tremendous turn-of-foot, could not go with her and was made to look one-paced. It reminded me a lot of when All Along won the “Arc” with a similar display – and she was unbeatable afterwards. I rated the performance at 129 on a line thru’ Snow Fairy who I felt ran her best ever performance at 12-furlongs.

On Saturday, I put up two selections and both were beaten. They both ran at Ascot on the flat and, unless I spot something with a tremendous chance at the odds, they will be my final flat racing selections till after the 2012 Grand National.

GENKI missed the break and was never able to recover from that event in the race. As for RAINFALL, she ran a complete stinker and that’s the last of my money that she will be carrying. Personally, I doubt she’ll see a racecourse again, so it probably won’t matter.

I will update my results pages and will produce a review of my selections for the past 12 months.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Good meeting at Ascot today

The 346th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

One of the best weekends sport in ages. Rugby, Football, Horseracing, Rugby League – you name it, this weekend has it!

At Ascot, the opening Group 3 “Cornwallis” for 2yo’s over 5-furlongs is a great pointer for next season’s sprinter types. Have your notebook handy. Next up, and we have the return of last year’s St Leger winner ARCTIC COSMOS. He’s been aimed at the Arc de Triomphe all year, and it’s only because the going is not fast enough for him that he’s not at Longchamp. He won’t run in this unless he’s fit to do the biz, and he’s a proper Group 1 horse in a Group 3 race. In my opinion (IMO) he should start odds-on for this, so anything longer than 6/4 is worth having, as such I have taken already the 5/2 offered by William Hill on Friday evening. With an autumn campaign in mind tho’, he won’t be given a hard race so I cannot make him a firm selection for the blog.

If GENKI cannot win the 3:15, a Group 3 over 6-furlongs, then it will be a decent horse that beats him. Currently 7/2 generally, that looks fair value.

The 7-furlong h’cap looks a cracker of a race. You could easily name half-a-dozen, and Smarty Socks is in peak form having won over C&D LTO. But HAWKEYETHENOO has the going he loves for the first time since winning the Victoria Cup over C&D in May this year. He also has Kieren Fallon in the saddle and looks weighted well on OR104, but this looks a tough race to call as it’s filled with rock solid handicappers.

Next on the card is the Rous Stakes over 5-furlongs and I’ll pass this race over for easier pickings. In the Listed race at 5:00, I had a wager on RAINFALL when she failed to stay a mile LTO. She won this race over 7-furlongs last season, and she should have far too much ability for this field. As such, odds of 7/2 generally look good to me.

At Ripon, nothing catches my eye other than HIDDEN GLORY in the 5:45. This horse has won twice off OR83 and wasn’t beaten far by Beachfire (no less) of OR78. Yet, here he is on OR69 with going and trip in his favour, why? Because he is being held-up in his races when he needs to run prominently. Will this be the day of return to favoured tactics?

I can’t see anything of interest at Newmarket.

The jumps racing card at Fontwell looks interesting, but Fontwell isn’t one of my favourite tracks as being a “figure-of-eight” for chases and a sharp track for hurdles, it can be too tight for some horses.

Selections:
Ascot 3:15, GENKI, 1pt win at 7/2 (available generally)
Ascot 5:00, RAINFALL, 1pt win at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad