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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 21 December 2011
Fwd: Spring is in the air
The 409th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.
I was very disappointed with yesterday's selection PRINCE TOM. Firstly,
his booked jockey Harry Derham was replaced at about 11:30am as he was
declared ill and unfit to ride by Paul Nicholls (trainer of Prince Tom).
His replacement James Cowley is (like Harry Derham) a 7lb claimer, tho'
he's had fewer rides than Derham. Had I known that in the morning, then
I would not have recommended a wager at odds of 3/1. Secondly, despite
the jockey change, the horse ran a lacklustre race. None of the market
leaders in the race was involved at the finish, so perhaps the ground
(soft side of good-to-soft) was the factor.
Overall, not a good day, and I've decided that unless I'm super
confident about a selections chances then I am going to avoid making
selections whose odds (when I post the blog) are at less than 7/2.
Onto today, and we have a couple of meetings at Ffos Las and Ludlow.
The meeting at Ffos Las is on heavy going, and that could make things
tricky there for finding winners. I was going to have an interest in the
3-mile 1f & 110 yard chase at 2:45 as KAYBEEW is on my alert list
following his win LTO, but current odds of 5/2 are silly. Horsham Lad
(5/2) and Mohayer (5/1) are both holding decent chances in this, and you
cannot rule out My Moment (8/1) either.
Ludlow has a few more from my alert list running, with 2 in the novice
chase at 1:00, Nosecond Chance and Alpha Way. I really like both of
these and, on the form-book, I can't split them. Of the pair, given
today's trip of 2m4f, I'd be more inclined to side with ALPHA WAY
(current odds 5/1) over Nosecond Chance (7/2), but I may place a small
reverse forecast wager on the pair.
The other race that has a runner from my alert list is the 2:35, a
3-mile handicap chase. I have just learned that Chapolimoss is a
non-runner and that leaves the way open for TIME FOR SPRING. I made note
of this one when he easily won his debut chase. Then, LTO, he was well
there till close home at Cheltenham in what looks to have been a hot
handicap. This easier course will suit him as will going right-handed
(he's won at Carlisle); and he's been dropped a couple of pounds too!
Currently 3/1, he should perhaps be a little shorter as his only
competition looks like being Made In Time which pairs AP McCoy with the
Rebecca Curtis trained runner. Curtis and McCoy enjoy a high strike-rate
when coupled, but Made In Time has to prove he has the stamina for
today's trip. Recent winner Battlecry is another fancied runner, but he
was fortunate to win LTO (weak race) and he's vulnerable to the
unexposed pair of TIME FOR SPRING and Made In Time.
Had I written this blog before Chapolimoss was declared a non-runner
then he'd have been my selection as I may have obtained a bit better
than 3/1 about him. As it is, he's worth a wager at those odds but, in
line with my new policy, he's not a 2pt win wager and I can't recommend
a wager at odds less than 7/2.
There will be plenty of opportunity for wagers over the Xmas holiday,
with Boxing Day and the 27th December looking like providing great
racing. For the King George on Boxing Day, I cannot see Long Run being
beaten if he's in the form of last year, but he is not invincible as
Kauto Star showed LTO. What should be remembered is that last year Kauto
Star was ridden by AP McCoy in this race, and I felt at the time he
bustled Kauto Star along when he didn't need to be. Ruby Walsh
understands the horse well, and he could conjure up a tear-jerking run
from him. For 3rd place, I'm going for recent Sandown winner GOLAN WAY
who (hopefully) will have the stamina to last out the trip at what
should be a heart-breaking pace.
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