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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 17 December 2011

It may be heavy-going today

The 406th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

There have been no selections this week on the blog, but it’s always worthwhile visiting here anyway as DYSTORIA’S REVENGE was strongly suggested as having a decent eachway chance midweek (the only reason I’ve not posted up any selections is that I’m in a new job and having difficulty accessing the monitoring websites that I use to “proof” my selections) and it only went and won at 22/1.

Today is another day, and what a day it poses to be.

At Ascot, the opening handicap hurdle sees one from my alert list DUSKY BOB, revert back to hurdles. Were the trip today less than 3-miles then he’d be the one I’d be on, but he hasn’t looked to have the stamina for this trip before today.
In the next at 1:25 another from my alert list is the race fav RENARD. He looks well-placed here to make it 4 wins on the bounce, as he’s not yet looked like stopping his improvement. But, I was on Politeo LTO when 2nd at Ascot over 2m3f and this drop in trip to 2m1f will suit him as will the soft going, as he’s won on that in Ireland twice. I can’t split the pair, a reverse forecast maybe?
There is no way I can oppose BIG BUCKS in the Long Walk Hurdle, and John Francome said on Morning Line that if you’d put £100 on all his 1st hurdle race which he won and then rolled-up the winnings every time he’s race (and won) since, you’d have over a million quid today. I’ll have to check that.
The handicap chase at 3:05 over 3-mile looks a cracker. There are 2 off my alert list in it; Benbane Head and Reve De Sivola. The race fav is The Minack who I think is vulnerable as he probably wants further than 3-mile now. He’s also up 9lb for his LTO win, and while the form has worked out well, BENBANE HEAD is 10lb better-off today with him. REVE DE SIVOLA has been called a few names and he may not have won at trips further than 2m5f (5 races over further) he has run well in defeat in some top races. His run LTO has worked out particularly well and he will be staying on late. Given his style of running and that is he drops out mid-race, if you want a wager on him then you’ll likely get much longer odds than 5/1 if you are prepared to risk a wager mid-race. For a traditional pre-race wager, BENBANE HEAD at 8/1 (Bet365) looks the value.
The Ladbroke Hurdle at 3:35 is too tough to call, tho’ DESERT CRY at 14/1 looks well treated as he’s won on heavy, and his win LTO showed much improved form and it was run in a very quick time.

At Haydock, the going there is heavy. I do not like heavy going, especially at Haydock as it decimates fields and makes form almost obsolete. That said, it should prove no problem to WOODY WALLER in the 1:40 as he’s already won on heavy going.
The feature race at Haydock is the Tommy Whittle Chase over 3-mile. The going may find-out top-weight Cape Tribulation (who is on my alert list). It is asking a lot to expect Cannington Brook to make this his 1st chase win, tho’ he should be thereabouts. When COURT RED HANDED won LTO, my money was on the 3rd Wolf Moon. That form has worked out well enough, and at 10/1 (Blue Square & Stan James) he’s eachway value.

I’ll give Newcastle a miss.

Haydock 2:45, COURT RED HANDED, 1pt eachway @ 10/1 (Stan James)
Ascot 3:05, BENBANE HEAD, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)

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Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. good stuff Ian a always I have been too busy to devote enough time to study so will be following your selections today #belucky