INVICTUS to show he's worth £162,000

The 396th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) so let’s take a look-back at the weekend’s racing.

Just the one selection on Saturday and that was MEANUS DANDY who looked well treated on OR140 based on his previous run in the “Badger” chase. He was still well there when jockey Ruby Walsh pulled-him-up before the 15th of 24 fences as he was lame. Trainer Paul Nicholls reported (on twitter) that he was “sore, but ok”. I reckon he would have been 2nd on Saturday had he completed as (in hindsight) the winner Deep Purple was thrown-in off OR149 given he’d won the Charlie Hall in 2009 and is very much an “autumn” horse having now won 9 of 13 races between 1st Oct-31st Dec, but only 2 of 10 between 1st Jan – 30th Apr.

SIZING EUROPE silenced the doubters in the Tingle Creek with a spectacular performance; as such he remains the one they have to beat in the QM Champion Chase next March. That said, there is not that much between him and Big Zeb, altho’ the latter needs to jump cleanly to produce his best as he is apt to make errors when under pressure. Given their dominance of this division, these two should be shorter odds than 3/1 and 6/1 respectively until another realistic challenger appears. Personally, I reckon that challenger could be Master Minded if Paul Nicholls can find they key to making him return to his best next March, and current odds (20/1 with Sportingodds) suggest he’s worth a few quid antepost. Earlier, AL FEROF won the Henry VIII Grade 1 novice chase but I’m not sure that performance warrants him a 7/1 quote for the Arkle as the horse he beat - For Non Stop – is significantly inferior to him over hurdles and had no chance of matching him on the run-in.

At Aintree, I was right when I said FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent as he massacred what looked to be a competitive field. He comes from a cracking good jumps family and trainer Phil Hobbs knows how to extract plenty of improvement from his mature hurdlers.

At Chepstow on Saturday, an old friend Le Beau Bai finally won again for the 1st time since Feb ’10 (his 12th race since that win). He produced his best form in that period when 2nd (off OR137) on his 2nd run last season when racing over hurdles on heavy going. I recommended him as a selection when 3rd in Haydock’s National Trial (won by Silver By Nature) last March, but he’d looked out of sorts since as he needs an extreme test over on heavy going. As such, thru’ no fault of his own, he’d slipped 10lb’s down to OR127 but I thought the 3-mile trip at Chepstow on Saturday would be too short for him and he’d arrive on the scene too late. He looks well-in (even if he’s raised 10lbs) should he race on heavy going again this season.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings; one at my local track of Plumpton and the other at Musselburgh.

At Plumpton, the opening novice hurdles has some interesting recruits from the flat, so get your notebook ready. Next up at 1:10, we have the Irish raider Gift of Dgab sent over by AJ Martin. Martin has even flown-over jockey Davy Russell, but as he’s only given the lad 2 rides in the past 5 years (both were beaten) that’s not a “signpost” for me. For all his renown, Martin has only had 3 chase winners from 64 runners (in chases) in the past 5 years – hardly stats to be scared of. Paul Nicholls has his only runner today in this – Indian Daudaie – but he usually sends hurdlers to Plumpton, and there isn’t a great deal of market support considering the horse has the benefit of the huge 4yo age allowance in this. As such, I reckon Alan King’s INVICTUS, who cost connections £162,000 in April 2010 after winning a 3-mile PTP in Ireland, could go off at generous odds in this when really he should be trading at less than the 5/4 he won at on his chasing debut LTO.

The rest of the card has fairly ordinary races with one-paced runners – a case of which horse happens to be leading after the last fence being the winner; but which will it be?

I can’t see anything worthwhile at Musselburgh at all.

There is no “official” selection today as the only race that looks worthwhile at Plumpton has only 5 runners and, as such, there isn’t likely to be much movement in the odds. The 2/1 about INVICTUS is “fair” but I’d hope for a little more, at least 9/4 but more like 5/2. If I can get 5/2 then I will be having a wager as there is a small doubt about him handling today’s going (soft).

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Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.