Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!

The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)

Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.

Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.

Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.

The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.

Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.

The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.

Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.

I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.

Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

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Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.