There is always tomorrow

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.

One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.

Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.

If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.

The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.

I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.

There is no selection today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

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Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.