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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 8 December 2011

Is ROLLING ACES a future Gold Cup winner?

The 399th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day without a firm “blog” selection yesterday, but mine is not a blog that puts up selections just for the sake of it. I wager my own money on each and every selection to the level of £40 a point, and if I can’t find a selection to risk my money on then I’m not going to risk my readers money on it.
I can’t say fairer than that, can I?

Today it is going to be a brief blog as altho’ there are 3 meetings and the one at Huntingdon features the Peterborough Chase, today (Thursday) is the first day of a new venture for me and I am writing this blog on Wednesday evening as I can’t guarantee getting this blog online on Thursday.

As I said, 3 meetings at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton.

The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at 2:00pm should be won by SOMERSBY as he is about 10lb ahead (in my opinion) of his nearest rival which is The Nightingale. If I could get the Racing Post betting forecast odds of 9/4, then I’d make SOMERSBY a 2pt win wager but, as I write, the odds for SOMERSBY are just 7/4 and - while that is still “value” (I reckon he should be odds-on at 4/5) – it is against my principles to recommend a wager at those odds. It may be worth wagering on a straight-forecast: SOMERSBY to beat The Nightingale.

At Ludlow, there is a very interesting chase handicap at 2:40. ROSSBRIN was most unlucky to meet a horse with unlimited stamina LTO, and there is little chance of that tomorrow as most of these are fairly well exposed. Roseneath is up another 8lb for a fairly ordinary win LTO. Inside Dealer strikes me as a horse that prefers trips less than 3-mile. Simply Wings wants the going soft/heavy (it is “good” going). Rockiteer has gone up 9lbs for winning a weak race LTO and he will struggle off OR126. Midnight Haze will also find the going on the quick side for him, but he is an interesting runner who goes well fresh. Cast Cada has won all 3 times he’s raced at this trip, but he usually needs a run and this looks competitive for him. Oscar Prairie has questions to answer after his run LTO, tho’ if he were pulled-up in haste he could be an interesting runner. As for Pigeon Island, is this trip really what he needs? He will be running-on late, but will it be too late? ROSSBRIN is 11/2 (Paddy Power) and that looks more than fair as we know he’s fit, jumps well, goes right-handed, and he runs off the same rating as last week.

Before then, at 1:10pm, we see THE COCKNEY MACKEM return to the track after he unseated LTO. I reckon he is much better than OR122 and so long as we don’t see another novice-style error, he should win this easily as some of the others look handicapped to the hilt on what they’ve shown over fences so far. Vic Chandler go 11/4 and that looks more than fair.

At Taunton, I reckon we will see the next step to eventual grade 1 chase glory of ROLLING ACES from the Paul Nicholls stable. Trainers like Nicholls follow certain paths with their better horses and, so far, ROLLING ACES is following in the footsteps of Denman.

Ludlow 1:10, THE COCKNEY MACKEM, 1pt win @ 11/4 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Ludlow 2:40, ROSSBRIN, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, BOG)

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Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Ian see we are head to head in the 1.10 at Ludlow. Good Luck.