Thanks for the memories

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.

SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.

I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?

Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.

I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.

There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.

The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.

There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.