The 403rd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.
What a result! Yesterday's 3m & 1½fh'cap chase proved to be a nightmare for in-running punters when the clear leader – Corkage – fell at the 2nd-last fence and, in doing so, impeded the staying-on Quel Ballistic unseating his rider. That left Eighteen Carat in a clear lead but, as I wrote yesterday, he wanted likely to stay the trip and was already a beaten horse before the 2nd-last. As such, he was running on empty and DYSTONIA'S REVENGE, who I knew would relish this test of stamina, came from well-off the pace to lead close home at the incredible odds of 22/1. You would not have given the horse a chance, even after the 2nd-last as he was possibly 20-lengths off the pace then and even at the final fence he had 15-lengths to make up. Let's be honest, the horse would not have won had Quel Ballistic not been impeded at the 2nd-last fence, but he would most likely have run 2nd to that horse. Corkage, who fell at the 2nd-last when well clear, has now failed to complete in 4 of his 5 chase starts and those who took 1.20 in-running on him approaching the 2nd-last should have taken that into account – but they didn't. As is reported in today's Racing Post, Corkage, Quel Ballistic and Eighteen Carat all traded in-running at less than 1.20 and eventual winner DYSTONIA'S REVENGE traded at 999 to £18.
As I did not put DYSTONIA'S REVENGE up as a selection with one of my monitoring services (I use Betting League and Tip Exchange) I will NOT be taking that win into account when calculating my profit. I am endeavouring to establish a link via my mobile phone to register my selections Monday-to-Friday with the above monitoring sites, but in the meantime, any selections not posted there will not count.
EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle, was indeed well schooled (as I wrote yesterday) and ran out an easy winner at 2/1.
There is a decent meeting today at Newbury and only the one race takes my eye and that's the 12:50 a 3-mile class 3 handicap chase. A couple of weeks back I tipped WYKE HILL and he made an uncharacteristic error early-on and fell. He comes here today on the same rating and this improving horse will take a good deal of beating today. The fav, Paul Nicholls Minella Stars will need to improve a lot on what he showed LTO, and My Boy Paddy and Penny Max are too short in the market on form shown to date. I expected WYKE HILL to be under 4/1 for this as it looks an easier task that that which he faced LTO and he started 5/1 for that race. Therefore, current odds of 13/2 (Tote and Betfred, 6/1 elsewhere) look the value to me. I will be having 1pt eachway on him.
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Well done on yesterday Ian. You have to take any good luck that comes your way - in my experience, there is never a shortage of bad luck to balance it out !
ReplyDeleteHi Ian, I watched the race and I'm amazed only 18 was laid at 999/1. It proves how careful you have to be laying horses on the NH. Gutsy display from horse and jockey. At they said on RUK: ''No one who have questioned the jockey if she had pulled-up'', such was the distance behind.Keep up the good work. Always a good read.
ReplyDeleteThanks lads.
ReplyDeleteTodays selection WYKE HILL was a very safe 2nd @ 15/2 which (in my opinion) was generous. Place money banked.