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Saturday, 10 March 2012

Paul Nicholls in tip-top form

The 454th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Yesterday’s selection KASBADALI did not appreciate the soft going and yet still stayed on well enough to take 3rd after the last flight in a race run at a sound gallop. I reckon when the sun starts to shine and the ground dries in the next couple of weeks he’ll run better, and he could be one for Aintree. The winner Hildisvini stayed-on really well, and it expected to make a chaser, but he’ll need to improve his jumping as he took a few of these hurdles a bit low. So then, I’ve given 3 losers on the trot and lost 3pts in the process. This time last year I gave the 14/1 winner Holmwood Legend as my only selection and then gave a winning double on the Monday before Cheltenham; so let’s see if I can get us back in a confident mood today.

We have 3 jumps meetings at Sandown, Ayr, and Chepstow.
At Sandown, Paul Nicholls has his team in tip-top form with 3 winners from 7 runners yesterday. He has Aldertune (who is a previous blog selection) in the final race at Sandown, who is dropped in trip having not won in a long time at 2m6f+ and Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle. The race is full of old friends of mine: Sound Stage would win this easily if at his best now that he’s dropped to OR120, but he seems to have lost his way. You Know Yourself is another who would go well, if the going were good-to-soft, but it looks too quick for him. Inside Dealer couldn’t win this race last year off the same mark of OR125, and I think Cool Friend will need to be gifted the race to win it as she seems to be one-paced at the business end. I’m going to go out on a limb with COIS FARRAIG who is Paul Webber’s only runner today. He’s run at this meeting for the last 2 years and has only had 12 races in all. After winning a Newbury novice chase he was rated OR134 and was then highly tried (ran in the Scilly Isles won by Medermit, with Captain Chris in 2nd). He does not stay a yard further than 2m5f, and so it was not unexpected that he faded quickly LTO over 3-mile at Ascot from 4-out. He was 6/1 that day, and he’s 14/1 for this and I think he’s a good eachway wager in this 8-runner race.

At Ayr, Sammy Spiderman has only ever won at Ayr on soft/heavy going, and that’s what he has today. He didn’t win here LTO tho’ and he may find Mr WOODS too strong for him in the 3:25 there.
At Cheptsow, Jason Maguire has a nice book of rides and I especially like BUFFALO BOB in the 4:50. He’s won on heavy going and stays further than this trip and also being a prominent runner he will ensure a stamina test. Odds of 4/1 are available with a few “best odds guaranteed” bookies, but 9/2 with Stan James looks stand-out value.

As much as I like the look of COIS FARRAIG, if there is some pace on early in this race then he may struggle to get into contention especially as Aldertune stays 3-mile and will likely be up there “in-the-van” thru’out. So I’m not advising a wager on him, but would not put anyone off having a “fun” bet. For me, BUFFALO BOB looks the wager as he started the season on OR131 and has won off OR126, and he’s on OR120 today. He had no chance LTO over an inadequate trip, so 9/2 today looks great value.

Cheptstow 4:50, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win @ 9/2 (Stan James)

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1 comment:

  1. Buffalo Bob does the business, what a great win!


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